Corbin Burnes is setting an incredible pace so far this season

Two seasons after one of the worst seasons a pitcher has ever had, Corbin Burnes might be the best in baseball this year.

If you’re looking for an early National League Cy Young Award favorite, look no further than a long-haired, scruffy-bearded right-hander who plies his trade for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Corbin Burnes continued his incredible start to the 2021 season on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs, striking out 10 in six shutout innings while giving up only two hits and no walks. In 18.1 innings this season, Burnes has given up just one earned run (0.49 ERA) and has struck out 30 without walking a batter.

Burnes is the first player in MLB history to reach 30 strikeouts with no walks through his first three starts of a season. Among pitchers who went at least six innings per start, only Adam Wainwright (35 in 2013) and Noah Syndergaard (31 in 2017) have ever struck out that many batters before issuing their first walk, and they both took four starts to do it.

The Brewers broadcast claimed such a feat was achieved once in 1906, but our research doesn’t reflect such an event. Either way, it’s an incredibly impressive accomplishment, and a rare on at that.

Corbin Burnes cementing himself as early NL Cy Young favorite

Burnes surrendered two hits to the Cubs before leaving with a 7-0 lead. He even helped out his own cause with a two-run single in the sixth inning, the first RBIs of his big league career. Those two hits—an extra-base hit by Jason Heyward and a single by Eric Sogard—actually doubled the number he had given up this season. In his first start, on April 3 against Minnesota, Burnes took a no-hitter into the seventh before giving up a home run to Byron Buxton, the only hit he gave up in that game and the only run charged against him this season.

He also gave up only one hit against the Cardinals in his second start, a leadoff triple by Tommy Edman. No pitcher had begun a season with only four hits allowed through his first three starts before Burnes; only four others—Justin Verlander in 2019, Damian Moss in 2002, Johnny Vander Meer in 1938 (part of his consecutive no-hitters), and Rube Marquard in 1911—ever had a stretch like that at any point in the season (min. six innings per start).

Burnes’ ascent to being the best pitcher in baseball wasn’t without its stumbles. Two years ago, Burnes had the worst season of any pitcher in Brewers history, with an 8.82 ERA in 49 innings. Only 15 other pitchers since 1901 had a worse ERA over that many innings, a list that includes such non-legendary names such as Reggie Grabowski and Frank Gabler (but also Hall of Famer Roy Halladay).

In 2019, Burnes was primarily a fastball-slider style of pitcher. He threw a four-seam fastball nearly 53 percent of the time. But there was a problem: opposing batters teed off on the pitch. They hit .425 off it with 13 home runs.

So he had to reinvent himself, relying more on his cutter and sinker. He threw his cutter less than one percent of his pitches two years ago, but that’s increased to nearly 50 percent this season. He throws the pitch an average of 96 mph, the fastest cutter in the Majors by three mph. Against the Cubs on Wednesday, he hit 98 mph with both his cutter and sinker. The four-seam fastball that abandoned him in 2019 is now mostly gone from his repertoire; Burnes has thrown it only twice this season.

The changes have worked. He’s striking out 14.9 batters per nine innings this season and 48.4 percent of all batters he’s faced; both would be the highest of any starting pitcher in history. Opponents are hitting just .065 against him this season, which would be the lowest ever by nearly 100 points.

It’s an incredible pace, probably an unsustainable one. But Burnes, thanks to his two pitches that he didn’t have earlier in his career, has become, more than any other pitcher in the league, unhittable and untouchable.