NBA Finals 2020: Can the Heat carry their Game 3 formula into Game 4?

The Heat’s win in Game 3 wasn’t just about Jimmy Butler, they finally found some formulas that worked. Can they use them it to even the NBA Finals?

The Lakers’ offense rests upon the promise of having the best player — if not the two best players — on the floor in a given game. For the first two games of the NBA Finals, that theory came to magnificent fruition; LeBron James and Anthony Davis dominated an overmatched Heat defense as the Heat battled injuries and struggled to find a reliable counter on the other end of the floor.

But on Sunday night, when the game’s best player clearly belonged to Miami, it was the Lakers who found themselves unable to punch back. In one of the most masterful individual efforts in recent Finals history, Jimmy Butler outplayed both James and Davis, who couldn’t solve a more single-minded Heat defense without help from their supporting cast. Miami disrupted their rhythms with group efforts to wall off the rim, frequent double-teams in the post and a smarter approach in the pick-and-roll.

What worked so well for the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

In the first game of the series — the only one for which Miami had a full complement of players — the Lakers carved out significant advantages at the rim and the foul line, relentlessly attacking an undersized frontcourt with a banged-up rim protector. Miami flipped those disparities in its favor in Game 2, scoring over 1.25 points per possession, but still had no way of alleviating the pressure L.A.’s stars put on the rim. James continued to press on weak points to set up teammates as the Lakers took nearly half their shots from beyond the arc en route to a 135 offensive rating:

L.A. took the same share of shots from deep in Game 3, but the quality of those looks suffered as the Heat were increasingly successful keeping James and Davis away from the hoop. Davis faced double-teams or a clogged lane on most of his catches, and doesn’t yet read the game well enough to leverage that extra attention in his favor:

Rather than allowing James to target weaker defenders, attack off the dribble, and force help at the rim, the Heat abandoned their zone defense and hedged ball screens in the second half of Game 3 in order to keep stronger defenders in front of James and prevent the league’s best player from getting downhill and breaking Miami’s defense open:

Without either star taking over the game in the halfcourt, the Lakers managed just a 105 offensive rating for the game. Eight first-quarter turnovers from James and Davis kept the Laker offense from getting off the ground, and L.A. eventually gave the ball away on a fifth of its possessions. Infrequent lapses in execution and brilliant solo attacks left James with the occasional clean lane to the basket (LeBron still finished with 25 points, 10 boards, and eight assists on efficient shooting), yet the fact that he and Davis combined for just 25 shots — compared to 38 and 45 in Games 1 and 2, respectively — suggests Miami may have found a reliable way to mitigate their dominance at the rim.

Butler, meanwhile, got what he wanted because the Lakers couldn’t afford to leave Miami’s shooters. He repeatedly found the advantage he wanted — often by forcing weaker defenders to switch onto him — and simply attacked the space those shooters afforded him. Miami’s offense flowed almost entirely through its star, who shouldered a 39 percent usage and 48 percent assist rate in Game 3 while converting 16 of his 20 shots from the field. Seventeen of those 20 attempts came within 14 feet of the rim — plus another seven trips to the foul line — which evinces both Butler’s own aggression and the Heat’s effective floor spacing. When L.A. helped on drives, Miami feasted on drive-and-kick jumpers:

Butler outdid James and Davis’ combined box score production, and his actual impact on the game may have been just as outsized. Absent Goran Dragić and Bam Adebayo, who would normally help the Heat pivot from one action to the next, Butler was charged with both initiating offense with downhill penetration and facilitating it along the perimeter. Depending on the situation, you could find Butler playing the role of pass-first point guard, playmaking big man, slashing wing, and unguardable isolation scorer:

That formula may not be replicable for the rest of the series, even if it did provide one stirring win. Butler played nearly 45 minutes in Game 3 as a central offensive player and primary defender against James; at some point, Miami will need more talent and viable alternatives to keep pace with a star-powered opponent. Dragić and Adebayo’s statuses for Game 4 remain unclear, and James and Davis won’t stay quiet for long. (James began to pierce Miami’s defense late by splitting double teams and attacking the hedging man’s outside hip — another wrinkle the Heat must guard against in Game 4.) Still, the Lakers’ path to closing out the series rests upon Davis or James being the best player on the floor in every game. After Game 3 that may no longer be something they can take for granted.