With Chuba Hubbard, Tylan Wallace don’t sleep on Oklahoma State winning the Big 12

Oklahoma is the favorite, Texas is the big brand, but don’t sleep on Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys winning the Big 12 this year.

The latest Big 12 odds are out for the 2020 college football season and to the surprise of no one, the Oklahoma Sooners are the favorite. However, don’t discount their in-state rivals in Stillwater who boast the conference’s best offensive duo and a defense that returns its top performers.

Oklahoma State has the third-best Big 12 odds behind Oklahoma and the Texas Longhorns. The Cowboys have 7/1 odds while the Sooners have 6/5 odds and the Longhorns have 3/2 odds. It’s pretty much par for the course to have the two biggest brands and historically strong football programs as the betting favorites.

But let’s make the case for Oklahoma State.

The return of the nation’s leading rusher is a big boost to their hopes of contending in the Big 12. Chuba Hubbard ran for 2,094 yards (6.38 yards per carry) and tied for second with 21 rushing touchdowns. He was a workhorse for Mike Gundy’s team and is expected to be in the Heisman conversation this fall.

Hubbard likely would have been a second or third round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft but decided he had unfinished business in Stillwater and bypassed the draft for a chance at winning the Big 12.

It was a big surprise when Hubbard decided to wait one more year before entering the NFL. It was less of a surprise when Tylan Wallace returned after tearing his ACL but was still a mild shock to see him not test the NFL Draft waters. Wallace is on the shortlist of the best receivers in the nation after having 139 receptions for 2,394 yards and 20 touchdowns the last two seasons.

Can Hubbard-Wallace duo lead Oklahoma State to Big 12 crown?

The Hubbard-Wallace duo is the best running back-wide receiver duo in the Big 12. The development of sophomore quarterback Spencer Sanders is key to maximizing their talent. He had typical growing pains of most freshmen starting quarterbacks, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 8.4 yards/attempt and a 16:11 TD: INT ratio in 10 games. He also ran for 628 yards and had a pair of rushing touchdowns.

He’ll have to take a big step in his second year under center and play better in the biggest games and vs. the best opponents. He wasn’t good enough vs. Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor where he threw a combined six interceptions in those three losses.

Sanders showed flashes later in the year in wins vs. Iowa State, TCU and Kansas to suggest he’ll be a player ready to make the leap in 2020. He suffered a season-ending thumb injury that kept him out of the game vs. Oklahoma and the bowl game loss to Texas A&M, so he didn’t get to show what he could do in the biggest games of the year for the Pokes. You just know he’s itching at the opportunity to show what he can do this year, the last time he’ll have Hubbard and Wallace as his teammates.

This is the chance to send them out as winners.

The offense will put up a lot of points but it’s the defense that gives serious strength to the notion that Oklahoma State can win the Big 12.

We know defense is optional in the Big 12 where both teams scoring 35-plus points is the norm on Saturdays in the fall. But the Cowboys defense played well down the stretch. In the last six games of the year, Oklahoma State allowed 23 points per game, which won’t be mistaken for the 1985 Chicago Bears, but the averages were so much lower than the season averages for the opposing offenses.

If you can limit what a team does, you win. If a team averages 50 points per game but you hold them to 34 points per game, that’s a win for the defense. It’s important to keep that in context when talking about Big 12 defense. Points are always going to be scored at a high rate because of the offenses these schools run and because of the defensive personnel being recruited at these programs as well.

There’s a reason most of the NFL Draft picks, especially on defense are coming from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and the Pac-12, and not the Big 12, with a few notable exceptions.

The defense also is returning practically all its best players. The best of which is Amen Ogbongbemiga who led the team with 15.5 tackles for loss and five sacks while finishing second with 100 total tackles. Leading tackler Malcolm Rodriguez returns to hold down the middle linebacker spot next to Ogbongbemiga’s strong-side position.

What’s important is the secondary returns with Kolby Harvell-Peel looking to build on his team-best five interceptions last year. He’s rejoined by Trey Sterling, Rodarius Williams and Jarrick Bernard.

The defensive line will be important to get a rush on the talented quarterbacks in the league from Spencer Rattler to Sam Ehlinger to Brock Purdy. It’s a passing league after all.

Beyond the reasons in Stillwater that lead belief the Cowboys can win the Big 12 is Oklahoma has questions at quarterback for the first time in five years, Texas is a one-man show with Sam Ehlinger, Baylor lost everything from last year’s team and the rest of the league doesn’t have the roster, at least on paper, to compete.

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