Bigger Big Ten East threat to Ohio State: Penn State or Michigan?

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on top in the Big Ten East, but who will be a bigger threat next year: The Penn State Nittany Lions or the Michigan Wolverines?

The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the three likeliest teams to reach the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State has won the Big Ten last three seasons, reaching the College Football Playoff for the third time in six years. Ryan Day has his program on the precipice of winning a national title in his second year. However, the Big Ten is starting to get really interesting at the top. Who poses the bigger threat to them in the division: The Penn State Nittany Lions or the Michigan Wolverines?

Here are the latest Big Ten conference title odds, via LVSuperBook.

Updated 2020 Big Ten title odds

Ohio State has the best odds of winning the Big Ten at 2/5. Penn State is tied for second with the favorite to come out of the Big Ten West in the Wisconsin Badgers at 7/1. Michigan is tied for the fourth-best odds to win the Big Ten with the Minnesota Golden Gophers at a solid 16/1. The Nebraska Cornhuskers have decent odds at 30/1, but then it drops off from there.

While you can certainly argue there’s parity in the two Big Ten divisions, the East is a bit more top-heavy than the West. With six teams in decent shape to get to Indianapolis, who is more likely to prevent Ohio State from representing the East at Lucas Oil Stadium in early December: Michigan or Penn State?

Looking at Michigan’s 2020 schedule, the Wolverines would be incredibly lucky if they went 11-1. Going 10-2 would be great too, but the Wolverines are more likely to go 9-3 or 8-4 than win double-digit regular-season games. Their schedule is at times unforgiving.

They start their season with a tough non-conference road game vs. the Pac-12 North contender Washington in Seattle. While the Wolverines do catch somewhat of a break by getting Wisconsin and Penn State at home, they come in back-to-back weeks to begin conference play. Road dates at Michigan State and Minnesota are challenging, as is playing Ohio State in The Horseshoe.

As for Penn State, the Nittany Lions also have a tough non-conference road game. They have to play ACC Coastal contender Virginia in Blacksburg. While that’s their toughest game in September, there are no free lunches for Penn State in October. This is where we find out if the Nittany Lions are good enough to get to Indianapolis or not.

Penn State’s October slate is as follows: At Michigan, bye, home vs. Iowa, home vs. Ohio State and at Indiana. The easiest game of the grouping is the road date at Bloomington vs. the Hoosiers. Not having to play at Kinnick or The Horseshoe gives the Nittany Lions an advantage. As for playing the Wolverines in The Big House, you could argue this is their toughest game of the year.

While going undefeated en route to Indianapolis doesn’t feel likely, Penn State should be able to go at worst 10-2 with this schedule. We should fully expect the Ohio State game at Beaver Stadium to be a whiteout at night. If the Buckeyes are going to drop a conference game, this would be likeliest the one. Penn State as a home dog in a whiteout. You have to like its chances.

So if Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten East, then it must be Penn State who will play for a College Football Playoff berth at Lucas Oil Stadium. Though they have to play at The Big House and may very well lose there, the Nittany Lions edge out the Wolverines for divisional supremacy thanks to easier games vs. the Big Ten West and being able to host Ohio State at Beaver Stadium.

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