Eastern Conference upset special: It’s definitely the Miami Heat, right?

Which bottom-four playoff team in the East has the best chance of making a Cinderella conference finals run?

While change can be scary, the new play-in format added a layer of wonderful havoc to the postseason. The NBA spiced up its product in a smart way, allowing more teams to get a shot at making the field without actually expanding that field and watering it down.

Installing a new system will always be met with apprehension, like when I changed my fantasy football league from snake draft to auction and the incendiary chain reaction of complaints, questions, stupid questions and arguments it set off. Now, everyone loves it and I think most NBA fans will end up feeling that way about the play-ins — even if some players don’t.

The somewhat rushed 72-game season made this year’s turnout ripe for an upset. So in picking the most likely underdog to make a run — defined here as winning two rounds and busting into the conference finals — let’s break down each team’s chances:

No. 8 seed Washington Wizards: 6.7 percent

Since April 12, the Wizards boasted the second-highest winning percentage in the league and finished their final 20 games on a 15-5 heater. With a pair of superstars in Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook at the helm, they have a chance to take anyone down. Unfortunately, a date with a vastly superior Philadelphia squad means those two will have to go infrared over the course of a seven-game series because Washington’s supporting cast is, um, not great. It’ll be a big load to carry, especially for the not-totally-healthy Beal.

Washington brings more excitement to the table and I would have given Indiana a -0.5 percent chance of winning two rounds. If you honestly believed in the Pacers advancing, then you’re either a resident of the Indianapolis metro area or an immediate relative of Doug McDermott.

No. 7 seed Boston Celtics: 10.1 percent

The Celtics majorly disappointed this season and lack any discernible identity. They fell into the play-in scenario instead of being an Eastern Conference pacesetter most expected. Losing Jaylen Brown for the year and Marcus Smart for long stretches, injuries damaged this team perhaps more than anyone else.

Their current Big-3 of Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Smart is actually a decent facsimile of their first-round opponent. While Tatum can drop 50 points on any given night, they’ll need a lot of juice from their secondary players to beat Brooklyn in Kyrie Irving’s revenge series and whoever of Milwaukee/Miami they’d hypothetically play in the semi-finals. Oh, and the Celtics went 0-3 against the Nets this year. I’m no doctor, but that’s not good.

No. 6 seed Miami Heat: 38.4 percent

Miami started off the season a miserable 7-14 but ended on a strong 16-8 note since April 1. While they fell short of lofty expectations and shuffled pieces around, they have the same formula in place from 2020’s Finals run.

Last year’s runner-up has all the components to go deep again and make noise in the East:

Smart, multiple championship-winning coach: check

Several stars to lean on: check

Been-there-before: check

Elite jerseys: big check

They meet up with a Milwaukee Bucks team they knocked out of the postseason last year in a matchup people are excited for. Milwaukee improved their talent in the offseason, but Miami has the pieces to throw at them. In advance of the action, Miami fired off a warning shot across the interwebs. Nobody wants to go to battle with this team. When in doubt, trust the Heat.

No. 5 seed Atlanta Hawks: 17.9 percent

After a surprise season, Atlanta has a decent shot to keep the good times rolling into June. Did the Hawks objectively land the easiest first-round draw (in another matchup everyone pined for) with the also-surprise Knicks? First of all, yes. Secondly, how dare you.

Even if they can make it past the People’s MVP and the young Knickerbockers, the 76ers (presumably) would be waiting for them in Round 2. Even though the Hawks are as hot as they come, a team with hardly any playoff experience knocking off two legit contenders seems like a tall task.