College football picks against the spread: How to bet Week 11’s biggest games

College football picks against the spread for Week 11, which has been decimated by cancelations and postponements due to the coronavirus.

This week’s Top-25 schedule is missing that key matchup after it gave college football fans two last weekend. Zero Top 25 teams are facing off against each other. Four SEC games have already been postponed because of COVID infections, including Alabama’s matchup with LSU and Texas A&M going on the road to take on Tennessee. Ohio State’s game vs. Maryland was also called off after eight Terrapins players tested positive for the virus. Taking these teams off an already soft schedule brings the quality down as a whole.

Still, this feels like a good week to get more involved in the betting game, since so many teams are facing lesser matchups. This week is more about playing the odds. There will be lots of double-digit spreads and bettors just need to pick how bad they think the favorites will win in a lot of these matchups. The money line will have some good odds in some games, so there is an opportunity to win money straight up as well.

Despite the strange way the schedule played out, there is still the second week of Pac 12 play, the Big Ten moving past the cobb webs, turmoil in the Big 12 about who should sit at the top, and what will happen to the ACC now that Clemson has a loss on the books. There’s a lot of fallout to everything that happened last week, as Florida looks to re-establish themselves and Notre Dame crowns itself as a full-fledged contender. Also, there lurks the idea that Cincinnati can become the first Power 5 school to make the College Football Playoff.

All lines are taken from the William Hill Sportsbook.

Week 11college football picks against the spread

South Alabama vs. No. 25 Louisiana (-15.5)

Louisiana finds itself back in the Top 25 after a strange season. They started things off with a win against Iowa State, and it looked like a special season was incoming for the Rajin Cajuns. A loss to Coastal Carolina knocked them out for a month, but three-straight wins have UL back in the rankings. Coastal Carolina and Louisiana are close in talent level, and the former beat South Alabama by 17 last week. It’s not a very confident pick but go with the home team here.

Pick: Louisiana (-15.5) 

No. 23 Northwestern (-3) vs. Purdue

Purdue was put on ice after a COVID outbreak on Wisconsin, so they’ve been waiting a couple of weeks for this game. They have an interesting offense, with Zander Horvath rushing for 100 yards in back-to-back games against Iowa and Illinois. Northwestern has also been impressive, knocking the blocks off Maryland before winning close games with Iowa and Nebraska. These two teams actually feel closer than this line says. Purdue has some real talent, and with them being home and getting points, it’s the move to make.

Pick: Purdue (+3)

Western Carolina vs. No. 22 Liberty (-32.5)

Liberty is coming off its biggest win in a long time, beating Virginia Tech straight up last week. It has them moving up the rankings, and the oddsmakers are giving them respect after giving the Hokies two touchdowns last week. Western Carolina hasn’t played a game yet this season. This is a complete stay away with the line like this. Go with Liberty only if you absolutely have to.

Pick: Liberty (-32.5)

No. 20 USC (-13.5) vs.Arizona

Arizona waited months to play a game, only to have it canceled on Friday before the kick. Arizona is not expected to be any good this season, and USC is looking like the top team in the division, if not the Pac 12 as a whole. The Trojans were able to pass the test of Arizona State last week, and now they face a team that doesn’t have a game under their belt. It will take some time to work out the kinks, but USC can put three touchdowns on the Wildcats before they blink.

Pick: USC (-13.5)

No. 19 SMU vs.Tulsa (-2.5)

SMU has only lost one game this season, a blowout at the hands of Cincinnati. Tulsa was supposed to play Cincy, but that game was postponed. Their hardest game was against Oklahoma State, and they ended up on the losing side of things. These teams are in a very similar position, and this win likely leaves the loser out of the rankings for good. SMU has been scoring at an impressive clip this season, ranking in the top 15 in the entire country with 40.5 points per game. Tulsa can also score, but this might be the matchup of who scores the last points. That usually leans towards the team getting the points.

Pick: SMU (+2.5)

Middle Tennessee at No. 16 Marshall (-23.5)

Middle Tennessee has actually been impressive as of late. They’ve covered the spread in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Marshall hasn’t covered the spread since beating Louisiana Tech on October 17th. They come into the game undefeated. Marshall is getting this number for a reason, but it feels at least two and a half points too high.

Pick: Middle Tennessee (+23.5)

No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-11) at Troy

Coastal Carolina has to be careful here. Troy is a good team, and the Chanticleers are facing Appalachian State next week. This could be a clear trap game. Coastal Carolina has a good enough defense to stop Troy, but their passing attack can at least pierce that defense enough to cover. Gunnar Watson is still in doubt, so bettors need to wait. If the Troy quarterback is good to go for this game, throw some money on the home team.

Pick: Troy (+11)

No. 13 Wisconsin (-4.5) at Michigan

Once again, Michigan is a disappointment in the Big Ten. It seems like every year this team finds a different way to fall under expectations. After three weeks of Big Ten play, the Wolverines are once again unranked. Completely not showing up against Indiana is unacceptable with the talent level on this team is unacceptable. Here’s the problem, Wisconsin actually didn’t show up to their last matchup. They are coming off multiple COVID tests, and they haven’t played since October 23rd. With that much time off, and seemingly forcing this game on the schedule, Wisconsin will be shorthanded, and Michigan will be desperate at home. This is a bad combination for the Badgers.

Pick: Michigan (+4.5)

No. 11 Oregon (-7.5) at Washington State

Everyone is talking about USC as the favorite in the Pac 12, but Oregon is still the highest-rated team. These two teams played one of the best games of the season last year. Washington State scored a go-ahead touchdown with a minute left in the game, only for the Ducks to rush down the field and kick a game-winning field goal as time expired. Any worries the Oregon offense would sputter without Justin Herbert did not show against Stanford, as they put up almost 500 yards and 35 points. Meanwhile, Washington State beat Oregon State. This will be fun, but there’s just more confidence in the Ducks. That point spread is too high, but this is still a pick for Oregon.

Pick: Oregon (-7.5)

No. 10 Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State

This one is the pick of the week. Michigan State is still a bad team despite beating Michigan. The Spartans got annihilated by Iowa last week. How are they going to even come close against an Indiana team that has been beating everyone in front of them? It would be a big surprise if Indiana doesn’t win by at least two touchdowns. In fact, get the extra odds by betting this up to -10.5.

Pick: Indiana (-7.5)

No. 9 Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (-2)

This line is…. strange. Why is Virginia Tech favored against a top-ten Miami team one week after losing to Liberty? It was a heartbreaker, but the Hokies went into that game as a two-touchdown favorite, and they lost despite the mess that was the blocked field goal at the end. D’Eriq King is a different kind of opponent. He’s extremely hard to stop, and Va. Tech doesn’t have the right personnel to stop him.

Pick: Miami (+2)

East Carolina at No. 7 Cincinnati (-27)

Cincinnati is trying to make a real case to be one of the teams in the College Football Playoff. To do that, they need to destroy every team on their schedule. They know that. East Carolina has been terrible this season, coming into the matchup with just one win. Cincinnati needs to put a foot on this team quickly. This should be an easy cover, even with an almost four-touchdown spread. They beat their last three opponents by at least 28 points, and they were all a lot better than ECU.

Pick: Cincinnati (-27)

Arkansas at No. 6 Florida (-17.5)

Florida is flying extremely high after finally beating Georgia last week. It’s been a tumultuous season for the Gators, surrounded by bad headlines and an upset to Texas A&M (which doesn’t look so bad now). However, for one Saturday everything was okay again. Now, they have to avoid the letdown. Arkansas is coming into The Swamp as a huge underdog. There’s one key here. Feleipe Franks. He’s got every motivation in this game, and he will come in knowing he’s facing the team that chose Kyle Trask over him (a good decision, by the way). Another X-factor is the availability of Kyle Pitts. Those three factors point to taking the points.

Pick: Arkansas (+17.5)

No. 2 Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College

With three of the four games featuring top-five teams either canceled or postponed due to COVID-19, Notre Dame is the only team actually playing. This is a very intriguing matchup for the Irish. They are coming off one of the biggest wins they’ve had in a long time. They just beat number one Clemson, but now they go on the road to take on a frisky Boston College team. Like the Florida matchup, a former Notre Dame quarterback who was looked over faces his old team. Phil Jurkovec has been good this season for the Eagles, but the talent surrounding him probably doesn’t get him a win. It does, however, get him a couple of scores against a team that’s still celebrating after last week. The team had to answer questions about its fans rushing the field, and there are just a lot of distractions against a competent team that kept Clemson within one score a couple of weeks ago. The spread is too high.

Pick: Boston College (+13.5)

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