Nylon Calculus Rookie Review: What did the Raptors see from Terence Davis?

Even if the NBA regular season is canceled, we’ve seen enough to start assessing the first seasons of notable rookies. What did the Toronto Raptors see from Terence Davis?

This regular season was basically one big bright for the Toronto Raptors. A slide was expected with the departure of Kawhi Leonard but Pascal Siakam took another step forward, Kyle Lowry was a rock and several young players stepped, incredibly successfully, into larger roles.

Rookie Terence Davis was as important as any Raptors’ bench player this season, averaging 7.7 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 17.0 minutes per game, shooting 39.6 percent on 3-pointers and 55.0 percent inside the arc. Davis, a senior from Ole Miss, went undrafted in large part because he refused overtures from teams on a two-way contract that would have had him in the G League for most of his rookie season.

He bet on himself and clearly won, but how far ahead of expectations was Davis’ rookie season and what does it mean for the future?

What did we expect?

Davis was a solid starter in his final three college seasons but really shone as a senior. He averaged 15.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc. His draft stock was, relatively low, because of questions about his upside. At 21, he was one of the older prospects in the class and the concern was that he might be good at a few things but not great at any.

Davis came in at No. 31 in The Step Back’s final big board and he probably would have been selected early in the second round if he’d been willing to take a two-way contract. However, after watching him at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament in April, Trevor Magnotti came away impressed with Davis’ athletic advantages and his potential to leverage them as a playmaker.

"He’s on a different level of athleticism from many of the players present, especially in terms of fluidity of movement, and it showed as he broke down players like James Palmer of Nebraska with ease in transition. In particular, he had one step back 3 that showed great mechanics, and he might be the one player at the tournament with true on-ball upside at the NBA level."

We know Davis won the bet on his ability to contribute as a key piece on a contending team but how did his rookie contributions actually match up with this pre-draft skill assessments?

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What did we get?

Davis checked the basic boxes as a role player — hitting 3s, finishing easy opportunities and providing solid and versatile defense on the wing.

ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus estimated his defensive impact to be close to average, which is a strong indicator for a rookie. He spent more than 30 percent of his defensive possessions on both point guards and shooting guards but, at 6-foot-4, was also effective switching onto bigger players and even spent just over 10 percent of his possessions matched up on 4s.

At the other end of the floor, he made 42.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s and finished 61.4  percent of his shots inside of 10 feet of the basket. Even if his growth trajectory is nothing more than moderate age-related development within this narrow role and its component skills, the Raptors have found value in an undrafted free agent.

But, as Magnotti indicated, Davis’ potential to chip in as a secondary creator raises his ceiling considerably. He averaged 4.7 assists per 100 possessions, just behind Coby White and ahead of rookies like R.J. Barrett, Tyler Herro and Jarrett Culver. Those assists weren’t just the product of moving the ball in the Raptors system, swinging the ball to open shooters. As you can see in the video below, Davis has the handle and body control to change speeds, moving defenders and creating space for passing angles. His vision is impressive and he has the passing ability to deliver the ball at creative angles.

Davis’ drive statistics are interesting because they hint at effectiveness in several areas but an outlier balance that could be tweaked dramatically. He recorded an assist on 13.1 percent of his drives, one of the highest rates of any rookie this season. But part of that was he passed the ball on 55.8 percent of his drives, one of the highest rates of any player in the league, rookie or otherwise. For reference, that pass rate is slightly higher than Ben Simmons.

Davis is a strong finisher, getting results with strength, length and touch. His pull-up game is very much a work in progress but being more aggressive looking for his own shot off the dribble could put even more pressure on the defense and create more opportunities for him to leverage his playmaking.

The Raptors have some big decisions to make in the 2020 offseason, whenever it actually occurs. Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and, most importantly, Fred VanVleet will all be free agents this summer. Even in the best-case scenario, Davis might be two or three years away from really growing into the role VanVleet is playing now and even that role rests on Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam for scaffolding. However, Davis’ playmaking upside could be a huge safety net for the Raptors if they decide it’s time to start turning the roster over for the future.