Why C.J. Stroud just scratched the surface in his freshman season at Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud shocked the country in his debut season. His sophomore campaign has room for another massive explosion.

The 2021 college football season started with more uncertainty than usual after most of the nation’s established quarterbacks entered the NFL. Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson attempted to reload after playoff runs with their first-round quarterbacks. Alabama produced 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, and Ohio State produced C.J. Stroud, who finished fourth in the race.

The Buckeyes’ quarterback race was one of the most interesting preseason storylines across the nation due to the young talent involved. Head coach Ryan Day assembled an impressive array of top talent, including two high 4-star recruits and two 5-stars. The headlining talent was No. 1 overall recruit Quinn Ewers arriving on campus just before the season.

Whoever won the job was in a curious situation. On one hand, the Buckeyes weren’t expected to be as dominant as the year prior after losing Justin Fields and other top talents. But it was clear the team would still have impactful talent with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at receiver.

C.J. Stroud is just scratching the surface with how great he can be for Ohio State

The opening schedule for the Buckeyes was also a difficult test. Kicking off at Minnesota and then at home against Oregon would put immediate pressure on a new starter. While pressure can forge diamonds, an inexperienced freshman or sophomore quarterback will very likely struggle early on.

That’s exactly what happened to Stroud shortly after earning the starting job. His raw stat line against Minnesota, Oregon, and Tulsa was impressive enough considering the competition and his inexperience. He completed 63 of 101 attempts (62 percent) for 963 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He was also dealing with a shoulder injury.

The Buckeyes’ new starter sat the following week, giving the team the opportunity to give curious fans a chance to see Stroud’s backups. They were less impressive, and the rest allowed Stroud to come back to the field with a vengeance. He had three interceptions the rest of the season, and just one game with a completion percentage under the 64.8 percent he posted in Week 2.

Going back to those games after seeing Stroud flourish on the grand stage against Utah in particular highlighted his self-improvement and areas where there’s more work to be done. He was relatively accurate in his first three games but missed on crucial throws downfield in particular. His shoulder injury likely caused his throwing motion to be compromised, because he missed 16 throws beyond 10 yards in his first two games alone.

Those misses dwindled significantly until the only other roadblock the team and Stroud faced in 2021: Michigan. Between Stroud’s return against Rutgers and Michigan, he was as accurate as any quarterback in the country. His physical gifts shined as he bought time to throw and found chunk gains downfield.

The early-game jitters that were apparent in a few of Stroud’s late reads and easy missed throws in the first three weeks returned against Michigan. The Buckeyes, loaded with Wilson, Olave, and young stars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TreVeyon Henderson, were bogged down in key moments often despite their talent. Stroud’s nerves had a clear effect on his performance.

On the throw above, Stroud was a hair late in releasing the ball, and Oregon safety Verone McKinley arrived to break up the completion. This was a game-changing play early on, and a costly mistake that subsequently led to Oregon racing to a large lead against a poor Ohio State run defense. The uncertainty from Stroud against Michigan and early against Utah showed again, but his misses were in another way.

When Stroud misses, he misses high. This leads to tipped passes and interception opportunities on top of missed open receivers. His base widens through his delivery and his arm takes over, but he’s not quite able to utilize his core enough to overcome mechanical issues. This is a common issue for younger passers.

The alarming part is the caliber of receiver Stroud missed in key moments. Losing Wilson and Olave won’t be as devastating as what other programs would experience thanks to the ridiculous talent on the depth chart behind them. It wouldn’t be surprising if the trio of Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Julian Fleming are all top-100 NFL draft picks in the near future as well.

The moment can’t get away from Stroud again in big moments in the future. It’s a lot of pressure for a sophomore, but that’s the reality of playing for a blue blood program. Unless Ohio State’s defense suddenly becomes a top-10 unit under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles (which is possible if not likely), the Buckeyes will need to continue scoring at a top-three rate.

C.J. Stroud can bring the Heisman Trophy back to Ohio State

There are obviously a lot of positives with Stroud’s talent and ability to improve even mid-game. His rebound from a slow start against Utah was especially notable after losing his nerve in several other games. He has a beautiful release and excellent arm talent when he relaxes and plays loosely.

The top-end throws Stroud can make near the sideline are the best in the country. He can be robotic in his movements at times and labor to get through his progressions, but experience and confidence can help. At the end of the day, Ryan Day won’t worry too much about those nitpicks if Stroud can replicate his 71.9 percent completion rate, 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and six interception season.

His raw accuracy numbers echo most of those numbers. He was clutch on conversion downs and in the red zone. And while there’s room to improve because we saw numerous missed connections to his superstar receivers, the only reason there was a semblance of those expectations is because his receivers were so open.

His next batch of receivers likely won’t be as open, and Stroud might be more comfortable throwing into tighter windows and trusting his reads. Opening against Notre Dame and then hosting Wisconsin later in September will test this theory, and his ability to perform right out of the tunnel. Stroud isn’t as accurate or willing to create as Fields but he plays well within the system and is more likely to keep the unit moving on his first read.

The Buckeyes will again be under the microscope in 2022 after a shocking blowout loss to Michigan and disappointing performance from the defense. The offense is built for massive success once again though, with little drop-off to be expected from their next wave of elite talents. It’ll be Stroud who must elevate them though, and not have his receivers do as much of the work in 2022.

Stroud has the talent and will end up in New York next year as a top Heisman contender.

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