Bracketology: How many Big Ten teams will make the NCAA Tournament?

In this bracketology update, we look at the Big Ten who could send a record 12 teams to the NCAA Tournament, but who is on the bubble and who is in?

Who’s in and who’s out in the Big Ten?

College basketball has been absolutely wacky this year but the Big Ten is on pace to potentially make some history with a dozen tournament teams. The Big East in 2011 holds the record with 11 but ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects a dozen are in the NCAA Tournament entering Tuesday’s games.

That version of the Big East featured 16 teams, however, so the Big Ten’s accomplishment would be far more impressive. Assuming all 12 schools (sorry to fans of Northwestern and Nebraska, who have no shot at the dance) make the NCAA Tournament, that would mean an incredible 85.7% of the league’s membership would have tickets punched for March Madness.

That number does seem high, especially with over a month left of conference play and plenty of opportunities for carnage. There isn’t a truly bad loss in the conference outside of the aforementioned Northwestern and Nebraska, but the accumulation of losses could be a factor with the selection committee.

Let’s go team-by-team and take a look at what could happen with the 12 Big Ten contenders, starting at the top of the standings with Michigan State.

Michigan State Spartans (16-6 Overall, 8-3 in Big Ten)

The preseason no. 1, Michigan State has had to reshape its team after losing senior guard Joshua Langford at the start of the year to injury. The Spartans have mostly taken care of business, with a collection of good-to-great wins and no losses to teams that aren’t at least on the tournament bubble. Tom Izzo’s team will definitely have a ticket punched for March Madness.

Illinois Fighting Illini (16-6, 8-3)

The Big Ten has been full of surprises this season, but the Illini have to rank towards the top of the list. Behind a solid 1-2 punch of Ayo Donsumo (15.6 ppg) and Kofi Cockburn (14.0 ppg), Illinois has beaten up on the Big Ten to surge into a first-place tie with the Spartans. A weak non-conference schedule means that the Illini need more wins to secure their position, and their next two games at home against Maryland and Michigan State provide great opportunities to do just that.

Maryland Terrapins (17-4, 7-3)

With all due respect to the Illini, the second-best team in the Big Ten is Maryland. The Terrapins lost only once in non-league play at Seton Hall, and their three conference losses came on the road at Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. It would take an absolute collapse for Maryland to land on the bubble, let alone miss the tournament.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (16-6, 7-4)

Head coach Steve Pikiell deserves a lot of credit for guiding the Scarlet Knights into position to make their first NCAA Tournament since 1991. Losses to Pittsburgh and St. Bonaventure are troublesome, but Rutgers can also point to a win over Seton Hall as proof of how far the program has come. There are a few quality wins on this resume, however, so Rutgers could use another statement victory or two to cancel out those bad losses.

Iowa Hawkeyes (16-6, 7-4)

Iowa is about as consistent a program as there is in the Big Ten, and this season they have a bona fide star in center Luka Garza. The big man averages 23 and 10 for the Hawkeyes, who feature an elite offense that is really good at sharing the basketball, ranking eighth in the country in assists. As long as Iowa keeps on keeping on they should be good to go in March.

Penn State Nittany Lions (16-5, 6-4)

Like Rutgers before them, Penn State is in the unusual position of being right in the thick of things for the NCAA Tournament as February approaches. The Nittany Lions have only one questionable loss on their resume to Ole Miss, but they can counterbalance it with victories over Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan, and Syracuse. Penn State feels secure at the moment, but picking up a win over Michigan State, Illinois, or Iowa would do wonders for their chances.

Wisconsin Badgers (13-9, 6-5)

Wisconsin already has nine losses, which is not great, with a three-loss stretch to Richmond, New Mexico and NC State early in the season looming large. The Badgers do have a great home-court advantage that has produced wins over Maryland and Michigan State, but they need a few more wins away from the Kohl Center to feel really confident.

Indiana Hoosiers (15-7, 5-6)

The Hoosiers are the first Big Ten squad with a losing conference record but their huge win over Florida State in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge is the gift that keeps on giving. In the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Hoosiers need to go on a mini win streak or risk losing their place in the Big Ten hierarchy.

Purdue Boilermakers (12-10, 5-6)

Purdue is hovering dangerously close to .500 and their major issue is loss accumulation. The other major problem is the Boilermakers can’t win on the road. The only win Purdue has away from home is against Northwestern and they will need to find a way to pick up a win or two against a quality team away from Mackey Arena.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-10, 5-6)

The Golden Gophers are on the thinnest ice with Lunardi, rating as one of the last four teams in the field. Minnesota doesn’t really have a bad loss but there are too many of them to overcome. In order to avoid getting left at the door as a 15 or 16 loss entry, the Golden Gophers need to get some more marquee victories to make the field.

Ohio State Buckeyes (14-7, 4-6)

The Buckeyes have a few huge victories, including a win over Kentucky in Las Vegas. But they are down toward the bottom of the Big Ten standings after dropping six of their first eight league games, including getting swept by Minnesota. In terms of pure talent, Ohio State is one of the best in the league so don’t expect them to stay this low for long.

Michigan Wolverines (13-8, 4-6)

Michigan has significant resume boosters with wins over a fully-healthy North Carolina and Gonzaga in the Battle 4 Atlantis. A four-game losing streak in Big Ten play has the Wolverines looking up the standings but they have the talent to turn things around in a hurry.

So how many Big Ten teams make the NCAA Tournament?

10. The league’s bid total likely won’t break the record because it’s unlikely Minnesota and Purdue do enough to remain in the field while contenders from other leagues step up. Rutgers and Illinois could also slide closer to the bubble since they have few top-end victories, but in the end, they should make the field. A projection of 10 teams making the NCAA Tournament feels realistic.

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