How good can Victor Oladipo still be?

Three seasons ago, Victor Oladipo was an All-NBA player. Following a ruptured quad in 2018-19, he’s still trying to regain that level of play. Can he do it?

Victor Oladipo is a forgotten man.

Almost three years ago, he wiggled, bolted and scored his way into a seven-game, first-round duel with LeBron James, nearly leading his Indiana Pacers to an upset victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. He earned All-NBA, All-Defensive Team and Most Improved Player votes. At 25, his breakout fifth season looked the part of a prelude to a joyful, lucrative prime that would guide the Pacers to heights beyond mere playoff berths, a destination they’ve still yet to reach since 2013-14.

Here we sit, a few weeks ahead of 2021, with the Pacers still an afterthought, deemed a playoff lock and nothing more, and the storylines involving Oladipo, now 28, centered predominantly on his rumored discontent in Indianapolis and what he might fetch in a trade.

Perceptions of the Pacers rarely price in the idea of Oladipo returning to near-All-Star form or a high-end starter who simplifies the game for his peers. For many, he is no longer someone who alters the calculus of this team’s projection or even someone with the chance to be that person.

Yet, despite his injury-plagued 2018-19 and sporadic, largely underwhelming 2019-20, there remains a player, one who could still be quite good and useful, contained inside all of this hoopla. He is not the budding superstar of yesteryear, but Oladipo exhibited signs of improved and renewed comfort during bubble play compared to his 11 games before the season’s hiatus.

The most prominent and critical aspect in which he took a step forward this past summer was how he harnessed his burst as a scorer and driver. Prior to the bubble, he still showcased much of the horizontal explosion that has long headlined his game, but the deceleration, ability to toggle across speeds and maintain speed out of dribble moves was not prevalent. He rediscovered the shifting of gears as a means of creation, more in control of his athletic tools and how to leverage them into beneficial opportunities.

Another four months removed, and nearly two years total, from his ruptured quad when the 2020-21 regular season begins, it is possible, perhaps plausible, he looks even more like his pre-injury self. The layoff from mid-March to late July evidently afforded him a window to regain the vital fusing of burst with start-stop shiftiness. Every player following an injury needs reps to establish their rhythm, but it appears especially pertinent for Oladipo, whose creation is closely tied to how successfully he applies his quickness against defenders.

While Oladipo more commonly crafted advantages on the ball in the bubble, his true shooting never hit an efficient threshold for premier initiators (53.5 percent), though it represented a significant uptick from his 49.9 percent mark in 13 games prior to the season’s suspension. The hurdles for him revolve around shaking off the rust and finding ways to recover his efficiency.

He’s not eclipsed a free-throw rate of .275 the past five seasons, failing to generate easy scoring chances at the line. Even during his All-Star campaign, his free-throw rate landed at .274, so expecting him to blossom as a savvy foul-drawer is imprudent. In 2017-18, he rode versatile shooting and elite finishing to 57.7 percent true shooting (career-high 2.1 points above NBA average), neither of which have returned since that year.

Amid that season, he ranked in the 59th percentile around the basket and was a potent shooter off the dribble and the catch, connecting on 35.6 percent of his pull-up 3s and 39.4 percent of his spot-up 3s. Since then, there’s been a precipitous decline in the finishing, as well as the disconnect between the on- and off-ball shooting. He ranked in the 10th percentile at the rim in 2018-19 and 21st percentile last year. He nailed 27.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s and 33.3 percent of his pull-ups last season. A year prior, he netted 40.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, but only 29.7 percent off the bounce.

Finding a way to harmonize those marks beyond the arc is paramount for his scoring equity because the finishing regression is a byproduct of his quadriceps injury, manifesting in both approach and physical capabilities. Oladipo is highly contact-averse, contorting to avoid rim protection or shielding his body to attempt finishes from daring angles. He’s lost some vertical explosion to extend over guys at the basket for scores. He no longer has the blend of speed and power at the rim to adjust when necessary.

All of this means he rarely manufactures easy looks at the basket. Everything is finesse-based or low-value propositions. What once was a marriage of force and finesse has primarily been reduced to finesse. There are no longer curve-balls and fastballs. Oladipo only has the curve-ball in his arsenal and it makes life much tougher.

What changed for Victor Oladipo when he was injured?

A clear divide in his finishing can be traced back to Nov. 17, 2018, his 16th game in 2018-19, and Dec. 12, 2018, his 17th game of the season (thank you, Tony East, for this observation). During that time away, he was sidelined with right knee soreness, the same leg on which he’d soon suffer a ruptured quad. That interlude transformed his finishing for the worse. Before the first injury, he shot 66.2 percent in the restricted area with Indiana; since then, he’s down to 48.6 percent.

The first four clips happened before Nov. 17, 2018, the next three occur afterward. Note the diminished explosion, both vertically and horizontally, particularly the latter, and how unwilling he is to absorb contact head-on, if at all:

I fear this is the mentality we will see for the remainder of his career unless he rekindles his vertical explosiveness and power as a leaper. The aversion to contact is derived from an inability to finish through or over players post-injury. These developments are linked, and a sizable portion seems unlikely to suddenly improve two years later. If it does, I’d envision the physically reluctant disposition to dissipate as well, enabling him to be an effective interior scorer again.

Part of the problem is tied to his abnormally poor ball control. Since returning from injury 10.5 months ago, he’s failed to retain the same level of precision and dexterity with his handle. What once was an asset for his slashing prowess has become a major hindrance, restricting him as a driver, space-creator and finisher. He loses the ball quite frequently, sometimes without pressure from the defense. He cannot excel as a driver and finisher at the moment, largely because of this flaw. The frequency with which the ball slips from his grasp seems almost inconceivable.

Perhaps he simply needs more time and on-court experience for his handle to re-emerge as the weapon it formerly was, which is certainly feasible. But for now, his creation ceiling is capped because of poor ball control and finishing. He utilized his pull-up jumper in 2017-18 to prime his slashing, but the slashing is nowhere near as lethal these days, and it leads to a lot of messy, unproductive possessions.

During the playoffs, Oladipo was deployed more often as an off-movement shooter and it worked well (8-of-20 on catch-and-shoot 3s). His quickness allowed him to spring free of defenders, he took tight angles around screens and his footwork was efficient. The results of a small sample, while mostly immaterial, reinforce the potential utility. The process and comfort exhibited are more valuable, suggesting a level of diversified usage once the 2020-21 regular season rolls around. It ensures he could maintain a substantial offensive load that helps his team without all of his touches occurring on the ball, where he’s currently ill-suited to assume such a big burden.

Between this and the intermittent relocation instincts he’s shown, there’s definitely a tenable off-ball role for him, especially if his catch-and-shoot 3 proficiency stabilizes on higher volume (38.4 percent on 344 regular-season attempts with the Pacers, 2.6 per game).

Oladipo did not approximate top-15 value as a player in 2017-18 because he’s an elite offensive engine. He ascended to that stratum through two-way stardom, asserting himself as a premier defensive guard, blowing up plays off the ball with instincts and quick hands, and stymieing assignments using lateral mobility, physicality and anticipation. In his 19 regular-season games last season, he was searching to reach that level again. His instincts and timing as an off-ball chaos agent were not there, illuminated by a steal rate trimmed nearly in half (3.2 percent pre-injury, 1.7 percent post-injury).

For the most part, he was a sound team defender, executing rotations, tagging rollers and closing out to shooters. But he also struggled to consistently decelerate and control his movements, similar to the issue he endured as a driver before bubble play. Whether it be an errant closeout or confusion as to where to go after a rotation, he was occasionally prone to hectic possessions. Certain assignments easily discarded him on the ball, while he continued to hound lesser-caliber guys, too.

Luck-Adjusted DRAPM graded him as roughly a neutral defender (plus-0.16, 166th overall) — relatively speaking, good for a guard — whereas he’d been an elite defender in the two previous seasons, finishing top 15 in LA-DRAPM both years. The playmaking just wasn’t there, which could be a lack of rhythm and familiarity, unsure how to nail down the timing, positioning and awareness for steals after a year away. He authored some standout clips, but we didn’t bear witness to the mastery of 2017-18 and 2018-19 (first four clips are from those years, next three from last season):

If it seems like citing rhythm as reasoning for some of Oladipo’s crucial post-injury regression is a cop-out, it’s because that truly could be a headlining part of the complication. He was sidelined for over a year and only played 651 minutes last season. He underwent a leap with his start-stop savvy in the bubble, and it’s entirely justified to argue he may return this season as a better dribbler and playmaking defender.

The finishing concerns seem as though they could be something he has to work around moving forward if he doesn’t regain his vertical explosion, though. His standstill burst, while highly functional, has lost a gear, too. However, if he is a credible off-ball shooter on enhanced reps (he should be) and defers to Domantas Sabonis as the primary offensive conductor — or even splitting duties (bigger question) — he can serve as a very good player. He still creates consistent advantages off the bounce, is a capable passer and good on- and off-ball defender.

Expecting him to ever repeat his 2017-18 showing is unwise. But Victor Oladipo can certainly help the Pacers this season, or any trade suitors, as a secondary handler and plus guard defender, especially if the instincts and timing re-enter the fold. He’s versatile offensively and adept defensively. That is not the sort of player who should be a forgotten man.