Panthers bet on Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson extension and more
The Carolina Panthers traded three draft picks for Sam Darold and picked up his fifth-year option, but did they really surrender much in the long term?
Some things aren’t what they appear. Consider the Sam Darnold trade to be a magic trick.
Last week, the Carolina Panthers sent a 2021 sixth-round pick along with second and fourth-round choices in ’22 to the New York Jets for quarterback Sam Darnold. They immediately picked up his fifth-year option as well, which pays Darnold $19 million while giving Carolina two years of team control.
Initially, it appears the Panthers bet on Darnold’s untapped talent and gave up three picks and $19 million worth of future cap space to do it. All for a quarterback who was unwanted in New York after three dismal seasons.
However, the reality is much different.
Darnold, 23, will replace Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater, who remains under contract for two years and $49 million (but really next season at $22.9 million and $5 million dead cap in ’22), is an asset. He’ll be traded and could certainly bring back a fourth-round pick.
Also, the Panthers still have seven choices this year and can easily recoup their sixth-round pick by trading back. For example, Carolina could move back five spots with the Los Angeles Chargers in the third round (from No. 113 to 118) and pick up a sixth, based off the famed draft trade value chart.
Suddenly, Darnold costs only a second-round pick and the financial investment for two years is less than Bridgewater’s 2021 cap hit. Finally, the fifth-year option is only guaranteed for injury. Translation? Provided he’s healthy enough to pass a physical at the season’s end, the Panthers can still release Darnold before the first day of the league year without incurring a cent of dead money.
How expensive does the deal look for Carolina now?
For the Jets, it remains a solid return. New York general manager Joe Douglas didn’t draft Darnold and therefore has no shame in admitting he’s a bust or Gang Green. The Jets got a top-100 pick plus two other choices. Speaking to a pair of general managers when the season ended, they both believed Darnold was worth approximately a third-round pick. Douglas got good value.
And yet for the Panthers, this is essentially buying a lottery ticket. If Darnold can revive his career under head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, phenomenal. Carolina will have a 23-year-old franchise quarterback under team control for the next four years when factoring in the leverage of franchise tags.
If Darnold isn’t buoyed by better coaching and the weapons of running back Christian McCaffrey and receivers D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, the Panthers can cut bait after one season and draft a quarterback to replace him.
Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer took his first significant swing by acquiring Darnold, but it was hardly an enormous gamble. It’s a calculated risk and a smart one because the potential lost capital is minuscule compared to the upside Darnold may possess at such a young age.
In magic, the trick is always performed in front of your face. It’s simply a matter of illusion, similar to the Panthers’ cost outlay in this deal.
Power rankings
Top 10 touchdown celebration artists of all-time
1. Homer Jones, WR, New York Giants (first man to spike the ball)
2. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco 49ers
4. Ickey Woods, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Billy “White Shoes” Johnson, KR, Houston Oilers
6. Deion Sanders, CB, Atlanta Falcons/Dallas Cowboys
7. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers
8. Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
9. The Fun Bunch, Washington Football Team
10. Joe Horn, WR, New Orleans Saints
Quotable
"“Now, Justin and Corey can team up to be one of those special tandems in the league. I think the big thing with Corey is that we feel like he is a difference-maker. There are a lot of centers that are good players, but who is a difference-maker? We feel like Corey is a difference-maker in more ways than one — certainly with his physical skills, but then all of the intangible stuff, too.”"
– Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley on the tandem of center Corey Lindsley and quarterback Justin Herbert
The Chargers quietly put together a very nice offseason, providing Herbert with reinforcements upfront. After employing arguably the worst offensive line in football last year, Los Angeles improved inside with guard Matt Feiler and the big-time addition of Linsley, an All-Pro center with the Green Bay Packers a year ago.
It might not be splashy, but add a left tackle in the draft, and the Chargers have overhauled their weakest unit from 2020.
Podcast
Random stat
The Detroit Lions have won a single playoff game since 1957.
Since then, there have been 29 teams who have at least two victories in the same postseason. The only ones who haven’t? The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans.
Info learned this week
1. Some NFL teams planning on full stadiums in 2021
The trend, and tide, is turning. How much will have changed by September, though?
According to a few different NFL teams, it’s apparently going to be enough for full venues come autumn. The Las Vegas Raiders, after housing zero fans in their inaugural season at Allegiant Stadium, are potentially looking at packing their building. The New England Patriots also sound likely to have similar plans.
Whether this is a good idea or not remains to be determined. As we’ve all learned, five months in this pandemic is an eternity and much can change, from variants to vaccinations. The country could be in tremendous shape — relatively speaking — by then or in the midst of another uptick in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, God forbid.
Still, it’s refreshing to believe we could have stadiums jam-packed with fans in full throat … if it can be done safely.
2. Kyle Pitts could set historic benchmark for tight ends
It’s universally believed Pitts will be drafted in the top six overall picks in the NFL Draft. If it happens, he’s joining an elite company. If Pitts is taken in the first five choices, he’s damn near historic. Fourth? He is historic.
Since the AFL and NFL formed a common draft in 1967, only one tight end has ever been a top-five choice; Riley Odoms (No. 5 overall) to the Denver Broncos in 1972. Odoms enjoyed a fine career, notching four Pro Bowls and two First-Team All-Pro distinctions in his 12-year stint.
Furthermore, since 1985, only five tight ends have been top-10 picks, including Kyle Brady (1995), Ricky Dudley (1996), Kellen Winslow Jr. (2004), Vernon Davis (2006) and Eric Ebron (2015). Of those names, Winslow and Davis went highest, each at No. 6 overall.
While we know three quarterbacks will be the first off the board, the Falcons could be Pitts’ landing spot at No. 4. If they trade down, the Bengals or Miami Dolphins make sense as well. It’s hard to see the University of Florida product getting past Miami at sixth considering its need for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to develop in 2021.
In a year loaded with pass-catchers, Pitts stands above the rest.
3. Marquee remaining free agents might wait until summer
Free agents still on the market? They might as well see how training camp goes.
While most of the available big names have been signed, there are still a few on the defensive side. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston and Jadeveon Clowney are out there, while cornerback Richard Sherman is looking for his next team as well. While all would have been good bets to sign fairly quickly, each has seen their market stagnate.
Sherman has already openly talked about waiting until after the draft to join his third team.
At this juncture, there’s no reason to sign quickly. Nobody left to be signed is getting more than a one-year deal for a small amount. It’s going to be a prove-it year for all the remaining vets, even for guys with major resumes to present at any meeting.
For guys like the aforementioned quartet, they’ll eventually get jobs. However, signing come summertime might mean filling an unexpected void for a team after an expected starter goes down with an injury. At least then, while the injury is unfortunate, the player has some leverage compared to the current situation.
The waiting game continues, and might for quite some time.
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster relayed Andy Reid’s pitch to him in free agency
Want a good laugh? JuJu Smith-Schuster has you covered.
The Pittsburgh Steelers receiver hit free agency in March for the first time and had a trio of offers including one from the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite it reportedly being worth more via incentives, Smith-Schuster turned it down to return to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal.
Last week, he joined The Michael Irvin Podcast and broke down how the courting process went. Turns out, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was texting pictures of the Lombardi Trophy to the former USC star. While Smith-Schuster didn’t end up signing with the two-time AFC champs, it’s one of the better-recruiting stories we’ve heard in a while.
Smith-Schuster, 24, is likely banking on being the top target in Pittsburgh whereas he would have checked in third with the Chiefs behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. It’s a risky play, because even as the third option in Kansas City, he would have been a good bet for 1,000 yards and a litany of touchdowns. With the Steelers, Smith-Schuster is hoping Ben Roethlisberger has a good year left in what appeared to be a water-logged right arm last season.
Regardless, Reid sent Smith-Schuster the Lombardi. The receiver decided he could stay in Pittsburgh and nab one.
5. Eddie George latest NFL star to coach at HBCU
Eddie George was beloved in Tennessee during his playing days. Now, the former Titans star running back is returning to The Volunteer State for a head-coaching gig with Tennessee State.
George, 47, is getting his first crack as a head coach after an eight-year playing career with saw four Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl appearance with the Titans, before retiring with Dallas in 2003. Since retirement, George became an actor but now returns to the gridiron to head up the Tigers, who haven’t been to a bowl game since 1972.
George becomes the second former NFL star to become head coach at a historically Black college in recent months, with Hall of Fame cornerback Deion Sanders earning the gig in 2020. While Sanders and George have never spent time as assistants or head coaches at the college or pro level, both bring gravitas and attention to universities and football programs which have forever been under-appreciated.
Tennessee State has produced significant talent over the years including defensive ends Richard Dent and Claude Humphrey, both enshrined in Canton. Jackson State is most-famous for a quartet of Hall of Famers including running back Walter Payton, offensive tackle Jackie Slater, cornerback Lem Barney and linebacker Robert Brazile.
It’ll be fun to watch Sanders and George get after it in the coming years.
Two cents
Give me the throwbacks. All of them.
In recent years, the NFL has been limited on its wardrobe choices because of a one-helmet rule designed for safety. Now, assuming the league believes safety won’t be compromised, it’s possible the rule is abolished, meaning the potential for different colors on the crown.
As a resident historical uniform snob, we’ve forgotten some of the NFL’s classic looks with teams unable to wear different helmets.
We need to see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wearing their Creamiscles, and the Atlanta Falcons going with their expansion look. Someone should bring us the Los Angeles Rams in their ’99 era blue and gold duds, and my goodness, the Seattle Seahawks in silver. How about the New York Jets rocking their ’80s look, or the Denver Broncos going with their Orange Crush classics? The list goes on.
For the NFL’s 75th anniversary in 1994, the league went throwback crazy, even giving us a few uniforms that never existed in the first place. It was different, it was fun and it provides both nostalgia and a welcome change-up to the everyday apparel.
It’s time. Provided there’s no issue with helmet safety, all throwbacks must be put on the table.
Inside the league
Look for runs in the NFL Draft. Many of them.
Every year is different with incoming rookie classes varying in strength and depth. Talking to scouts, agents and general managers around the league, the general belief is four positions are strongest and will be featured early and often through the top 100 picks:
Quarterback, receiver, offensive line and corner.
It would be surprising if these four positional groups don’t comprise at least 20 of the first-round choices we see come April 29.
Five quarterbacks are a lay-up, and at least three receivers will be chosen in Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, and LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase. At corner, Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn are absolutes. Caleb Farley would have been, but injury concerns might bump him out. Asante Samuel Jr. is fast-rising, while Northwestern’s Greg Newsome is also a solid bet.
Many of the offensive linemen have measured as having short arms, but as we wrote about last week, some teams are essentially disregarding those figures. It’s almost inconceivable that Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater, Christian Darrisaw, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Teven Jenkins don’t go in the top 32 picks. After them, Liam Eichenberg, Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield and Sam Cosmi could all join their ranks.
Once one domino falls at each position, rival general managers won’t want to miss out, and thus the run. There will be plenty.
History lesson
The Minnesota Vikings almost forced out Bill Walsh.
After going 8-7 in the strike-shortened ’87 season, the Vikings upset the Saints before visiting the San Francisco 49ers, the overwhelming favorite to win their third Super Bowl of the decade.
Shockingly, the 13-2 Niners were blown out by Minnesota in what many recall as the Anthony Carter game. Carter, a former USFL receiver, caught 10 passes for 227 yards in the 36-24 win. The affair was so lopsided that midway through the third quarter, 49ers future Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana was benched for Steve Young. It didn’t help.
For many days afterward, team owner Eddie Debartolo Jr. was ready to fire Walsh before settling on taking away his role as team president. Meanwhile, Walsh seriously contemplated resigning. In his book, The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty, David Harris wrote for Walsh, it was the toughest loss of his storied career, plunging him into a funk for months.
Luckily for the 49ers, Walsh stayed one more year. San Francisco slogged through a 10-6 season but eventually won the NFC West, got their revenge on the Vikings in the Divisional round and then won Super Bowl XXIII, with Montana finding John Taylor in the end zone to win it all with 34 seconds remaining.
Parting shot
While quarterbacks are moving around like musical chairs, there’s much business ahead.
We’ve seen the trades of Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold this offseason. Soon, we’ll likely have the deals for Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater as well. In 17 days, five rookie quarterbacks will be scooped up quickly in the NFL Draft, filling myriad vacancies.
However, there’s still the matter of extensions. Dak Prescott got his from Dallas. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are still waiting for theirs.
Allen will almost certainly be paid in the coming months, somewhere north of $40 million per year. The Second-Team All-Pro was phenomenal for the Buffalo Bills last year, throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns while leading his team to the AFC Championship Game.
At only 24 years old, it’s impossible to believe he won’t eclipse the $40 million annual value and $126 million guaranteed given to Prescott. The Cowboys’ signal-caller is three years old, has one fewer playoff win and is coming off a serious injury. He’s also never been an All-Pro.
Jackson, as we’ve written about before in this space, is a more complex situation.
If the Baltimore Ravens extend him this summer, he’ll also get more than $40 million/year. It would be malpractice to sign for less. After all, he’s also 24, has an unanimous MVP to his name, two division titles and a playoff victory. Unlike Prescott and Allen, he’s also never missed a game.
However, Jackson has thrown for 5,884 yards over the past two seasons. In a league increasingly about the passing game, Baltimore’s lack of one could prove a significant impediment to paying Jackson. Additionally, the Ravens have bogged down in the postseason, going 1-3 in Jackson’s four starts.
To be clear, smart money says Jackson gets paid and the Ravens go forth with the intent of drafting receivers to surround him. It’s just not a given as it appears to be with Allen.
The NFL Draft will soon be here and the quarterback intrigue will dissipate nationally, but there are still two looming negotiations to watch.