Fantasy Football: Searching for 2020’s top rookie wide receiver
By Ben Grivas
Rookie WRs are great fantasy assets once they break out.
When you’ve entered WR4 territory in drafts, it’s time to swing for the fences with upside. Catch yourself before you waste your 9th round pick on Emmanuel Sanders or Jamison Crowder. A shot on someone who could finish as either the WR20 or WR60 is better than someone who is sure to finish around WR40. Every year, a few rookie wide receivers end up breaking out and far exceeding their draft capital. These rookie wide receivers are often overlooked in redraft leagues, since “it’s so hard to predict which ones will break out.” This is true, but it’s easier to predict if you’re well informed of the options.
In this article, I’d like to narrow down the field of rookie wide receivers and pinpoint which has the best shot of breaking out. To start, I’m going to remove from consideration every wide receiver drafted after the third round. This is simple; the only example of a decent fantasy rookie wide receiver drafted after the third round in the past three years was Darius Slayton, who required many injuries in front of him on the depth chart. You can’t project injuries, so I’m not going to try.
Fantasy production occurs when talent meets opportunity. To narrow it down further, I’m eliminating any receiver whose projected as the fourth receiving option on the team or worse. It’s not impossible for these receivers to break out, but they should start the year on the waiver wire in most leagues. This includes Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden Jr., Van Jefferson, Chase Claypool, KJ Hamler and Tee Higgins.
There are now ten breakout candidates remaining. I’m going to quickly go over my least favorite four options, so this article doesn’t get too long.
10. Devin Duvernay (BAL) – He’s the probably the fourth option on the Ravens, the third at best on a low volume passing offense. The Ravens also threw to their WRs at the 2nd lowest rate in the league last year. There’s not much volume to steal in this offense.
9. Leviska Shenault Jr. (JAX) – You could argue that he should be projected as the 4th receiver, but he could be the no. 2 by the end of the year. It’s certainly possible for Shenault to break out, but it’ll be much more of an uphill battle than the receivers listed ahead of him, due to the competition for targets and the lack of touchdowns.
8. Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – The injury to Deebo Samuel could propel Aiyuk into a few good weeks, but the 49ers like to run the ball and Samuel and Kittle have cemented the top 2 receiving options when healthy.
7. Denzel Mims (NYJ) – I like Mims as a talent, and it’s certainly possible that he could beat out Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder as the top wideout on the Jets. However, he just suffered a hamstring injury, making it harder for him to make an impression on his team in this year’s limited training camp. In order to break out later in the season, he’ll have to take a lion’s share of the Jets’ targets, since they run the third fewest amount of plays in the NFL and only scored 31 touchdowns last year.
Now that we’ve gotten the smaller contenders out of the way, let’s move on to the top candidates, ordered by draft position. I’m going to analyze each candidate’s talent and opportunity to evaluate their odds of being the top rookie wideout of 2020.