How sure are we Alabama football goes over 10.5 wins in 2020?

Alabama football’s over/under of 10.5 wins for 2020 is quite the benchmark.

Alabama football has won at least 10 games the last 12 seasons under Nick Saban.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been the preeminent dynasty in college football for the last dozen years. Alabama has won the SEC six times, made the College Football Playoff five times and won five national championships during the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. Usually, the Crimson Tide maybe drop a game during their SEC slate, but that’s about it. But last year was different…

For the first time in the playoff era, Alabama didn’t reach the four-team tournament. A loss to the arch-rival Auburn Tigers at the Iron Bowl handed the Crimson Tide their second conference defeat of the SEC slate. Not only did Alabama not make the playoff, the Crimson Tide didn’t even get a New Year’s Six bowl invite, as they had to play the Michigan Wolverines in the VRBO Citrus Bowl.

FOX College Football tweeted out a graphic of Alabama’s 12-game schedule for 2020 with its projected over/under of 10.5 regular-season wins. Of course, we’d be dumb to count out Alabama entering any season, but maybe the tide has turned on the Tide? How sure are we Alabama wins 11 regular-season games in 2020? Let’s check out the graphic, do some investigating and find out.

While 10 wins feels likely, 11 wins seems uncertain for Alabama football.

Assuming we have a 12-game regular season in college football, Alabama has six games we cannot chalk up as a guaranteed victory at this time. Admittedly, three or four of them feel like a bit of a stretch to say the Crimson Tide could get upset in, but again, these are not certain victories for Alabama by any stretch of the imagination. Here is where the Crimson Tide could slip up.

Alabama should beat the USC Trojans on a neutral site and the Georgia State Panthers at home easily to get to 2-0. But in Week 3, Alabama faces arguably its toughest challenger all season long as a top-five program in the country comes to town in the Georgia Bulldogs. Even though Georgia hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2007, the last time it happened was in Tuscaloosa during that year.

At this time, Alabama should be able to beat Georgia at home for two reasons. One, the game is in Tuscaloosa. And two, quarterback Mac Jones is more familiar with the Alabama offense than former Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Jamie Newman is with Georgia’s. It’ll be a close game, but one we should see the Crimson Tide get to 3-0 and possibly get to No. 1 in the country.

After beating Saban’s alma mater Kent State Golden Flashes, the Crimson Tide could be on upset alert once they take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. Ole Miss has beaten Alabama twice in the last half-dozen years. Noted Saban disciple Lane Kiffin now leads the Ole Miss football program. We’ve seen crazier things happen, so an upset is definitely possible here.

With a road win at the rebuilding Arkansas Razorbacks and presumably another one at home vs. Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide could be 7-0 heading into the Third Saturday in October. Jeremy Pruitt’s Tennessee Volunteers are on the rise in his third season. Perhaps this is the year Tennessee gets to smoke those victory stogies and pay a fine?

After that comes Alabama’s toughest road game of the year at Death Valley vs. the defending national champion LSU Tigers. Even though Alabama should be the slightly better team in 2020 because LSU lost so much talent to the NFL, this feels like a scheduled loss for the Tide. LSU is a top-eight program in the country and teams like that don’t lose to rival programs at home.

Following cupcake week vs. the UT Martin Skyhawks, Alabama closes out its conference slate with a pair of SEC West rivals at home in the Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers. Texas A&M may very well be a top-10 this year. Though the Aggies have been a sit-down program forever, maybe things are changing under Jimbo Fisher. As for Auburn, well, it is the Iron Bowl after all.

So should you bet the over or side with the under on Alabama’s 10.5 win total? If you think the Crimson Tide are going undefeated, be my guest and pound the over. If you feel a couple of road upsets brewing in Oxford and Knoxville, take the under. But if you’re split and can’t pick between 10 or 11 wins for the Crimson Tide, ask yourself this one question: Do they beat Georgia or not?

If Alabama loses to Georgia at home, the then Crimson Tide are much more likely to lose on the road in Baton Rouge. Should Alabama be undefeated heading into the Third Saturday in October, you can feel very confident about the Crimson Tide’s chances of winning the SEC West at 11-1 (7-1), getting to Atlanta and playing for the right to go to the College Football Playoff.

Since I think Alabama beats my alma mater Georgia in Week 3, I’d side with the over at this time.

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