NFL playoff picture clears, power rankings, 2021 rookie QBs and more

With three weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, we now have a clearer picture in both conferences of the path to the playoffs.

In golf, Saturday is moving day on the leaderboard. For the NFL, moving day came in Week 14.

No less than eight games had both participants either in legitimate contention for a playoff berth, or fighting for seeding. Count Thursday’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots, and Monday’s tilt with the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, and that’s 10.

Of course, the results essentially eliminated a few teams, clearing up multiple situations and crystalizing others as we head into the holidays.

First, here’s how the updated playoff pictures look, with assessments of where each team stands going into the final three weeks:

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
4. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
5. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
6. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
7. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
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8. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
10. New England Patriots (6-7)

Patriots, Raiders: Win out and pray. A lot.

Wild Card chaos: Alright, tons to parse through. For starters, Cleveland hosts Baltimore on Monday night. Regardless of the result, Baltimore doesn’t move into the playoff picture, and Cleveland remains at the No. 5.

For the Ravens, a win in Cleveland means big things. Baltimore (vs. JAX, vs. NYG, @ CIN) has a comical schedule over the final three weeks. If the Ravens get to 7-5, the only way they don’t reach the playoffs is the three teams ahead of them all winning out.

The Dolphins (vs. NE, @ LV, @ BUF) have a tough slate. Miami likely needs to win at least twice in this stretch. if they finish 10-6, Brian Flores’ group has a shot, although it might take running the table considering where everyone else is.

As for Indianapolis, the win over Las Vegas was enormous. The Colts (vs. HOU, @ PIT, vs. JAX) lose head-to-head breakers with the Ravens and Browns but now hold it on the Raiders. A win in any of the final three weeks means Las Vegas can’t pass them.

Indy clinches a playoff berth with two more wins, regardless of how they come, unless Baltimore and Miami both win out.

Finally, the Browns. Cleveland (vs. BAL, @ NYG, @ NYJ, vs. PIT) needs two wins to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2002. The Browns can still win the AFC North, but would likely need to beat the Steelers in Week 17 and get other favorable results.

The division leaders/winners: Let’s start at the top. Kansas City (@ NO, vs. ATL, vs. LAC) has won the AFC West. Even if the Steelers win out, the Chiefs only need a split against their NFC opponents and a victory over Los Angeles to earn home-field advantage, based on the common opponent tiebreaker.

Pittsburgh remains in the AFC North driver’s seat, but the Browns are only a game back in the loss column. The Steelers (@ CIN, vs. IND, @ CLE) can clinch the division with Cleveland losing to Baltimore, and Pittsburgh winning any game on its schedule.

For the second seed, the Steelers have to finish ahead of Buffalo and at least even with Tennessee.

For the Bills (@ DEN, @ NE, vs. MIA), a win in any of their final three games wins the AFC East for the first time since 1995.   Keep in mind, Buffalo wins the tiebreaker against Pittsburgh but loses it to the Chiefs and Titans, all due to head-to-head tiebreakers.

Lastly, the Titans. Tennessee (vs. DET, @ GB, @ HOU) clinches a playoff berth with two more wins, already having the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore. The Titans can move up to the third seed by ending with the same record as Buffalo, but would need to have a better mark than Pittsburgh, who beat the Titans in October. Tennessee can’t catch Kansas City.

Alright, Monday night and three weeks of football remaining. Hope your team is in the mix.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
2. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
4. Washington Football Team (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
7. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
—
8. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
9. Chicago Bears (6-7)
10. New York Giants (5-8)*
11. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)*

Bears, Vikings: Win out and a ton of help. We’re talking about pulling an inside straight and then some.

The NFC East: Philadelphia, Washington and New York are all fighting for the fourth seed and nothing else. It’s either win the division or go home. The Football Team has the Seahawks and Carolina Panthers at home before traveling to Philadelphia in Week 17.

If Washington beats the Eagles and one of its home games, New York would have to run the table. Otherwise, Ron Rivera and Co. reach the playoffs.

Philadelphia (@ AZ, @ DAL, WSH) likely needs to win twice, with Washington being the biggest tilt. New York (vs. CLE, @ BAL, vs. DAL) owns the tiebreaker against the Football Team, so while winning out seems unlikely, a 2-1 mark puts pressure on Washington to win all three.

NFC Wild Card race: By beating New York, the Cardinals took a huge step. Combined with Minnesota’s loss to Tampa Bay, Arizona takes over the No. 7 seed while being a game better in the conference as well. The Cardinals (vs. PHI, vs. SF, @ LAR) are in with two more wins.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (@ ATL, @ DET, vs. ATL) have a very favorable slate. One win means Minnesota can’t catch them. If Tampa Bay and Arizona tie, the Cards win out based on what would be a better conference record.

NFC West and some fun: The Seahawks plowed the New York Jets, keeping them tied with the Rams for the NFC West lead, albeit with Los Angeles leading via its head-to-head victory. Seattle (@WSH, vs. LAR, @ SF) and the Rams (vs. NYJ, @ SEA, vs. AZ) each have moderately difficult schedules.

If Los Angeles can beat the Jets and then the Seahawks in Week 16, the division is over. For Seattle, the Seahawks likely need to take down the Rams to have realistic shot at the NFC West. Otherwise, Seattle can win twice in any fashion and be no worse than the No. 5 seed due to conference record.

Top-tier talk: With Sunday’s win, the Packers move ahead of the Saints via their Week 3 win over New Orleans. The Saints (vs. KC, vs. MIN, @ CAR) likely need to win out and then get a loss from Green Bay (vs. CAR, vs. TEN, @ CHI) who will be favored in each of its last three games.

With one more win, New Orleans can clinch the NFC South, while the Packers locked up the NFC North on Sunday.

Power rankings

Top 10 offensive rookie seasons thus far

1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (65 catches, 1,078 yards, 7 TDs)
2. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (3,467 passing yards, 25 TDs)
3. James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1,035 rushing yards, 326 receiving yards, 9 TDs)
4. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (2,688 passing yards, 13 TDs)
5. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 penalties, 1 sack allowed)
6. Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (50 catches, 664 yards, 8 TDs)
7. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team (659 rushing yards, 233 receiving yards, 11 TDs)
8. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (58 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDs)
9. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (61 catches, 742 yards, 4 TDs)
10. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (724 rushing yards, 293 receiving yards, 5 TDs)

Quotable

Tough to see Dan Bailey having a job next weekend. Four kicks, four misses.

The Vikings left 10 critical points on the field, and this after Bailey missed a field goal and two extra points in an overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13.

Podcast

Random stat

Dave Hampton rushed for 1,000 yards twice in his career. Sort of.

In 1972, the Atlanta Falcons running back went over the 1,000-yard threshold in the season’s final game against Kansas City. The game was stopped, Hampton was given a trophy, and then he promptly lost six yards. Incredibly, Hampton finished with 995 rushing yards.

Undeterred, Hampton had another strong campaign in ’73, and rushed for … 997 yards. Finally, in ’75, the veteran back caught his white whale, gaining 1,002 yards.

Info learned this week

1. Chiefs continue winning, but closing time is an issue

Over its past five games, Kansas City is 5-0. However, it has had a different look.

Yes, nitpicking a 12-1 team is exactly that, but it’s important in the context of playoff football. Against the Dolphins, the Chiefs led 30-10 entering the fourth quarter only to commit a bad Patrick Mahomes interception — his third on the day. The Dolphins then scored 14 unanswered points before Kansas City faced a key 4th and 1 with 2:31 remaining at the Miami 40-yard line.

A first down in-bounds would have sealed the game, but Tyreek Hill caught the ball and went out of bounds at Miami’s 18. Still, three dives into the line and Kansas City brings the clock to roughly 30 seconds, while giving Harrison Butker a relative chip shot.

Instead, the Chiefs lost three yards on a run (two-minute warning) before taking an illegal shift penalty on second down. The result was an eight-yard loss and the clock stopping. On third down, head coach Andy Reid called for a pass, with Mahomes wisely scrambling for a yard.

Kansas City was eventually bailed out by Butker, who nailed a game-clinching field goal from 46 yards.

Still, this is becoming a problem. Last week, Kansas City blew four red zone opportunities and needed to ward off the overmatched Denver Broncos, 22-16. The week before, the Chiefs raced to a 17-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before holding on, 27-24.

Kansas City is football’s best team, but it’s making enough mistakes to open the door.

2. Saints need Drew Brees back after watching the past three weeks

Nobody here is going to criticize New Orleans for losing to the Eagles. After all, the Saints had won nine straight before Sunday.

And yet, the loss highlighted a major problem. Taysom Hill is fun, but he’s not Drew Brees.

At halftime, the Eagles led the Saints 17-0 with Hill throwing for 65 yards and an interception on 15 attempts. He was better in the second half, but not great by ay stretch. It’s not the second time in three weeks he’s been borderline unplayable.

While New Orleans is right to wait for Brees to heal fully — it needs him to have any hope in January — the Saints are one loss away from potentially looking at road games come the Divisional round.

We went over the playoff picture above, so let’s go a step further. If New Orleans doesn’t earn the NFC’s bye, it’ll need to win three consecutive playoff games. The last time a team playing on Wild Card weekend reached the Super Bowl? The 2012 Baltimore Ravens.

Getting a week off remains in play, but the Saints beating the Chiefs with Hill? Huge ask.

3. Seahawks are quietly playing much better defensively

Remember when the Seahawks couldn’t play defense? Those days appear to be over.

And no, not because they trounced the New York Jets. Because the unit has been excellent for over a month.

Seattle has allowed no more than 23 points over the last five games, a stretch where the offense has struggled at times. The Seahawks have notched 17 sacks over the same span, led by baiting extraordinaire Jamal Adams and mid-season pickup, Carlos Dunlap.

Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. has to be feeling encouraged, especially if the offense found its footing in the blowout win over New York. More points means ample opportunities to blitz with impunity.

The NFC has been wide open all year, begging a team to move to the fore. New Orleans still appears the most complete team when Brees is in the lineup, but Seattle’s defensive surge is changing the conversation.

4. Raiders have big decisions ahead on both sides of ball

After losing 44-27 to the Colts on Sunday, postseason dreams are on life support for Las Vegas. The Raiders have gone from 6-3 to 7-6, with the only win being a miracle finish against the Jets. In short, a tough stretch means a long winter ahead.

Looking at the cap sheet, general manager Mike Mayock has a few tough calls to make. Keeping quarterback Derek Carr at a hit of $22.1 million seems certain, but what of receiver Nelson Agholor. Mayock took a flyer on the embattled former first-rounder, and he’s delivered as a deep threat. Agholor could be a one-hit wonder, or a key piece moving forward.

Defensively, it’s about using any cap space (could range from $4 million to $35 million depending on the threshold) to shore up the beleaguered unit. The Raiders rank near the bottom in a litany of defensive categories, holding them back from true contention. Now without the extra first-round picks of the Khalil Mack trade, Mayock has to hit without the previous outsized margin of error.

Las Vegas is close to being a staple in the playoffs. Carr looks solid. Jon Gruden is proving his worth. The young weaponry is abundant.

Time to figure out the commitment level to Agholor, and then fix the defense.

5. The Steelers must trust Big Ben more, and live with the consequences

Ben Roethlisberger needs to throw, and throw down the field. If that sinks the Steelers, so be it.

For 13 games, Roethlisberger has almost exclusively thrown quick slants and receiver screens. The result is an offense with no sizzle. Roethlisberger is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. How bad is that? Of anybody with at least 100 pass attempts this season, he ranks 33rd.

Although the Steelers are 11-2, the jig is up. Pittsburgh isn’t going to win in the playoffs against elite teams such as Buffalo and Kansas City with only the defense to rely on, regardless of its greatness. Roethlisberger needs to create a few chunk plays while getting consistent gains between 10-15 yards in the air.

If he can’t do that, Pittsburgh is finished anyway. Might as well try.

Gambler’s game

Consider taking the Broncos. Although they’re out of playoff contention, the Broncos have one of the league’s better defenses and a head coach in Vic Fangio who can utilize it. Josh Allen has been terrific, but he’s still young. Even Patrick Mahomes has struggled (relatively speaking) against Fangio.

This week, the Broncos host the Bills, who are favored by five points and are coming off a pair of emotional primetime games. Denver pulling the upset would be surprising, but on a sleepy Saturday afternoon in the Mile High City, Buffalo could be a prime candidate for an early sleepwalk and a tight affair.

Two cents

The NFL is more of a quarterback league now than ever before, and that won’t change this offseason.

Come the 2021 Draft, there are going to be a litany of options. In the latest CBS mock draft, there are a quartet of signal-callers off the board in the first 11 picks. In FanSided’s newest mock, a half-dozen quarterbacks are taken in the first round.

Of course, it’s December. Plenty will change between now and April. The Senior Bowl, Scouting Combine, physicals and private workouts will have their impacts. Still, the prospects are tantalizing, and if we know one concrete truth about the draft, quarterbacks get pushed up the board.

This year, we saw an influx of quality talent at the position in Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Tua Tagovailoa may also prove terrific, we just haven’t seen enough. Come the spring, the New York Jets appear a lock for Trevor Lawrence, followed by the Jaguars and Justin Fields.

After that? The Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Colts, Lions, Patriots and 49ers all seem realistic teams to watch to make a play.

The big takeaway? Veterans on the market — think Philip Rivers and Cam Newton — will have a tough time getting starting gigs as youngsters eat up jobs.

Inside the league

If the Colts go deep in the AFC playoffs, it’ll be because of their defense. While everyone knows DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Justin Houston, they ought to learn the name of Khari Willis.

During his draft process in 2019, I spoke at length with Willis. Seldom have I been more impressed with a player. Willis, 24, was humble but forceful, traits which shown through at the ’19 Big Ten media day. He was a representative for the Michigan State Spartans, and when he finished speaking after his hard-scrabble upbringing in Jackson, Mich., he was given a standing ovation.

A former fourth-round pick, Willis has earned a starting role this season and has notched 64 tackles, third-best on the team. He’s also added an interception, sacks, two tackles for loss and three passes defensed. The well-rounded stat line may surprise many, but it was always Willis’ projection for himself, dating back to our conversation.

"“I’m an aggressive tackler. A sure (tackler) in the open field who can also walk down, cover, blitz. I blitzed a lot. I can communicate on the back end. I can do it all.”"

At 5-foot-11 and 212 pounds, he was seen by some teams as small. Running a 4.52 at the Combine, Willis was overlooked for his lack of top-end speed. Yet all he’s done is produce, becoming one of the league’s best young safeties through intellect, toughness and attitude.

Indianapolis is trying to make a deep postseason jaunt. If they do, keep an eye on Willis.

History lesson

The NFL MVP award has been handed out since 1957. It’s only been shared twice.

In 1997, Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers) and Barry Sanders (Detroit Lions) split the honor. Six years later it happened again with Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) and Steve McNair (Tennessee Titans).

While it’s highly unlikely we see another co-MVP situation, this year might be the closest we’ve been in the last 15 years. Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are having spectacular, and very similar campaigns. If Mahomes notches 5,000 passing yards and Rodgers hits 50 touchdowns on two Super Bowl contenders, who gets the vote?

History says the voters will make a tough choice, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented to see a split decision.

Parting shot

Chicago can’t afford to buy into the past two weeks. There’s far too much evidence to the contrary.

The Bears dominated the Houston Texans on Sunday, winning 36-7 at Soldier Field. Mitch Trubisky was terrific, throwing for 267 yards (8.1 YPA) and three touchdowns without a turnover. Last Sunday, the former No. 2 overall pick went for 267 yards and a touchdown, albeit with a soul-crushing fumble in the final moments of a 34-30 loss to Detroit.

Over the last three weeks, Chicago plays the Vikings, Jaguars and Packers in what could be a meaningless Week 17 game for Green Bay. It’s conceivable Trubisky plays very well over the remainder of the season, gets the Bears to 8-8 (or even 9-7) and the murmurs start coming from Halas Hall about corners turned and lessons learned.

Don’t buy the hype.

The Bears traded for Nick Foles — Nick Foles — this offseason and declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option. We’ve seen this movie enough to know Trubisky can have moments of competence, only to be dashed by long stretches of ineptitude.

If Chicago plans to compete with the Packers in 2021, wholesale changes must be made to the offense. Trubisky playing a good few weeks can’t change that reality.