What will Patrick Mahomes’ contract extension look like?

Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes could be in line for the richest contract in NFL history this offseason. What could that look like?

As the old adage goes, the rich get richer. Patrick Mahomes could be the richest of them all soon.

After taking the NFL by storm in his first full season as a starter by throwing for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, Mahomes achieved the ultimate goal this year. At 24 years old, he became the youngest player to win both an MVP and Super Bowl MVP in league history when he and the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

Although Mahomes is under contract for the 2020 season and the Chiefs have a fifth-year option they can pick up on him for 2021, both sides want to be partners long-term. Because of his historically impressive start to what could be a Hall of Fame career, it is expected to be the largest contract in NFL history.

In 2020, the superstar quarterback holds a cap hit of $5,226,413. This is the final season of the four-year contract he signed with Kansas City when he was drafted in 2017. Should K.C. choose to pick up the fifth-year option on him, that price would jump to the transition tag figure. That level of payment yields the average of the 10 highest-paid players at a designated position. For Mahomes, he’d be making approximately $24 million in 2021.

After that, the extension kicks in. The general thought is Mahomes should receive a contract near $40M in average annual value (AAV) and over $100M in guarantees. Assuming it’s for four or (more likely) five years, this would crown Mahomes the highest-paid player in the league today — and ever.

As things currently stand, here are some of the largest quarterback contracts in the NFL, sorted by AAV:

• Russell Wilson: $140M over four years ($35M AAV)
• Ben Roethlisberger: $68M over two years ($34M AAV)
• Aaron Rodgers: $134M over four years ($33.5M AAV)
• Jared Goff: $134M over four years ($33.5M AAV)
• Carson Wentz: $128 over four years ($32M AAV)

Multiple variables come into play here. Firstly, the length of the contract. Kansas City should want Mahomes on the team for as long as possible. A six-year commitment would be ideal for them, but five will likely be the starting and ending point on Mahomes’ behalf. At the projected $40M/year minimum, that calls for a $200M contract.

Guarantees must also be taken into account. If Goff is getting $110M in guarantees, Mahomes will command close to $150M, if not a bit more.

With a new collective bargaining agreement on the horizon after the 2020 season, salaries will likely spike. Mahomes’ agent, Leigh Steinberg, is well aware of that. Mahomes could command somewhere in the neighborhood of $42-44 million per season on a new deal. Just over 82 percent of Jared Goff’s extension is guaranteed and on a $210 contract for Mahomes, that would equate to roughly $172 in guarantees.

Final prediction: $210M over five years. $170M guaranteed.

Mahomes is the best player in the league at this point, and he’ll be compensated as such. The deal will look crazy at first but once the new CBA sets in next year, it may become quite the deal for both sides.