Texas football 2022 record prediction with Quinn Ewers at QB

The Texas football team landed five-star quarterback Quinn Ewers with the hopes he can change the program’s fortunes under head coach Steve Sarkisian upon arrival in Austin.

Anything short of achieving bowl eligibility would be an unmitigated disaster for Steve Sarkisian in his second season leading the Texas football program, especially after landing five-star quarterback Quinn Ewers in the transfer portal.

Ewers reclassified out of high school to enroll a full year early at Ohio State. Two handoffs and a bunch of NIL money later, Ewers has returned to The Lone Star State. Frankly, the most talented quarterback in the state of Texas each in class should commit to the Longhorns annually. Coaching turmoil eventually led to Ewers leaving the state, but his return to Texas should be huge for them.

Here is Texas’ schedule for the 2022 college football regular season. How much of an impact could Ewers have if he wins the starting job in his first year in Austin? What could the Longhorns’ record be in his first year playing for Sarkisian?

Texas football 2022 regular-season schedule

• Sept. 3: vs. ULM Warhawks
• Sept. 10: vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
• Sept. 17: vs. UTSA Roadrunners
• Sept. 24: at Texas Tech Red Raiders (Lubbock, TX)
• Oct. 1: vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
• Oct. 8: vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas, TX)
• Oct. 15: vs. Iowa State Cyclones
• Oct. 22: at Oklahoma State Cowboys (Stillwater, OK)
• Oct. 29: Bye
• Nov. 5: at Kansas State Wildcats (Manhattan, KS)
• Nov. 12: vs. TCU Horned Frogs
• Nov. 19: at Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence, KS)
• Nov. 26: vs. Baylor Bears

Simply put, Texas is winning no more than two games in the non-conference. Under no circumstances will Sarkisian be able to beat his mentor Nick Saban’s juggernaut Alabama Crimson Tide in 2022. Sure, Texas will get a Week 1 victory over ULM, but UTSA is no walk in the park. The Roadrunners lost one game last year and were victorious in the Conference USA Championship.

Assuming Ewers is the difference-maker in Week 2’s battle at home vs. UTSA, Texas should go 2-1 in the non-conference with him at quarterback. The question remains how many games can be won in Big 12 play. Are the Longhorns even guaranteed to get to 6-6 next season? Assuming a bad home loss to Alabama, that would require Texas going at minimum 4-5 in conference play.

Let’s break this down a bit by putting their nine conference games equally in three separate buckets: Games they are not going to win, games they should win and games they could win. If Texas drops three conference games, let’s assume those being vs. Iowa State, at Oklahoma State and vs. Baylor. Again, a lot can change year over year, but those three programs are very strong.

As far as three games Texas should win in Big 12 play, let’s say at Texas Tech, vs. TCU and at Kansas. The Red Raiders and the Horned Frogs have new head coaches. While Texas lost at home to Kansas embarrassingly last year, this is a game the Longhorns sadly have to circle for 2022. As for the other three games (West Virginia, Oklahoma and at Kansas State), they can go either way.

Of those three, at Kansas State is the toughest because Manhattan is a challenging place to play and Chris Klieman is an excellent head coach. The West Virginia date should serve as this year’s litmus test. If Texas beats the Mountaineers, then the Longhorns should be going bowling. As for Red River, this is a massive rivalry game and Oklahoma has a first-time head coach this season.

So what will Texas record inevitably be for 2022? The floor for this team is probably 5-7 and the ceiling could be as high as 8-4. Split the difference and Texas’ over/under for win totals could come in at 6.5. Assuming Ewers is everything everybody thought he would be and then some coming out of high school, let’s take the over here and say Texas will get to 7-5 in his first year at Austin.

If Texas overachieves and gets to 8-4, the Longhorns will have a shot to finish the season ranked.

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