Buy or sell Texas A&M as Alabama’s biggest threat in SEC West?

SEC odds are out and Alabama is the favorite in the West and it looks like Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M Aggies could be the Tide’s biggest threat.

Texas A&M was the preseason No. 12 team last year before going 8-5 and finishing the season unranked as Jimbo Fisher’s team was a shining example of a team that didn’t live up to preseason expectations. Will the 2020 season be any different?

The Aggies have 10/1 odds to win the SEC, which is fourth overall behind Alabama, Georgia and Florida, and makes them the biggest challenger to Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

This is setting up Texas A&M to be a preseason top-12 team again only to face a tough schedule and the weight of expectations that come with shouldering the reputation of a program that always falls short of the hype.

Can Texas A&M beat LSU and Auburn to finish 2nd in SEC West?

It’s the middle of May but let’s give Alabama the SEC West.

But it is a great time to question whether the Aggies are better than the reigning national champion LSU Tigers and the Auburn Tigers.

Even if you recognize LSU is not going to repeat last season’s 15-0 season that may be the best in college football history and the loss of Joe Burrow and 14 NFL Draft picks will be impossible to replace in one offseason. And even if you recognize that Texas A&M hosts LSU in the season finale, that’s still 43 points they need to make up from last year’s 50-7 defeat. LSU is closely behind with 12/1 odds so it’s not much of a difference from Texas A&M, but the Aggies get the benefit of the doubt because of Kellen Mond vs. the unknown of Myles Brennan at LSU.

Brennan is among the top 10 Heisman candidates and will have Ja’Marr Chase to throw to but Mond is a known talent. He has 44 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in two years as Fisher’s starter. He’ll have to make a big leap and he has enough talent to use his experience to his advantage. Jhamon Ausbon, Jalen Wydermyer and Ainias Smith are intriguing talents Mond will have to work with in the passing game.

Sophomore running back Isaiah Spiller could be one of the biggest breakout stars in the SEC. The former four-star recruit had 946 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns as a freshman and picked up 29 receptions out of the backfield. He could be in line for 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore.

Auburn sophomore quarterback Bo Nix was the SEC Freshman of the Year in an upset. He’s a good player but has a lot of raw ability needed to refine to improve as a passer so I think Texas A&M has the best quarterback situation among the two teams. Depending on what happens at Alabama, there’s a case for Texas A&M to have the best in the West and maybe in the entire SEC.

That alone is enough to be a contender as the second-best team in the SEC West. But I don’t think Texas A&M is a threat to Alabama this year. The talent gap is too vast and the Aggies have to play in Tuscaloosa this year. As good as Mond can be, he’s not Johnny Manziel.

The Texas A&M defense finished No. 36 in scoring defense last year, which isn’t terrible, but it was eighth in the SEC, which isn’t good enough to win the league unless you have Burrow as your quarterback. It’s why Texas A&M is going to lose a game or two that they should win. It’s why they’ll be a preseason darling and a team that finished 8-5 and unranked.

But it can also be the reason they go 10-3 and finish ahead of LSU and Auburn in the SEC West.

That would be the best season from Fisher and offer the most concrete evidence the Aggies are headed in the direction of being annual contenders and living up to the hype.

But I’m selling them as the biggest threat to Alabama in the West. That’s still LSU then Auburn and then Texas A&M. Until the Aggies do it, I can’t buy it.

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