NFL Week 5 preview: 45 stats which will determine who wins this weekend
We’ve entered the second quarter of the 2020 NFL season, and there’s a litany of games in Week 5 which will have major long-term implications.
For all the stats you could ever want, check out Pro Football Reference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Best mismatch for Buccaneers: Bring the heat. Tampa Bay blitzes 41.4 percent of the time, third-most. Chicago is vulnerable with weak tackles, a stationary quarterback and only one top target.
Best mismatch for Bears: Mr. Robinson says hello. Allen Robinson has consecutive 100-yard games coming in to Thursday. Against Tampa, he’ll see ample man-to-man coverage against overmatched corners. Nick Foles has to make the throw.
Stat to know: Chicago’s missed only 12 tackles, best in the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets
Best mismatch for Cardinals: Keep moving. The Cardinals have game-breakers in Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins, and New York has missed a league-worst 53 tackles.
Best mismatch for Jets: Make a play. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 623 yards after catch. New York must get the ball in space.
Stat to know: The Cardinals and Jets have each taken 32 penalties, tied for most in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Best mismatch for Bills: Darken the sky. Buffalo averages 9.0 yards per attempt, second-best in the circuit. Tennessee ranks 23rd against, allowing 7.1 yards.
Best mismatch for Titans: Get home. Josh Allen takes 3.07 seconds to throw on average, ranking ahead of only Drew Lock and Baker Mayfield. Tennessee’s defense is fifth in pressure rate at 27 percent.
Stat to know: Tennessee allows 5.8 YPC, ranking 32nd-overall. However, the Bills average 3.7 YPC, checking in at 29th.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Best mismatch for Panthers: Come and try it. Carolina allows a league-best 8.8 yards per completion. With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley hampered/sidelined, this is a problem for Atlanta.
Best mismatch for Falcons: Find time. Carolina only has three sacks this season, fewest of any team. Matt Ryan should have a chance to survey a young defense.
Stat to know: The Falcons have allowed a whopping 17 touchdown passes, worst in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Best mismatch for Bengals: Beat the blitz. Baltimore blitzes 42.5 percent of the time (only the Steelers are more frequent). Joe Burrow needs to get the ball out quickly to Joe Mixon and his speedy receivers.
Best mismatch for Ravens: Stay on the ground. Baltimore averaged 4.4 YPC, second-best in the league. Cincinnati is 26th against on YPC, giving up the same amount.
Stat to know: Cincinnati has 14 quarterback hits, only better than Carolina (12).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Best mismatch for Jaguars: Hit Watson. The Texans allow the worst sack rate (11.1%) while Jacksonville has the fourth-best QB knockdown rate (11.9%).
Best mismatch for Texans: Get the ball out. Jacksonville’s defense allows a league-high 77 percent completion rate. Deshaun Watson should throw fast and let his receivers make plays.
Stat to know: Houston has the second-best yards per completion figure (13.0 yards per). Watch for the deep ball.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team
Best mismatch for Rams: Get off the field. Washington is the worst third-down offense going, converting 33.3 percent of attempts. Los Angeles is a solid 13th defensively at a 40.4 percent rate.
Best mismatch for Football Team: Knife in the backfield. Washington has 22 tackles for loss, fifth-most in football. The Rams’ front wall can be penetrated, ergo putting Jared Goff in tough situations.
Stat to know: Dwayne Haskins has taken only 2.37 seconds to throw on average, quickest in the league.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Best mismatch for Raiders: Break one. The Raiders are third-best in the NFL with 14.5 yards per punt return. Kansas City has allowed 12.5 yards/return, 28th in football.
Best mismatch for Chiefs: Stand and fire. Las Vegas ranks 28th with a 17.5 percent pressure rate. Against Patrick Mahomes, that’s a major problem.
Stat to know: The Raiders and Chiefs are second and third respectively in drives ending in a score, at 55.3 and 55.2 percent.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best mismatch for Eagles: Force an error. Philadelphia leads the league with 17 sacks, and Ben Roethlisberger is prone to making errors, with double-digit interceptions each year from 2015-18.
Best mismatch for Steelers: Pressure all day. The Steelers rank first in hurry rate at 22 percent, while the Eagles have allowed the third-most sacks with 14.
Stat to know: Carson Wentz leads the NFL with seven interceptions through four games.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Best mismatch for Dolphins: Win field position. Miami is best in football by allowing 14.5 yards per kick return. San Francisco is a pedestrian 16th with 21.8 yards per such return.
Best mismatch for 49ers: Don’t throw here. Miami checks in 27th with 10.1 yards per completion. The 49ers are second-best defensively in said category, allowing 9.5 YPC.
Stat to know: The Dolphins have the worst defense by yards per play, surrendering an average of 6.6.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Best mismatch for Broncos: Specials being special. Denver averages 13.7 yards per punt return. With injuries galore and Brett Rypien under center, the Broncos need to bust a few big ones.
Best mismatch for Patriots: Discipline. The Broncos have benefitted from 35 penalties called on their opponents, most in the NFL. New England has committed the fewest with 11.
Stat to know: Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham combined for four interceptions in Kansas City. However, the Broncos are one of four teams with one interception or less all year.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Best mismatch for Colts: Throw it away. Cleveland is 25th in yards per completion (10.5) while Indianapolis ranks third, allowing 9.6 YPC.
Best mismatch for Browns: Get that ball. The Browns have forced 10 turnovers this year, best in the NFL. Philip Rivers has already thrown three interceptions and last year tossed 20.
Stat to know: The Colts’ defense is averaging 4.4 yards per play against, almost a full half-yard better than any other team.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Best mismatch for Giants: Make ’em count. Dallas allows 8.6 percent of pass attempts for touchdowns, worst in the NFL. Daniel Jones needs to push the ball downfield and be forceful in the red zone.
Best mismatch for Cowboys: Hold on. Jones is behind a line that has allowed 14 sacks, third-most in football. Aldon Smith and DeMarcus Lawrence should cause major issues for Jones, who holds the ball.
Stat to know: Dallas has registered 83 first downs passing this season, 15 more than the second-best squad (Cincinnati).
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Best mismatch for Vikings: Get moving. Seattle has allowed the most air yards (1,111) in football, 298 worse than anybody else. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson must take advantage.
Best mismatch for Seahawks: Watch the ball. Kirk Cousins has thrown six interceptions, second-worst in football. Seattle is second-best with six picks on defense.
Stat to know: Minnesota allows scores on 60.5 percent of all drives, a league-worst mark.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints
Best mismatch for Chargers: Sit and wait. The Chargers blitz a league-low 10.7 percent of the time. Drew Brees averages an NFL-worst 5.8 air yards intended average. Los Angeles will have plenty of guys in coverage underneath.
Best mismatch for Saints: Spot your man. Los Angeles ranks 27th with six sacks and will be without Melvin Ingram. With Michael Thomas likely back and the lacking of blitzing against, Brees will have time to find the open man.
Stat to know: The Chargers have only made 10 red zone trips, tied for third-worst in football.