Predicting when each undefeated NFL team will lose its first game

When will each unbeaten NFL team suffer a loss for the first time?

We are now four weeks into the NFL season and just six teams remain undefeated.

The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are all still hoping to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins as pro football’s only undefeated teams.

History says that won’t happen, however, so when will each of these teams experience the agony of defeat? Let’s take a look at each squad and project when that first loss will come, starting with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills: Week 5 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills have looked the part of a dominant team in the AFC but they haven’t really been able to close out games, winning their last three games by seven points or less and nearly collapsing in two of them. The schedule offers a meaty Thursday night game against the Chiefs in Week 6 but they could get caught looking ahead and fall to the Titans in Nashville on Sunday.

Tennessee looks poised to get back to work on Wednesday after a COVID outbreak shifted the team’s bye week up to Week 4. The coaching staff has no doubt had extra time to prepare for the Bills and can easily score the upset here to knock the Bills from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 at Buffalo Bills

Cam Newton’s positive COVID test forced the Chiefs’ game against New England to move from Sunday to Monday, leading to a situation where Kansas City is playing three times in 10 days. Playing that many football games in a short period of time will leave the Chiefs a bit tired by the time they get to Buffalo, which has a good defense and a solid running game to take advantage of Kansas City’s weakness stopping the run.

The top team in FanSided’s power rankings is certainly a big threat to repeat as champions but New England exposed a way to slow down the Chiefs by keeping Patrick Mahomes glued to the sidelined. Add in a team capable of doing it with some travel on a short week for a team playing its third game in a short span of time will equal the first loss of the year for Kansas City.

Tennessee Titans: Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This game should have been played last week and likely would have resulted in a win by the Steelers. If Tennessee beats Buffalo as we laid out they should easily handle the Texans in Week 6 to get to 5-0 ahead of a matchup with a solid Pittsburgh group that should be able to match up well with Tennessee.

The Steelers can take advantage of Tennessee’s suspect run defense, which surrenders 166 yards a game, by pounding the football with James Conner. The Titans could also have trouble establishing their ground game against Pittsburgh’s elite front seven, which held opponents to 54 yards per game over the first three weeks of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 at Baltimore Ravens

The Week 4 bye did no favor for the Steelers, who come out of their break with four tough games in a row. Home games against Philadelphia and Cleveland are winnable while we’re projecting they knock off the Titans, but Week 8’s trip to Baltimore could be a problem.

The Ravens will be on bye in Week 7 so they will be well-rested and have two weeks to prepare for Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson is also a quarterback capable of using his legs to extend plays and frustrate the Steelers’ front so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them knock off their bitter rivals.

Green Bay Packers: Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers

The only team guaranteed to enter Week 6 undefeated is Green Bay, which is 4-0 and has its bye this week. Aaron Rodgers continues to amaze us with his outstanding play and the return of Davante Adams should help the Packers get past the Buccaneers in Tampa after the bye.

The Packers should take care of business against Houston and Minnesota at home before hitting the road in Week 9 for an NFC Championship Game rematch against the 49ers. That game will be played on a Thursday, meaning Green Bay has to travel two time zones on a short week, while San Francisco should be much healthier by that point as well.

The 49ers also beat up the Packers convincingly in both of their matchups last season so they should retain a key mental edge that will make all the difference in that game.

Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams

The Seahawks look like the most complete team in the loaded NFC West but their upcoming schedule is loaded with potential pitfalls. Week 5 offers a winnable home game against Minnesota ahead of the bye before they come out of it with games against Arizona, San Francisco, Buffalo and Los Angeles.

All but the 49ers game are on the road, so that stretch will see Seattle’s first loss in it. Arizona won’t sneak up on Seattle after their hot start while the Seahawks should beat San Francisco at home. A trip to Buffalo is perilous but Seattle has won 10 straight games at 10:00 a.m. body time, so that concern is certainly a bit understated. This stretch will beat them up, however, leading to a loss against a very capable Rams’ squad at SoFi Stadium in Week 10.