What are realistic expectations for Josh Heupel in Year 1 with Tennessee?

Josh Heupel needs to set the right tone in his first year leading the Tennessee football team.

After yet another tumultuous offseason for the Tennessee football program, the Vols’ new head coach Josh Heupel has an immense amount of work ahead of him to get team back to something respectable.

Heupel was hired by his former UCF boss Danny White, who left Orlando to be the new Tennessee athletic director. Sanctions are coming after former head coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired with cause for rampant recruiting violations. Former athletic director and Tennessee coaching legend Phillip Fulmer was essentially forced to retire. What are reasonable expectations for Heupel in 2021?

Tennessee needs to push for a .500 record in Josh Heupel’s first year in charge

Assuming Tennessee will not be eligible to play in a holiday season bowl game, we must assess what games are winnable and which ones are not for the 2021 Vols. Tennessee is not beating its three biggest SEC rivals under any circumstances in Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols would be lucky to beat Kentucky in Lexington, Missouri in Columbia and Ole Miss at home in Knoxville.

So we are looking at no better than 3-5 in SEC play with home wins vs. South Carolina and Vanderbilt, as well as maybe one between Kentucky, Missouri and Ole Miss. The question now is how many wins can the Vols get in the non-conference. They draw Bowling Green, Pittsburgh, South Alabama and Tennessee Tech at home. The Pitt game will be the hardest of the four.

In an absolute best-case scenario, Tennessee can go 7-5 (3-5). Conversely, the worst it could be is 3-9 (1-7) with their only SEC win being over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, two division rivals who will be trotting new head coaches in Shane Beamer and Clark Lea, respectively. Therefore, Heupel would be in good shape if he wins somewhere around five, maybe six games in year one at UT.

Tennessee must assert its divisional dominance over South Carolina and Vanderbilt in year one.

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