Fantasy Football: How will Tom Brady impact Mike Evans and Chris Godwin?

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were both top-five fantasy wide receivers on a per-game basis last year, but can they sustain that level with Tom Brady under center?

Tom Brady is coming to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he’ll have a quarterback-friendly offense with a nice array of weapons. Mike Evans is well-established among the best wide receivers in the NFL, and Chris Godwin had a breakout campaign last year with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns.

Despite each missing games at the end of the season, Evans and Godwin both finished as top-five fantasy wide receivers on a per-game basis overall and in standard scoring leagues last year. In total full-point PPR scoring, Evans fell to WR11 as Godwin stayed put at WR2.

Evans (121 targets) and Godwin (118 targets) combined to take a 39.4 percent target share for the Buccaneers last year (607 targets). Add Breshad Perriman’s 69 targets, and that becomes a 50.7 percent target share just to the top three wide receivers. Tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate combined for 108 targets (a 17.8 percent target share).

If the Buccaneers’ defense improves in line with the deeper metrics they posted last year (yards allowed per play, Football Outsiders’ DVOA), the offense will naturally be throwing a bit less. Brady also tends to spread the ball around. While Evans and Godwin will still be the engines of the passing game and be in line for over 100 targets each, more target share will surely go to Howard, Brate and the running backs.

Evans will be the best wide receiver Brady has had since the peak of Randy Moss in New England, and Godwin is a younger, more talented version of Julian Edelman in some ways. Both will be worth drafting as a WR1 in fantasy, within the first 10 wide receivers off the board by the end of the second round. If I had to pick one, Evans’ track record gets the nod (however slightly) over Godwin as ADPs become clear when drafts get rolling this summer.