NBA Playoffs 2020: Biggest questions for every first round series

No need for a long preamble. The first round of the NBA playoffs is finally here. Let’s break down the most interesting question that will define each series.

Lakers vs. Blazers

What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object?

The Lakers clinched the No. 1 seed in the West fairly early in the restart and so they didn’t exactly have a ton of urgency throughout these games, but it’s still at least a beat concerning that they ranked just 20th in offense during the seeding games. It would be somewhat less concerning if their relative offensive struggles weren’t something of a continuation of a trend from the regular season, where they ranked a disappointing 18th in half-court points per play, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Lucky for them, they get the Blazers, whose defense was absolutely sautéed to the tune of 120.4 points per 100 possessions during the restart games… 20th in the league. Portland did not have much in the way of defense prior to the hiatus, but adding Jusuf Nurkic back into the mix (he looks great on offense, not so much on defense) and pushing Carmelo Anthony to small forward has made things even worse. Is there anyone on this team that has a prayer of guarding LeBron James for even a few minutes? How about Anthony Davis? All the attention is going to be on the other end of the floor because of what Damian Lillard is doing right now, but this is where this series will be won.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Can Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis just out-score these guys?

The Mavs did not want this matchup and for good reason. The Clippers are kind of a nightmare for them. Big wings like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are just not something Dallas is equipped to handle on defense. Rick Carlisle can put Dorian Finney-Smith on one of the two (likely Kawhi) and at least trust that DFS will make him work, but there is no good option against the other guy. Tim Hardaway Jr. works hard on defense these days but he’s not strong enough for Kawhi and George is just about the worst possible matchup for him because of the way THJ struggles to navigate screens and keep his focus off the ball. The Mavs had the 21st-ranked defense during the restart, and we shouldn’t expect a sudden improvement.

So, it’s going to be up to Luka and KP and friends to ride the most efficient offense in NBA history if they’re going to steal a game or two in this series. The Clips have a ton of different options they can throw at Doncic — Leonard, George, Patrick Beverley, even Marcus Morris if they’re feeling weird. They also have the option to defend Porzingis with one of the wings, somewhat neutralizing the Doncic-Porzingis pick and roll by being able to switch it rather than send emergency help toward the paint. Dallas isn’t going to win this series, but it’ll be fascinating to watch how the young stars navigate the challenges such a deep, versatile opponent presents.

Nuggets vs. Jazz

Has Michael Porter Jr. taken the Nuggets up a level?

Are there times where it looks as though MPJ has no clue what’s happening on the floor? Does he still struggle to figure out what to do on defense? Do teammates have to physically point him in the right direction to get their sets moving on occasion? The answer to all of those questions is “yes,” but it almost doesn’t matter. Porter is so talented, so tall, so strong, that he overcomes some rather obvious drawbacks in his game right now. The man has an absolutely ridiculous individual scoring package, an instinct for putting himself in position to get easy buckets off dishes from Jokic, and he relentlessly attacks the glass for even more cheap scores. He is the type of true second star talent the Nuggets haven’t had next to Jokic. If everything comes together, that makes Denver a different type of team. The question is whether everything can come together, like, right now.

Rockets vs. Thunder

How do the Thunder attack Houston’s switch-everything defense?

The Rockets are unlike any other team in the league. Everybody that steps on the floor is 6-7 or shorter, and everybody can guard any player on the other team at any given time. They will switch every single screen, on or off the ball, and freely invite you to attack what you think is a mismatch and they think is just fine. They want you to post them up, and will let you do it literally all night long. And then they’ll dig down and swarm and jump passing lanes trying to force a turnover just about every time.

The best way to attack them is probably the way the Rockets themselves attack switches: force the specific switch that you want and then isolate. But who’s going to do the isolating? Chris Paul doesn’t have a true big man to pick on here so he won’t be able to go by defenders as freely as he usually does in those situations; when he gets switched, it’s Robert Covington or P.J. Tucker. Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ready to be the guy making the Rockets pay for switching into a poor matchup? Is Dennis Schroder? This is going to have to be a big series for Danilo Gallinari. Gallo got OKC 1.093 points per possession when he was the screener in a switched pick and roll this season, per Second Spectrum. Can he boost that into the 1.2 to 1.3 range? The Thunder are going to need it.

Bucks vs. Magic

How many games will this series last?

All due respect to Steve Clifford and Co., but this series was going to be a walk even if the Magic had Jonathan Isaac. It is extraordinarily unlikely that it’ll be competitive now.

Raptors vs. Nets

How much zone defense will we see in this series?

The Nets played zone defense on a greater percentage of their defensive possessions than 28 of the other 29 teams in the league this season, with only the Heat exceeding their 6.5 percent rate. The team right behind them? The Raptors, at 5.5 percent.

Interestingly, Toronto struggled to score against opposing zones this year, registering a putrid 94.7 offensive rating, per Second Spectrum. A ton of that appears to be noise, though, as the Raptors under-performed their expected effective field goal percentage by 10.5 percentage points against zone defenses — by far the highest mark in the league. (The next closest team was the Thunder at 6.7 percentage points.) Toronto had the sixth-highest expected eFG% against zone, but the worst actual eFG%. That doesn’t seem very likely to continue. On the other hand, the Nets rarely saw zone from opposing defenses this season, facing it on only 93 total possessions. How will they attack a defense they didn’t really get much of a chance against all year?

Celtics vs. 76ers

Who guards Jayson Tatum with Ben Simmons out?

When the Celtics and Sixers played this season, Jayson Tatum was defended by Ben Simmons on 155 possessions, per Second Spectrum tracking data. Do you want to guess who Tatum’s next most-frequent defender was, and how many possessions on which they defended him? Anyone? Bueller? If you guessed James Ennis, congratulations. Ennis — who is now on the Magic — defended Tatum on a grand total of 20 trips.

Simmons did an excellent job bothering Tatum, holding him to a pathetic 42.7 expected effective field goal percentage. Without him there to handle the matchup, what do the 76ers do? Josh Richardson? That might be their best option with the starts, but it also doesn’t seem like a very good one. Tobias Harris is, uh, not up for that. Is Matisse Thybulle ready to play 38 minutes in a playoff series? Even if he is ready for that on defense, does having him out there with Joel Embiid and (likely) Al Horford undermine their offense? This seems to be a question that Philly is simply not equipped to answer.

Heat vs. Pacers

Can the Pacers overcome the likely math disadvantage?

All anybody’s going to care about here is Jimmy Butler vs. T.J. Warren. That’s interesting from a personality standpoint but it likely will not be determinative. Here’s what will: The Pacers are the second-most mid-range-heavy team in the league, while only a few teams take more threes than the Heat, and nobody shoots them at a higher clip. How do the Pacers overcome that difference in shot quality?

Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, and Aaron Holiday are going to have to really work for the best possible look on every single possession because the Pacers can’t afford to trade 45-ish percent on 2s for 35ish percent on 3s. They need to be making half their 2s or more. Miami wasn’t quite as good defensively as you’d expect given the reputation of some of their defenders, so maybe those guys can get it done. If not, the math is just too much to overcome.