NFC West: The key metrics behind success of NFL’s best division
The NFC West could send all four teams to the playoffs.
One of the many questions posed ahead of the 2020 NFL season surrounded whether an entire division could make the playoffs following the change to a 14-team postseason. The NFC West was viewed as the favorite to achieve that feat and, seven weeks into the campaign, there remains a decent chance all four of its teams will be among the last seven standing un the conference come January.
They are all over .500 following the San Francisco 49ers’ dominant victory over the New England Patriots and are all in the top 11 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which measures team efficiency.
According to Football Outsiders, the entire division makes the playoffs in 4.8 percent of their simulations.
The toughest division in the NFL is living up to its billing. Here we identify metrics for each NFC West team that have been key to their respective strong performances in 2020.
Seattle Seahawks – Early down pass rate
The Seahawks still lead the division despite their thrilling 37-34 overtime defeat to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Night Football, with their 5-1 record primarily down to the decision to finally put the ball in the hands of their best player, quarterback Russell Wilson.
Seattle, per The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin, is throwing the ball on 63 percent of early downs, the most of any team in the league. Pete Carroll has seemingly bent to the will of the ‘Let Russ Cook‘ movement and the results have been spectacular.
Though he threw three interceptions against Arizona, Wilson leads the NFL in touchdown percentage (10 %), adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (9.4) and Next Gen Stats’ Completion Percentage Over Expected (7.5%).
He is rightly the frontrunner for MVP and the Seahawks’ offensive efficiency – they are second in offensive DVOA and fourth in pass offense DVOA – has helped Seattle overcome some significant struggles on defense.
Seattle is a lowly 28th in defensive DVOA, however, as long as Wilson has the freedom to keep throwing on early downs, the Seahawks’ inability to stop opposing attacks will likely prove immaterial.
Arizona Cardinals – Pass block win rate
Half a game back in the division and with wins over the defending champion 49ers and the frontrunning Seahawks, the Cardinals are in an excellent position to return to the playoffs for the first time since their run to the NFC Championship game in 2015.
The legs of Kyler Murray have played a more significant role than perhaps anticipated while the acquisition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has predictably been crucial to their impressive start.
Maybe even more critical, however, has been the improved play of the offensive line. According to ESPN, the Cardinals lead the NFL with a Pass Block Win Rate of 70 percent.
Murray’s scrambling ability can make an O-Line look better than it is and he has only been sacked nine times this season. However, the numbers suggest Arizona is consistently controlling matters in the trenches in pass protection and that also appears to be the case in run blocking.
The Cardinals are tied for the league-lead in Run Block Win Rate with the Green Bay Packers and the Patriots. They are winning 73 percent of their run blocks, aiding a ground game that ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA.
It is a remarkable turnaround from an O-Line that contributed to Murray being sacked 48 times as a rookie. The Cardinals’ success in staying strong up front will be key to Murray making the necessary strides to develop into an elite quarterback.
Los Angeles Rams – Run offense DVOA
Los Angeles’ rushing attack played a pivotal role in their run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and, after a disappointing 2019, it is seemingly back to its best.
Working with a committee backfield of Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and sparingly used rookie Cam Akers, the Rams have topped 100 yards rushing in all but one of their games this season.
They lead the league in run offense DVOA, with a healthier offensive line enjoying the benefit of continuity. The Rams are first in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards, which takes running back carries and attributes yardage to the O-Line.
The consistency of the running game has allowed the Rams to take the pressure off quarterback Jared Goff, who has looked some way off his 2018 vintage in recent weeks.
If the Rams are to make a deep run in January, they may need to lean on the ground game and the defense rather than their 2016 first overall pick.
San Francisco 49ers – Pass defense DVOA
San Francisco’s performance in rush offense DVOA has been just as impressive as that of the Rams. The Niners are second in that metric, with a revitalized run game playing a substantial role in their consecutive wins over the Rams and Patriots that have Kyle Shanahan’s team firmly back in the playoff mix at 4-3.
Yet arguably more important than the 49ers’ resurgence on offense has been their stingy pass defense. The 49ers are eighth in defensive DVOA and 13th in pass defensive DVOA.
That may not sound overly impressive but the fact they are still in the top half of the league defending the pass despite missing edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford speaks to an exceptional job being done by the coaching staff.
A banged-up secondary minus Richard Sherman but featuring a Comeback Player of the Year candidate in Jason Verrett is carrying the burden, with the Niners’ Pass Rush Win Rate of 38 percent (24th in the NFL), per ESPN, speaking to San Francisco’s reliance on the back seven.
The 49ers’ pass defense looks to be getting continually stronger. Over the past two weeks, opposing quarterbacks facing San Francisco have averaged minus 0.177 Expected Points Added per dropback.
Only the Miami Dolphins, who were on bye in Week 7 after facing the New York Jets in Week 6, and the Denver Broncos have fared better than the 49ers defense in that timeframe.
With Wilson and the Seahawks next up for the Niners, their secondary may be getting hot at exactly the right time.