Nylon Calculus: Most surprising NBA scoring performances of the decade
We look at the most surprising NBA scoring performances of the past decade, offering a quick overview of the top 100 and a deep dive into the top 10.
To provide a temporary distraction and incentive to stay inside during the global pandemic, I thought it might be fun to look at the most surprisingly strong NBA scoring performances of the past decade. I offer a quick overview of the top 100 before delving deeper into the top 10.
The subject of interest is total points scored in one game — efficiency, assists, and rebounds are getting thrown out the window. For these points scored, 30 seemed like a good cutoff mark. While a 23-point performance from Ben Wallace in 2011 was impressive given his 2.85 points per game, it wouldn’t have quite the zest that a 30-point game would. The unexpectedness of a game was determined by the number of points scored in that game measured against that player’s scoring performances the rest of the season.
For example, the graph below shows every scoring performance of Kobe Bryant during the 2015-16 NBA season. The 60 points he scored in his final game had an ‘unexpectedness score’ (or Z-score) of 4.38, good enough for 29th on the list.
A quick overview of the top 100 performances
Full list of the top 100.
Of the 100 performances on the list:
- 78 players appear once
- 6 players appear twice: Brandon Jennings, C.J. Watson, Derrick Williams, Garrett Temple, Jodie Meeks, and Mario Chalmers
- 1 player appears three times: the ever-inconsistent Jeff Green
- 62 percent of these performances led to wins
- 59 percent occurred at home (those ones are always more fun)
- Chicago, Golden State, Phoenix, and Portland each had six players make the list
- Dallas, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Philadelphia were the only teams to give up six such performances
- They were more likely to happen later in the season:
