Patrick Mahomes outguns Tom Brady in dazzling performance
By Ian Wharton
Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes nearly broke the single-game passing record against Tampa Bay. We have his report card and analysis.
The biggest headline matchup of the week featured the clubhouse leader for the 2020 NFL MVP Award, Patrick Mahomes, and arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. The two combined for an incredible 802 yards and six scores in the Kansas City Chiefs’ 27-24 win. The Chiefs all but locked up the AFC West, while the Buccaneers slid to a dangerous 7-5 record.
Mahomes and Tyreek Hill put on a show for the ages as they both neared massive NFL single-game records. Mahomes was 92 yards away from breaking Norm Van Brocklin’s passing record of 552 yards and Hill was only 67 yards away from Flipper Anderson’s receiving record. That 92 yards may seem like a lot, but Mahomes was a miscommunication away from getting 90 yards on one completion to Mecole Hardman.
Even without the record in hand, Mahomes put his foot down to cement the MVP Award and his status as the undisputed best offensive player in the NFL. He completed 37-of-49 attempts for 462 yards and three touchdowns. The bulk of his damage came in the first half, when he had 302 yards with about nine minutes remaining in the second quarter.
We’re looking beyond the stat sheet to analyze Mahomes this season. I’ve been charting catchable passes for the last six years for collegiate quarterback prospects, and the results have brought solid baselines in key areas of accuracy to project NFL success.
Mahomes benefitted from this, and the project is partially why I was so high on him as a prospect. We’ll be grading him on playmaking, decision-making, accuracy, efficiency, and awareness in addition to tracking his directional and situational passing effectiveness.
Playmaking: A+
The 2020 season has seen a mature version of Mahomes that prioritizes less giant-play creation outside of structure and more about taking what the defense gives until it’s time to take over. This new level of mastery has made him more dangerous than ever before because he’s never losing control of the game. He plays on his terms and has become as efficient as arguably the most efficient quarterback ever, Aaron Rodgers.
He still mixes in the play-extending scrambles and quick passes like the one above. The regularity of his no-look passes and adjusted arm-angle throws are impressive enough, but then factor in the rate he’s throwing accurate darts and the overall gap between he and most of his peers is growing by the game.
Much of his playmaking has become pocket-oriented and this game encapsulated that so well. He’s moving safeties away from his intended target better than ever, and pocket manipulation remains a superior strength. His arm talent and accuracy helps him deliver on these difficult deep throws but he opens the catch window with small movements.
The above video has Mahomes opening room for Hill by looking off the safety, and then launching upwards into the pocket when he’s ready to heave downfield. This 75-yard touchdown is a phenomenal play and show of touch.
Decision-Making: A+
Mahomes is now down to throwing an interception on just .5 percent of his throws in 2020, which is an absurd number. He’s had more interceptable throws than the two he’s earned but not many. His decision-making has consistently been fantastic this year.
He had zero interceptable throws this game since the two he had were nullified by penalty. Just seven of his attempts were inaccurate, an insane figure that happens only when the decision-making is as pure as this performance. He also knew when to extend plays and when to work for his desired outcome.
Obviously Hill also went off this week and some of that is due to judicious shots downfield despite good coverage. Again this falls into decision-making. He recognized that Hill’s speed and aggressiveness at the catch point would be a tough matchup for Carlton Davis and took full advantage all game long.
Accuracy: A+
The catchable ball numbers for every part of the field were insane for the golden-armed passer. He was accurate on four-of-eight deep passes for two touchdowns, five-of-six on intermediate routes with another score, and 22-of-24 on throws 0-10 yards. The Buccaneers only received reprieve when the offense decided to throttle down as the game progressed.
So many of his passes hit his target in stride that nearby defenders were left whiffing at the air as the receiver continued upfield. The combination of the league’s best passer and leading two receivers in Hill and Travis Kelce has become an insane juggernaut with Andy Reid pulling the strings with unique play-action and pre-snap movement.
Any type of shaded coverage to one side of the field leads to a plethora of passes to the middle of the field, but single-high coverage is a recipe for deep shots to connect. Trying to formulate a balanced set of looks that can disrupt the unit is nearly impossible, and requires perfect execution from defenders.
Efficiency: A
The situational play for Mahomes continues to be stellar. He was accurate on five-of-seven third downs and logged a touchdown to Hill on one attempt. Just one of those misses was on a third-and-long, and he still nearly completed the third-and-27 for about 25 yards.
By going four-of-five on intermediate third downs (between five and nine yards), he was able to break the Buccaneers’ defense. That distance is usually what determines how games are played out. And Mahomes lived in comfort on these opportunities.
His ability to extend drives is what cost Tampa Bay the game. They couldn’t find consistent success here as Brady was throwing the ball all over the place, while Mahomes calmly picked apart the soft zone and open windows.
Awareness: A-
The lone knock on Mahomes was taking a strip sack that he could’ve dumped before being hit from behind. The quick sack could’ve been a bigger deal in a closer game but it did keep the Chiefs out of the end zone in a shrinking lead. He so rarely causes sacks by holding onto the ball that it was shocking to see the turnover.
Otherwise this was an excellent, nearly flawless game from the All-Pro 25-year-old. His destruction of this defense in a primetime matchup leaves him on pace to set a career-best completion rate and interception total, while rivaling his best touchdown and yards per game averages.
We’re truly in the midst of a special career from Mahomes, and it’s his world. The Chiefs will take on the Denver Broncos next week, and that’s historically been a tough game for this offense. We’ll see if Mahomes can shake off his past struggles to put up a big performance again.