BYU’s Zach Wilson facing obstacles familiar and unprecedented in Heisman Trophy race

BYU football star quarterback Zach Wilson is off to a tremendous start but can he mount a serious challenge to Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and the top Heisman Trophy contenders?

Zach Wilson has been spectacular for No. 15 BYU.

The Cougars quarterback ranks second in the nation with a 222.1 efficiency rating, trailing only Alabama’s Mac Jones, is tied for third in points responsible for (66) and in last weekend’s rout of Louisiana Tech became one of only 10 passers this century with a completion percentage of 92.3 or higher with a minimum of 24 attempts.

Doing this all a that has steamrolled its opponents by a combined score of 148-24, the junior has thrown his name into the Heisman Trophy mix. But obstacles — those familiar, unprecedented and all completely out of Wilson’s control — stand in the BYU star’s way when it comes to building his campaign.

Zack Wilson looks to join Ty Detmer as Heisman winners from BYU

Since 1990, the last time a player from outside of the sport’s power structure won the award — which was, coincidentally, another Cougars quarterback in Ty Detmer — those schools outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and Notre Dame have had nine finalists, with none of them finishing better in the voting than San Diego State’s Marshall Faulk, who was second in 1992.

Five of those finalists came in the BCS era, topped by the third-places of Hawaii’s Colt Brennan (2007) and Northern Illinois’ Jordan Lynch (2013), and in the six years of the College Football Playoff, these players have slid further into the shadows without a single invitation going to a non-Power 5 player.

The best finishes since the new postseason have come from Navy’s Keenan Reynolds (fifth in 2015) and San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny (fifth 2017), while most recently, UCF’s McKenzie Milton was sixth in 2018.

That’s the history that Wilson and every player who doesn’t suit up for a major program deals with when it comes to the Heisman, which of late, couldn’t seem more out of reach.

But maybe the most unfortunate part of it all for the BYU passer as the past comes into play amid his impressive start, is that he had a schedule that could have erased any doubts and set himself up for an entirely different kind of trophy case.

Utah. Michigan State. Arizona State. Minnesota. Missouri. Stanford.

Six Power 5 opponents, three of which finished in the Top 25 last season and two – Utah and Minnesota – that made the preseason Associated Press poll were part of the independent Cougars’ initial schedule that was announced in January. It was a slate that Athlon ranked as the fifth toughest in the nation.

But then COVID-19 changed all of that, forcing the major conferences to move their scheduling in-ward and BYU was sent into scramble mode. Athletic director Tom Holmoe had conversations with other leagues – including the Big 12 — about joining them for a season, a la Notre Dame with the ACC, but those talks fell apart and the Cougars were left piecing together a 10-game slate.

With the Sept. 22 game with No. 22 Army postponed due to a number of positive tests within the Cougars program, there’s not a currently ranked opponent remaining. BYU was able to add dates with Houston (Oct. 16) and Boise State (Nov. 7) within the last week, and an open date on Nov. 28 for both the Cougars and Black Knights could provide an opportunity to make up that game, but as of this writing, there’s been no announcement in that department.

That all leaves BYU with a schedule that’s ranked 65th based on the future opponents’ .417 winning percentage (per NCAA.org’s stats) and doesn’t include a single team that received a vote in the latest AP Top 25.

ESPN’s Power Index gives BYU a 32.2 percent chance of going unbeaten, second to only Ohio State’s 38.5. Wilson and Co. will be heavy favorites to navigate that schedule and that may be enough to get them into a New Year’s Six Game.

But in terms of a Heisman resume? It figures to be lacking.

Without the benefit of a Power 5 win or a victory over a single ranked opponent on the schedule, how is Wilson going to gain traction in a race with the likes of Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Florida’s Kyle Trask, Miami’s D’Eriq King, Alabama’s Jones and the Buckeyes’ Justin Fields, when he finally takes the field Oct. 24? With 10 of the ACC’s 11 games — like the Big 12 — within its confines and the Big Ten and SEC (along with the Pac-12) playing only conferences games, the other contenders’ platforms are going to be built entirely on the kind of games that BYU’s schedule is missing.

In 2004 Utah’s Alex Smith earned victories over the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-10 in making the ceremony, Boise State’s Kellen Moore (2010) beat three ranked teams, including ones out of the ACC and Pac-10 and in 2013, Lynch and Northern Illinois had wins over a pair of Big Ten opponents.

Now, to be fair, when Brennan made it to New York in 2007 in a statistical season for the ages that saw him set 11 NCAA records, he wasn’t exactly facing a gauntlet of a schedule. Hawaii faced two FCS squads and didn’t see a major-conference opponent, though it did include one ranked team (No. 17 Boise State) as Brennan paved the way for an undefeated season and a spot opposite Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Big wins against big opponents mattered then, a key ingredient to getting to New York in the BCS era. But since the move to the CFP, even those haven’t been enough to mount a serious campaign.

In 2017, Milton and UCF went undefeated, beat a Big Ten team (Maryland) and took down two Top-25 programs (No. 22 South Florida and No. 16 Memphis) ahead of the vote to stand at 12-0 and earn a spot against Auburn in the Peach Bowl. He still didn’t get an invite as Milton finished eighth in the voting, 737 points behind the third and last finalist that year.

Blame voters as the attention has shifted toward the playoff, making life that much more difficult for those teams on the outside looking in. But it’s a shift that started with the BCS and has only intensified with the race for the Final Four and only strengthens the notion that the Heisman is a byproduct of where the game’s spotlight is directed.

BYU is likely going to fight to stay in that spotlight as a long shot to make the playoffs — 13th in the latest odds at +10000 — and while its schedule could get some much-needed pop if it can reschedule Army, Wilson’s team’s place in the national conversation directly affects the ceiling of the campaign.

It’s an unquestionable up-hill battle, maybe more so than any non-Power 5 contenders that has become before, because with Wilson there’s the added level of a situation he has no control over.

The most recent Heisman odds have Wilson tied for sixth at +2000, putting him equal to Mississippi State’s KJ Costello and SMU’s Shane Buechele, a player coming off a setback and another fringe contender. But if he’d put up these kinds of numbers – 949 yards passing and six touchdowns to one interception – through three games against the Cougars’ originally-scheduled first three opponents (Utah, Michigan State and Arizona State), we’d likely be talking about a different level of buzz than it coming against Navy, Troy and Louisiana Tech.

Wilson was set up to make a Heisman case we haven’t had for a player from outside the Power 5 in the playoff era.

He and BYU will likely keep winning, and the numbers will likely continue to be eye-opening. But with a patchwork schedule that’s doing him no favors, it’s back to those same old roadblocks getting in the way.

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