What if Sam Hinkie was still the Philadelphia 76ers’ general manager?

2017-18

Yes, of course, I’m referring to the Markelle Fultz trade. Colangelo traded the No. 3 overall pick and the Kings’ unprotected 2019 first-round pick to the Boston Celtics for No. 1 overall, which they used to select Fultz. Regardless of scouting, there’s almost no way Hinkie would have traded up.

Assuming that the Celtics actually would have taken Jayson Tatum at No. 1 anyway, that leaves the Los Angeles Lakers with a choice between Fultz and Lonzo Ball. There’s no guarantee that the Lakers would have taken Fultz over Ball, so assuming it for this exercise wouldn’t be fair. Let’s just say the Lakers take Lonzo anyway. That leaves the Sixers with Markelle regardless, but with an extra asset still in their back pocket.

You might think there’s not much changing, since Philly is stuck with Fultz either way. But Hinkie’s frugality with assets goes a long way. As shown with the trades Colangelo made, asset preservation was not a priority. Every brick counts when building the foundation.

That philosophy continues with the rest of this draft. That pick that the Sixers got for Jerami Grant was sent to the Orlando Magic for the 25th overall pick, which they used on Anzejs Pasecniks.  In this world, the Sixers don’t even have that pick, and Hinkie probably wouldn’t have traded into the draft.

The Sixers also don’t have a motley of second-round picks in this draft, because many of the ones they acquired were from the Noel and Ilyasova trades that didn’t happen in this world. The only second that Philly still has in 2017 is the one they used on Jonah Bolden, who actually wasn’t a terrible pick given the context.

Once again, free agency is where Hinkie takes a much different approach. Colangelo was able to attract J.J. Redick, but it came at a cost: $23 million for one year, to be exact. Hinkie was never one to make big splashes, and one of his weaknesses as general manager was in relationships with free agents, so he probably looks elsewhere.

Maybe one of those upside signings from last summer paid off, and the Sixers have a reclamation project to re-sign. Kyle Korver’s three-year, $22 million deal (or a shorter deal for similar money) might have been more enticing than Redick’s. Could a bigger offer than two years, $21 million have enticed Bojan Bogdanovic to leave the Indiana Pacers? The point is, the Sixers probably look for shooting at a discount.

The $11 million signing of Amir Johnson is also not happening under Hinkie. Sure, the Sixers have to get to the salary floor, but they don’t have to be wasteful with cap space. Leaving space to possibly acquire a veteran midseason is smart for a young team that could be contending.

But for the Sixers to have a chance at contending, they need their best player on the court. The uncertainty of that happening hampered Embiid’s power in contract negotiations, leading to his contract being loaded with incentives. In real life, thankfully, he reached several minutes thresholds over the last few years to guarantee him more money.

It’s reasonable to think Hinkie would negotiate a similar “prove-it” contract with him. It was a lot of money for a guy who had only played 30 games, but if healthy, he would be worth every penny.

Another guy who got an extension that fall was Robert Covington. One of Hinkie’s favorite players, Covington fit the 3-and-D mold too well to be passed up. Hinkie wanted him in undrafted free agency in 2013, finally got him in 2014 and now had a chance to give him his next contract.

Considering the unique figures and structure of Covington’s deal, it was probably negotiated with significant help from the analytics staff. The deal amounted to four years and roughly $52 million, with the first year being the highest cap hit. That has turned into one of the best contracts in the league, and something Hinkie would have likely done too.

Grant is also technically eligible for an extension, but his fit with the rest of the team is probably still up in the air heading into 2017-18. He and Saric will once again share time at the 4, with Grant possibly getting some time at the 5.

A center that likely won’t be coming back is Okafor, who is basically a sunk cost after two seasons with the Sixers. Hinkie will have to bite the bullet on whatever he can fetch for the big man from Duke, even if that means cutting him. His presence on the roster is of no benefit to the Sixers by this point, which is evident by Colangelo trading him, Nik Stauskas and a second-rounder for … Trevor Booker.

Okafor and Stauskas get shipped off in a way that doesn’t cost the Sixers assets. Booker does not become a Sixer, and the backup 5 spot is Richaun Holmes’ to lose. Maybe another 5 comes to Philly, such as Aron Baynes, Amir Johnson (for less than $11 million) or another bargain-bin big.

The frontcourt is mostly set (Covington, Saric, Embiid), so now let’s address the backcourt. Between Korver, Bogdanovic and one of the bargain-bin wings, who should run the 2 with Simmons? Bogdanovic wins the battle, and suddenly the Sixers have the biggest starting five in the league.

The beginning of the season goes roughly the same as what actually happened in 2017-18. Simmons has some growing pains early, and the cheaper shooters aren’t as good as Redick. But the bench is stronger with Korver, Grant and a 5, meaning that the non-Embiid minutes aren’t as atrocious.

The Sixers start off treading water, and then the Simmons-shooters-Embiid model takes off. Simmons wins Rookie of the Year, and Embiid dominates with shooters around him. This version of the 2017-18 76ers is slightly worse than the real one, mainly because Bogdanovic and Korver aren’t as clean of fits as Redick. The buyout additions, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, also probably don’t join the fun, because their spots in the rotation are taken.

With similar regular-season performance comes a familiar postseason path as well. The Celtics roadblock is still there in round 2 unless Philly drops to the 4- or 5-seed. Simmons and Embiid probably struggle against a more experienced playoff team, Boston or whoever, and go into next season raring to make a splash.