The Fantasy Outlook for five big NFL names switching teams

Analyzing the five biggest skill position moves at the start of the NFL offseason and whether you should be optimistic or pessimistic about their fantasy outlook in a new uniform.

Big names change teams every year. But this year has a different feel to it. Two Quarterbacks, 20 and 15 year veterans, switching teams. Two Wide Receivers, widely considered elite, will also don new uniforms. Add to that, a new highest paid Tight End in the NFL. So it’s not just big dollars being spent, it’s big names changing their addresses… including the biggest name maybe ever…

QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Whether Brady has “lost a step” at 42 is up for debate. But what is not up for debate is the fact that Brady’s new WR’s/TE’s (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard) are leaps and bounds better than his 2019 group. Add that to the fact that the Buccaneers running game remains a mystery at the moment, 4,500 yards and 30+ touchdowns is not unreasonable with the best weapons he’s had since 2007.

Fantasy Outlook: Optimistic

QB Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts

He threw for over 4,600 yards but only accounted for 23 touchdown passes, his fewest in 11 seasons. Reuniting with Head Coach Frank Reich gives reasons for optimism. However, Rivers had difficulty pushing the ball down field last season, having the worst TD-to-INT ratio of his career, only a +3. He is also going to a team with inferior weapons in the passing game, T.Y. Hilton and then what else?

Fantasy Outlook: Pessimistic

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

Hopkins is a truly elite receiver, evidenced by the fact that his 1,165 yards and 7 touchdowns were a down year by his own standards. Kyler Murray is an ascending Quarterback entering his 2nd season, arguably on the same career trajectory as DeShaun Watson. Hopkins had a career year 115-1572-11 during Watson’s sophomore season. Expect numbers closer to those in Arizona than what he put forth in 2019.

Fantasy Outlook: Optimistic

WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

The Bills gave up a lot of draft capital because they believe Diggs is a true elite WR1. In five seasons, Diggs has never reached 1,200 yards or 10 touchdowns. His best two years were his last two with Kirk Cousins, whose 2019 completion percentage (69%) was 11% better than Josh Allen‘s (58%). The demonstrative WR might not be able to tolerate Allen’s inconsistencies. He led the league in yards per catch, but that was a weakness of Allen’s game last season.

Fantasy Outlook: Pessimistic

TE Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

The highest paid Tight End in the league, Hooper could be expected to match the output of the upper tier (Kelce, Ertz and Kittle) but that’s unrealistic, he’s not nearly that dynamic. Furthermore, Baker Mayfield already has a lot of mouths to feed on the Browns offense (Beckham, Landry, Chubb, Hunt and Njoku) and has shown to be far less careful with the football. Hooper will have trouble matching his 2019 stats 75-787-6.

Fantasy Outlook: Pessimistic