Bracketology: Will Michigan State basketball make the NCAA Tournament?
Despite a 6-0 start that saw Michigan State basketball rated as high as no. 4 in the polls, there’s a good chance the Spartans miss the NCAA Tournament.
The Michigan State Spartans are a regular in the NCAA Tournament and the 2020-21 campaign looked like it would be no different. A hot start to the year that included a 6-0 run in non-conference play had the Spartans ranked as high as no. 4 in the polls, but everything has fallen apart for Michigan State in Big Ten play.
A 3-7 start to Big Ten play has Michigan State entering the week nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win over Duke in the Champions Classic has lost a lot of luster thanks to the struggles of the Blue Devils while a bad loss to Northwestern is an anchor on the Spartans’ resume.
Michigan State basketball needs to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament
The NET rankings, the NCAA’s new metric that has essentially replaced the RPI for the selection committee, has Michigan State rated 91st. That kind of figure almost never gets rewarded with an at-large bid unless there are extenuating circumstances, an argument that gets tossed out the window given how much COVID-19 is impacting teams around the nation.
The Spartans have had plenty of Quadrant I games but haven’t done much with them, going 2-6 with the seventh loss coming in a Quadrant II matchup. A COVID pause has also delayed several key games for Michigan State, which has seen matchups with Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa get postponed for later in the season.
The good news for Tom Izzo’s team is that there are still plenty of quality wins available on Michigan State’s schedule thanks to the deep Big Ten. Matchups with Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan offer plenty of opportunities for the Spartans to stack a pile of Quad I wins together ahead of the Big Ten Tournament.
All eight of Michigan State’s remaining games are against teams on the bubble or better, so a 5-3 run plus a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament could be enough to push the Spartans over the top. The problem is that Izzo needs his team to play significantly better basketball to avoid missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1997.
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