Fantasy football Wild-Card Weekend: Exploitable inefficiencies

Find out which players you should be considering when entering your NFL DFS lineups this week.

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Wild-Card Weekend!
Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA, a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Given the size of this weekends slate, instead of analyzing solely based on efficiencies, I’ll give some ideas as to why I’ll be so overweight on two specific teams this weekend.

Houston Texans: 26th Overall (Pass 26th, Run 22nd)

Buffalo will head south to Houston to take on the Texans, in a game in which Houston opened as a three point favorite. Since opening the line has moved off of the key number of 3, to 2.5. In addition the total has been on the move, moving from 41.5 to 44. Although it’s still early, this provides a foundation of why you may want to be backing the Bills’ offense in this spot.

First and foremost, the Bills will have an enticing matchup from an efficiency stand point, as the Texans rank 26th in defensive efficiency. The Bills haven’t faced the most difficult slate of opposing defenses overall, but have of late. Excluding week 17, the Bills opponent defenses ranked an average of 2.66 in defensive efficiency from weeks 14 to 16.

Secondly, and maybe the most important question will be, how much pressure can the Houston defense generate on Josh Allen. Allen’s struggles have been in large part been due to his inability to pass under pressure. Luckily, this week Allen will face a Texans team that ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate, at 5.2%. Houston has only managed 30 sacks this season. If Watt’s return to the lineup doesn’t alter this metric, Allen could have a field day.

Last but not least, not enough has been talked about Buffalo’s increased pace of play. Before the Thanksgiving game, offensive play-caller Brian Daboll moved up to the press box to get a better idea of what the defense was doing and relay that information to Allen. Similarly to what McVay has done in Los Angeles, this has increased the Bills pace of play over the recent weeks. I would expect more the same this week. I’ll be over weight on players such as Allen, Singletary, Brown, Beasley, and Knox.

Minnesota Vikings: 7th Overall (Pass 7th, Run 9th)

Saturday nights’ game will feature a rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle, between the Vikings and Saints. This time the Vikings will head to the Super Dome, in a game in which the Saints are roughly an 8 point favorite. The total on this game opened at 47 but has since been bet up to 50. I tend to agree with the move and believe that the Saints should have success on offense, in this spot.

Unlike the matchup for the Bills, the Minnesota defense looks much better on paper, from an efficiency standpoint. However, if you’ve watched this defense, you’ve seen the glaring holes in their game, especially against tough competition. In games in which they faced a top five offense or better, they allowed an average of 29 points against (Week 9 vs. KC, Week 10 vs. DAL, Week 13 vs. SEA). On the other hand in games in which New Orleans has faced a top 8 defense or better, they’ve scored an average of 36.75 points.

Another factor to consider in this matchup should be health of the Saints offense. Alvin Kamara had seen a down turn in production after his ankle injury early this year, but has since had his best two games of the season, in back to back weeks. In addition, Tre’Quan Smith has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, since returning to the lineup. The Saints simply have too many playmakers to handle and while all the skill position players will be chalky in DFS this week, they’re the type of chalk you may need to eat in your lineups.