North Dakota State QB Trey Lance leaves questions unanswered in lone 2020 game

North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance failed to impress in his lone game of 2020. The athletic playmaker remains a difficult projection as the 2021 NFL draft looms.

The 2021 NFL draft became more of a focus much earlier than anyone had anticipated once the college football season was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Limited schedules and uncertainty about who’s actually playing in the fall led to a scramble to evaluate players who either won’t play in 2020 or will only play sparingly.

The biggest prospect to be directly impacted by the reduction of games is North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. The powerhouse program produced Carson Wentz for the 2016 NFL draft, and are now again looking to claim another top-five pick with Lance. The athletic passer has already gained many fans across the media and scouting community.

It’s easy to see why because he already wins the paper-test with his measurables and first-year production. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder is a fantastic runner, totaling 1,325 yards in 19 games with the Bison. His scrambling ability allowed him to dominate lesser competition across his one-plus year as a starter.

Trey Lance is the biggest wild card in the 2021 NFL Draft

With the NFL welcoming more running quarterbacks over traditional pocket statues, Lance has as much value as ever for quarterback-needy teams. He’s a phenomenal runner in the open field and can extend drives with ease. There’s no concern over his ability to impact a game with his legs.

But his passing ability is what’ll determine his NFL success. His highlight film is filled with impressive displays of arm strength and the occasional deep ball. There’s no question that his big-play upside and overall dynamic ability is intriguing.

His numbers also show what many would think is a highly advanced decision-maker based on the fact he just logged his first career interception on 318 throws in his only game of 2020. The redshirt sophomore is a smart passer, but his raw stats are misleading as far as his development. His opening game against Central Arkansas was statistically mediocre (15-of-30 passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT) but the film showed the same issues with consistency from 2019.

This isn’t the end of the world, of course. I charted all of Lance’s career passes and compared his catchable ball rate to 75 other quarterbacks to see how he stacked up. Lance will have time to develop and we’ve seen worse passers (Josh Allen) blossom with the right support and aptitude to get better.

Lance rated as an above-average passer from 0-10 yards (80 percent accurate), below-average on 11-19 yard throws (54 percent) and slightly below average deep (44 percent). Overall his raw accuracy was in the same range as Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson.

One caveat would be the level of competition was dramatically lower, the scheme much more effective than what those passers had, and the weight of the offense carried by each individual. Lance was also close to Wentz’s accuracy numbers at NDSU, and we’ve seen how inconsistent the latter has been throughout his career.

There are some excellent throws from Lance that I’ve highlighted to this point. Each shows a smooth passing motion and feathery-delivery into the catch radius. At his best, Lance has the tools to be a similar weapon as Kyler Murray.

Like with Murray, though, the plays in between the pretty passes need cleaning up. Lance’s mechanics aren’t reliable and it repeatedly cost him against Central Arkansas. He missed three-of-eight short attempts, four-of-nine intermediate attempts and all three deep balls.

The first throw of his season had a good example of his robotic pocket management and penchant for airing throws high and outside. Notice how he whips from the strong-side of the play to the weak-side, and arm flails with an elongated motion. The throw is uncatchable for the outstretched receiver.

His arm motion and large step with his lead leg often cost him more precise throws. He can certainly whip a ball into a tight spot when his process is clean, but he also loses out on bigger plays because his placement is one of the least reliable parts of his skill set. He’s lost numerous big plays and touchdowns over 18 games due to his passing inefficiencies.

He’s made up for some of the misses with his creative running and extending his passing windows with his legs. The potential for him to become more reliable and consistent each down is there, but in a class with extremely talented and polished passers like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, it’s easier to see that Lance needs significant work and is a bigger risk to draft.

It’s scary to draft one-year starters at the position. Ask the Cleveland Browns about DeShone Kizer, the Chicago Bears about Mitchell Trubisky, and the Washington Football Team about Dwayne Haskins (I’m not ruling Haskins out yet, but he’s certainly struggled). His exposure to coverages and situational football is limited and he needs reps to improve.

He was below-average with accuracy under pressure (52 percent) and the fifth-worst passer on conversion downs that I’ve charted (56 percent). There’s not a modern-age quarterback to find success with as poor as conversion down numbers as that.

It’ll help Lance to go to a patient team that can either sit him for most of 2021 or the entire season and builds a roster for his skill set. He can become a dangerous starter with the right support, but without it, his running will become the only effective part of his game. He’s not overly close as a pocket passer right now and there’s not the fundamental base to guarantee he’ll become one with certainty.

The big plays will help and some of the biggest draft analysts in the country love Lance’s raw tools. I don’t blame them, but also heed warnings about the reality of his numbers and role within an offense that won’t skip a beat when he leaves next year. Ideally, we would’ve seen him at a higher-profile and pressure program like Georgia, Michigan or Oregon before he jumped to the NFL but Covid-19 and life get in the way of these dream situations from happening.

In the meantime, we have a fun highlight reel and a bunch of single plays littered with frustrating errors to project Lance.

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