Champions League scenarios: What’s at stake in the final round of UCL group matches?

The final round of Champions League group stage matches are upon us this week. With so much left to be settled, let’s take a look at all scenarios in each group.

There’s nothing quite like the Champions League. It is the greatest club competition in the world, and this week brings the final set of group stage games. There are many crucial games to play over the final matchday, with a number scenarios that can play out before the field is cut in half for the knockout phase. After Matchday 6, we will see which clubs enter the draw for the Round of 16.

Here are all the group standings and what’s at stake heading into the final matchday:

Group A – Paris Saint-Germain (13 pts) vs. Galatasaray (2 pts); Club Brugge (3 pts) vs Real Madrid (8 pts)

  • Following the 2-2 draw at the Santiago Bernabeu, both Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have qualified for the knockout stages. PSG are set to go through as the group winners, currently on 13 points while Madrid sit second with 8 points.
  • Brugge and Galatasaray are jockeying for third place and a spot in the Europa League.

Group B – Bayern Munich (15 pts) vs Tottenham (10 pts) ; Olympiakos (1 pt) vs Crvena Zvezda (3 pts)

  • Similar to the previous group, both Bayern Munich and Tottenham have already qualified for the Round of 16. Bayern Munich are the group winners currently on 15 points, with Tottenham on 10 points. The Bavarians can complete a perfect group stage should they beat Spurs in Munich on Wednesday.
  • The other two sides are battling for a Europa League spot.

Group C – Dinamo Zagreb (5 pts) vs Manchester City (11 pts); Shaktar Donetsk (6 pts) vs Atalanta (4 pts)

  • Manchester City are the only team to have qualified for the latter rounds, they have won the group and are currently on 11 points. The rest of this group is interesting, as Shaktar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb and Atalanta are separated by two points.
  • Shaktar Donetsk will advance with a win over Atalanta OR with a draw as long as Dinamo fail to win.
  • Dinamo Zagreb will advance with a win over Manchester City AND a draw/loss by Shaktar Donetsk.
  • Atalanta will advance with a win over Shaktar Donetsk AND a draw/loss by Dinamo Zagreb.

Group D – Bayer Leverkusen (6 pts) vs Juventus (13 pts); Atletico Madrid (7 pts) vs Lokomotiv Moscow (3 pts)

  • Juventus have advanced to the Round of 16 as group winners with 13 points currently. Atletico Madrid are second on 7 points and Bayer Leverkusen are a point behind in third.
  • Atletico Madrid will advance with a win over Lokomotiv Moscow OR if Leverkusen fail to win.
  • Bayer Leverkusen will advance with a win over Juventus AND a draw/loss by Atletico Madrid.

Group E – RB Salzburg (7 pts) vs Liverpool (10 pts); Napoli (9 pts) vs Genk (1 pt)

  • Surprisingly, reigning champions Liverpool haven’t secured a place in the Round of 16 yet following their 1-1 draw at home against Napoli last time out. Everything is up for grabs this week.
  • Liverpool can win the group with a win over Red Bull Salzburg, they can qualify with a draw OR even with a loss if Napoli don’t beat Genk.
  • Napoli can advance with a win/draw over Genk OR if Salzburg fail to win. The Serie A side can also become group winners with a win AND a loss by Liverpool.
  • Red Bull Salzberg can advance with a win AND a loss by Napoli.

Group F – Inter Milan (7 pts) vs Barcelona (11pts); Borussia Dortmund (7 pts) vs Slavia Prague (2 pts)

  • The “Group of Death” has been tight and really entertaining. Barcelona are already the group winners on 11 points, but after that it gets interesting.
  • Inter Milan can advance with a draw/win over Barcelona AND a draw/loss by Borussia Dortmund. Milan own the superior tiebreakder thanks to head-to-head goal difference over Dortmund after they split their meetings. Basically Inter either need to beat Barcelona or match whatever result Dortmund gets.
  • Borussia Dortmund can advance with a win over Slavia Prague AND a draw/loss by Inter Milan.

Group G – Lyon (7 pts) vs RB Leipzig (10 pts); Benfica (4 pts) vs Zenit (7 pts)

  • RB Leipzig have already qualified, but can win the group with at least a draw against Lyon.
  • Zenit will advance with a win/draw over Benfica OR a loss/draw by Lyon. Zenit own the head-to-head edge over Lyon after beating them 2-0 in Matchday 1, meaning the Russian side just have to match Lyon’s result.
  • Lyon will advance and win the group with a win over Leipzig. The French side can also qualify with a draw AND a loss by Zenit.

Group H – Ajax (10 pts) vs Valencia (8 pts); Chelsea (8 pts) vs Lille (1 pt)

  • The most entertaining group of this competition has seen the top three teams separated by two points, with last year’s semifinalists Ajax leading the pack by two points.
  • Ajax will win the group with a win over Valencia. The Dutch side can also advance with a draw or even a loss AND a draw/loss by Chelsea.
  • Valencia will advance with a win over Ajax, or the Spanish side can also get through with a draw/loss as long as Chelsea suffers the same result.
  • Chelsea will advance with a win, or they can get through with a draw AND a loss by Valencia.
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