College Football Week 5 AP Top 25: LSU, Oklahoma fall; welcome back Ohio State

The new AP Top 25 has LSU and Oklahoma bottoming out while Ohio State is back in the mix with Clemson and Alabama atop the college football rankings.

This week, the AP Top 25 reintroduced members of the Big Ten, a move that is a perfect illustration of what the AP Top 25 Poll is. After Saturday, there are 29 undefeated teams, a whole four more than the 25 necessary to fill out a Top 25 poll. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t one-loss teams that should be in the Top 25.

What’s weird about this poll, is that we have tape on so many teams, yet it’s partly a preseason poll with the Big Ten and Pac 12 ranked but still a month from playing. How will voters treat these teams in the interim as we see the BYU’s continue to put up beastly stats? As much as ability sets the ceiling for Top 25 teams, we know that losses are what matter. The AP Top 25 over the next month will be a demonstration of exactly what it is we’re polling.

It doesn’t matter that Texas (they’re still back!) couldn’t manage to put away a Texas Tech team that struggled to beat Houston Baptist. The same Houston Baptist upon which North Texas scored at will. They have two W’s and zero L’s. Ergo, they’re better than Miami (who is even more back!) because they we had higher expectations of the Longhorns coming in. For the next month, Ohio State and Penn State will be all expectation and no performance — good or bad. Meanwhile, Miami will have played Clemson, Texas will have played Oklahoma.

The point is this: we, the consumers and subjective evaluators of College Football teams, don’t adjust our expectations nearly enough for bad performances that result in wins. It saved Clemson in 2016, when NC State missed a field goal to go on to lose in overtime. It spared Texas this week. It doesn’t matter than BYU looks better than Texas. Or is even slightly better in the advanced metric offensive predicted points added (which is admittedly rather messy at the moment.) Preseason expectations dominate. We will get to see that point emphasized over the next four weeks.

AP Top 25 Poll

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Texas
10. Penn State
11. UCF
12. North Carolina
13. Texas A&M
14. Oregon
15. Cincinatti
16. Mississippi State
17. Oklahoma State
18. Oklahoma
19. Wisconsin
20. LSU
21. Tennessee
22. BYU
23. Michigan
24. Pitt
25. Memphis

AP Top 25 fallers

No. 18 Oklahoma (previously No. 3)

Yikes. Oklahoma blew a 14 point fourth quarter lead against a team that lost to middle-of-the-road Sun Belt team Arkansas State. Their win probability at the start of the fourth quarter was 90 percent! But the Sooners failed to score in the final frame and the rest is history. Three interceptions and fumble is exactly how you lose a game despite outgaining your opponent by more than 100 yards. The (Buster) Sooners had 28 first downs to Kansas State’s 10. Again, yikes.

It’s a weird season, so maybe Oklahoma can bounce back and sneak into the playoffs, but it doesn’t look likely. Crushed too are Spencer Rattler’s hopes at this year’s Heisman Trophy. Right now the Big 12 looks like a bucket of yuck. Like, worse than Brock Purdy’s interception. Besides Texas, of course, since they are back.

If Oklahoma get’s back on track, and they probably will, they will win the conference and need help from the Pac 12 and Big Ten to sneak into the Playoff.

No. 20 LSU (previously No. 6)

Let’s be really honest here. Anyone who thought Myles Brennan was going to be Joe Burrow, was dreaming. That applies especially to whoever threw LSU a first place vote in last week’s poll. No team can go from Joe Burrow to not Joe Burrow (Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields excepted) and keep producing the way they did last year. Add in that Joe Brady is gone as well, and it’s not fair to expect the Tiger offense to stack up to its 2019 performance.

What has to be disappointing is the defensive performance. Ed Orgeron’s squad gave up 623 yards passing to K.J. Costello, formerly of Stanford fame. The Tigers lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL last year, but that still doesn’t excuse getting sonned by Grampa Leach. LSU has more talent than the Bulldogs. They lost anyway.

For what it’s worth, they won the Twitter Clapback of the Day Award:

Louisiana (previously No. 19)

We all knew this was coming. Even if our beloved Ragin’ Cajuns win out, they aren’t candidates for the Playoff. Nor should they be if we’re being honest. But they are exciting, and playing outstanding defense. Despite winning on Saturday on the leg of a kicker who is under 50 percent this season, the entry of the Big Ten bumps Louisiana down. It’s likely that they won’t see a ranking as high as 19 again all season.

The Ragin’ Cajuns made the best of their time in the Top 20, though. After upsetting the inexplicable Iowa State Cyclones, they won a nail biter against Georgia State in overtime, and withstood Georgia Southern in upset mode. Goodnight sweet princes. Your Fun Belt will live on in our hearts.

AP Top 25 Risers

No. 16 Mississippi State (previously unranked)

The Mike Leach x SEC collab is going to be lit. The Bulldogs dominated LSU in Baton Rouge yesterday. That’s despite an inefficient quarterback who threw two interceptions and fumbled twice. Imagine if Mississippi State had receivers who could get separation!

Mike Leach and company won’t win the SEC this year, but within the next three seasons, his team is going to make its peers sweat. The win in LSU is a preview of things to come. The SEC will see the same plays they saw on Saturday run from every formation imaginable. If the Bulldogs can do what they did on Saturday with K.J. Costello, they’ll be a nightmare once Leach’s recruits come in.

No. 6 Ohio State (previously excluded from rankings, which is technically unranked but not really unranked because 2020 is a funhouse mirror on a tilt-a-whirl)

Ohio State is probably the best team in the country, but without having played a game yet, it’s understandable that they find themselves sitting behind the Power Five elite that have played. The last time we saw the Buckeyes, they lost a game they probably would have won if not for a few bad breaks. Still, Fields is coming off an incredible season where he only threw one interception during the regular season. The defense is primed. The Buckeyes are worthy of this spot.

They have a month of down time to think about all the havoc they will wreak in the Big Ten that lacks any quarterback talent to compete on their level. Meanwhile, we get to Day-dream (get it?!) about what this offense is going to look like with a full year of starting under Justin Fields’ belt. The Buckeyes are going to chew up and spit out their schedule this year. October 24 can’t come soon enough.

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