THE PLAYERS Championship 2021: 5 bold predictions for TPC Sawgrass

THE PLAYERS Championship returns to TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and we have bold predictions for Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, winner picks and more.

While there is excitement in every PGA Tour tournament, THE PLAYERS Championship often represents the beginning of the heart of the season. In the following months, all four major championships are played and, with the biggest purse of the year on the line, the field is always tremendous at TPC Sawgrass. THE PLAYERS Championship in 2021 is no exception.

This one feels a bit special, though, as last year’s tournament was abruptly halted after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a three-month shutdown on the tour. Golf has been back in full force since. And now we’re back at Sawgrass with 49 of the top 50 players in the world taking to the course.

When you think about THE PLAYERS Championship, the 17th hole and the island green are the iconic image. But TPC Sawgrass offers much more than that, a second-shot golf course where ball-striking and accuracy are paramount. It’s one of the best tests of the season and, though the moniker is a bit silly, it does feel in some ways like the fifth major.

So with a loaded field, plenty of storylines — especially coming off bombing Bryson DeChambeau’s win, Rory McIlroy as the defending champion and with Jordan Spieth’s resurgence — to follow, let’s dive into the action ready to unfold at TPC Sawgrass with five bold predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship in 2021. (Note: All odds mentioned are courtesy of GolfBet on The Action Network.)

Bold predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship 2021

5. Will Zalatoris cracks the top 10 in his debut

There are a number of golfers, most notably Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, officially making their PLAYERS debuts this week but they actually played one round last year. In the case of Will Zalatoris, this is his first time at TPC Sawgrass. That traditionally doesn’t bode well for newcomers and how they’ll finish but the newest crop of young blood is of a different breed.

While I don’t like Zalatoris’ chances to win, he’s going to make a strong debut in a big way. He’s not the most accurate driver but he’s a long hitter who is lethal with his irons, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season. His iron game will buoy him and his youthful exuberance will help him get into the top 10.

4. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm finish outside the top 20

In terms of pure talent, you’d be hard-pressed to find enough golfers to count on one hand who are better than Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. With their skills, they can fall out of bed and make a top 10 or top five. And McIlroy is the defending champion at THE PLAYERS Championship, winning back in 2019. Subsequently, they are the third and fourth in terms of outright odds at +1200 for McIlroy and +1400 for Rahm.

All that being said, this week doesn’t suit them that well. Rahm has shot 76 or worse in at least one round every time he’s played at TPC Sawgrass and his equipment change has lowered his floor and ceiling of late. Moreover, McIlroy’s iron game has been awful, ranking 173rd in Strokes Gained: Approach. As such, I’m fading both players this week and saying they finish outside the top 20.

3. Jordan Spieth notches another top 5 finish

After looking lost for roughly the past two years (if not longer), Jordan Spieth has resurfaced looking like one of the best players in the world. If nothing else, there are few things as entertaining as watching the rollercoaster he takes fans on. But amid that, he has three top-five finishes in his last four starts. The other was a T15 at The Genesis.

Spieth’s history at THE PLAYERS Championship is dubious as he’s never cracked the top 40. With accuracy off the tee being somewhat key, his sporadic driving is a problem. But they said that at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week and he was in contention to win for much of it. He’s figuring his new form out, his irons are locked in and the magic is brewing. Even without the course history, Spieth continues the buzz with a monster top-five finish.

2. Bryson DeChambeau misses the cut

Speaking of entertainment, no one in the golfing world can go a minute without bringing up Bryson DeChambeau. His bulking up and monster drives have everyone intoxicated on what he’s doing, especially after winning the U.S. Open last year and last week at the API as well. DeChambeau playing at his top form is near unbeatable and he has advantages with his length and idiosyncratic approach that are undeniable.

Despite all of this, though, DeChambeau has not been incredibly consistent. Moreover, we’ve seen the one thing that holds his driving back (other than accuracy) be that his irons and wedges aren’t always locked in. That can’t happen at TPC Sawgrass if you want to have success. And off the win, I think he crashes to earth and misses the cut at THE PLAYERS.

1. Viktor Hovland wins his debut at THE PLAYERS Championship

If you thought going in on first-timer Zalatoris for a top-10 was bold, here’s some Viktor Hovland action for your pleasure. He had four top-fives (including a win and two T2 finishes) in his previous five starts to the API and was in the top five after two rounds last week before ejecting on the weekend. But his game is set up to thrive at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Hovland’s two biggest strengths are off the tee and approach as he ranks fifth and 35th in those categories, respectively, for Strokes Gained in 2021. Even better, he’s improved his short game dramatically, which was by far his biggest weakness in 2019 and 2020.

Both he and Morikawa are tailormade to thrive at TPC Sawgrass and what the course asks for. He’s long enough to consistently give himself mid and short irons into greens, which is when he’s at his best. His aggression will push him ahead of his young peer to get the win, even if his +1800 odds don’t make him the boldest of predictions to win. Then again, a first-timer has only won THE PLAYERS twice, so it would be a historic run to the top.