Which version of Robbie Ray are the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring?

The Blue Jays acquire LHP Robbie Ray from Arizona for Travis Bergen but must find a way to improve his control

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired left-handed starting pitcher Robbie Ray from the Arizona Diamondbacks before Monday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline. But exactly which version of Ray they’re getting, not even they know for sure.

One word can accurately describe Ray’s 2020 season so far: erratic. Ray has walked 17 batters in his last 14 innings. He’s last in the Majors with nine walks per nine innings; the next closest pitcher is the Tigers’ Spencer Turnbull at 5.3. Only one pitcher, Tommy Byrne in 1951, has ever had such poor control over a season in which they pitched at least 100 innings. He also leads the Majors with six wild pitches.

But Ray hasn’t always been this way, and that’s the mystery the Blue Jays will now try to solve. Between 2017-18, Ray went 21-7 for the Diamondbacks with a 3.34 ERA. He’s one of the best swing-and-miss style pitchers in the league, striking out at least 12 batters per nine innings each of the last four seasons. He has 23 double-digit strikeout games since 2016, ninth-most over that span.

How can the Blue Jays fix Robbie Ray?

Ray has shown he can still flash that dominance, even in what has so far been a disastrous season for the former All-Star. On Aug. 16, he held the San Diego Padres lineup hitless for five innings but was still credited with an earned run after walking six batters. He gave up just two hits in his last start, on Aug. 26 against Colorado, but again walked six. Just 55 percent of Ray’s pitches this season have been strikes. He’s walked more than 20 percent of the batters he’s faced.

The problem stems from a change in pitching mechanics. Ray started to shorten his windup this season, keeping his arm tucked into his side before releasing the pitch. But in his last few starts, he’s gone back to what he used to do, lower his arm and pitch from a more pronounced windup. The results haven’t been immediately apparent, but at least it signals he could be making a step in the right direction. He has managed to lower his ERA from 10.59 in his first four starts to 4.50 over his last three.

The Blue Jays have the next month to figure him out. Ray is a free agent after the season and will likely stay in Toronto just for the 2020 playoff push. The Blue Jays need the pitching depth he provides: Matt Shoemaker and Nate Pearson are both on the IL, while Trent Thornton has already been ruled out for the rest of the season.

Despite the injuries, the Blue Jays find themselves right in the playoff picture in the American League. Winners of 11 of their last 14 games, the Blue Jays leads the Majors in wins over the last two weeks. They currently sit just one game behind the New York Yankees for second place in the AL East, with 10 games still to play against their division rivals.

Ray could compliment the Blue Jays rotation behind Hyun-Jin Ryu and another new addition, Taijuan Walker. But he must improve his control. He’s yet to make it past the fifth inning in any of his seven starts this season but has thrown at least 90 pitches in all but one of those starts. He still has the fastball and electric slider that made him a 15-game winner just three seasons ago; opponents are batting just .195 off his slider with 21 strikeouts in 41 at-bats.

If the Blue Jays get that version of Ray, the trade could be a franchise-changer. If he’s the one who can’t find the strike zone, though, he’ll become just another arm that has to be bailed out by the bullpen.