ACC Championship Game: What if Clemson loses to Virginia?

If Virginia wins the ACC Championship, Clemson’s CFP title hopes would be in deep trouble.

Clemson football has appeared unbeatable most of the season. But the Virginia Cavaliers, who’ve had a surprisingly successful season themselves, are dreaming of an ACC championship.

Nobody is giving the No. 23 Cavs a chance right now. This game, like much of the No. 3 Tigers’ schedule, is expected to be a quick tune-up before Clemson begins CFP preparations.

However, it is not foolish to think that UVA could pull off a win this weekend. Yes, since their near-death experience in Chapel Hill, the Tigers have looked better but against weak competition. The Cavs are the only ranked team on Clemson’s schedule and Virginia boasts a scoring offense that’s actually ranked ahead of Florida, Michigan and Georgia.

So say the Cavaliers do it. They pull off a win in Charlotte and claim the ACC Championship. Let’s talk about the easy part: what would change for UVA’s bowl picture? Either way, it looks like the Cavs are destined for the Orange Bowl, so nothing really changes for UVA.

The Orange Bowl is guaranteed the ACC champion if they are not in the playoff. The Cavs have no shot at the playoff so they would head to Miami.

Even if Virginia loses to Clemson, the Cavs would head to Miami anyway. Clemson would head to the playoff so the next highest-ranked ACC team would take their place in the Orange Bowl.

The committee historically hasn’t dropped teams too much after losing a conference championship game so UVA would be that next highest, and only other ranked ACC team.

Now the hard part. What would happen to Clemson if the Cavs pull the upset? The Tigers don’t have the strongest of schedules. Sure they are undefeated and have won in impressive fashion, but the committee would have to weigh Clemson’s 12-1 record with their weak schedule.

Is a 12-1 record in the ACC really that much more impressive than a 12-1 record in the AAC? Or is a 12-1 ACC non-champion more deserving of a playoff spot than a 12-1 conference champion from the Big 12 or Pac-12? Those are questions the committee would need to answer when ranking Clemson.

Most likely not though. Surely the committee has thought hard about it, but they only seem to be ranking Clemson so high since they’re in a Power Five conference and haven’t lost yet. Clemson hasn’t given them a reason to not rank them so high.

It’s like Christmas shopping. After overthinking it and stressing yourself out, you end up sending a good gift to your in-laws in South Carolina. Not because you want to or think they deserve one, but because you have no good reason not to. Out of obligation, basically.

Clemson is that in-law from South Carolina. But a loss in the ACC Championship game would give the committee all the reason they need to not send the Tigers a Christmas gift, er, not rank them in the top four.

Could Clemson compete with and maybe beat anyone else in the top four? Absolutely. But unfortunately, if they lose this weekend their fate will be left to a judgment call by the committee. Given all the variables, the committee probably wouldn’t put Clemson in the playoff.

A loss against Virginia would likely put Clemson behind Oklahoma and Utah (if they win this weekend), leaving the Tigers at No. 5. The only hope for Clemson to get an NY6 spot at that point would be by taking the at-large spot in the Cotton Bowl, which they should get if they do in fact only fall to No. 5, or even No. 6 behind Georgia.

So if Virginia beats Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, the Cavaliers would go to the Orange Bowl and the Tigers would go to the Cotton Bowl.

Now if Clemson takes care of business against the deceptively solid Cavaliers as they should, that’s like your in-laws coming over, doing your lawn and bringing Chick-Fil-A for you. In other words, they’ve earned themselves a good Christmas gift, er, a playoff spot.

For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.