2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Bubbles bursting as March begins

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Last 4 Byes

Loyola Chicago, Memphis, Miami, Creighton

Loyola-Chicago fell all the way to the No. 4 seed in Arch Madness after suffering their fifth conference loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday, which leaves open the possibility the Ramblers could be left out if they don’t at least advance to the final on Sunday given their so-so resume to this point.

Memphis is in good shape thanks to some strong results and can take a huge step forward if they can sweep Houston on Sunday while Miami’s resume is shaky outside of its road win at Duke. Creighton remains on this line for now but the loss of Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending injury could weigh against them if the Bluejays continue to struggle in his absence, which could lead the selection committee to judge that Creighton isn’t quite a tournament team without Nembhard.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Last 4 In

Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Indiana

The Wolverines have done good work to get themselves onto the bubble but they can’t afford many more losses to stay there, which is worth monitoring with Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State on the schedule this week. San Diego State moved a lot closer to locking up their spot by knocking off Wyoming on the road on Monday night, but avoiding losses to Fresno State and Nevada would be a big help.

Oregon did good work to complete a sweep of UCLA last week but their collection of horrid losses has them barely over the cut-line at this point. The last team currently in the field right now is Indiana, which nearly blew a 27-point lead at Minnesota over the weekend and now hosts Rutgers on Wednesday in a massive game for the bubble.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The First 4 Out

Rutgers, Florida, SMU, North Carolina

The Scarlet Knights did excellent work to get themselves onto the bubble but have now lost three games in a row, all too likely tournament teams, which puts them back in jeopardy given the string of bad losses they suffered early in the season. The Tar Heels struggled to get past Syracuse on Monday but added another subpar win to a resume with only one Quadrant 1 victory on it, a trait that could help them advance off the bubble if they keep taking care of business while other teams take suspect defeats

Florida is trending up after toppling Auburn two weeks ago and needs to demonstrate that they are a better team with a healthy Colin Castleton, who missed six games in the middle of conference play that saw the Gators pick up their worst SEC loss of the year at Ole Miss. SMU would be the third team out of the American and does have a sweep of Memphis to its name but there are a few too many bad losses for the Mustangs at this point.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Next 4 Out

BYU, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Belmont

BYU’s metrics are solid but there isn’t a ton of quality on its resume, leaving the Cougars in need of at least a win against San Francisco in the WCC tournament to avoid getting left out of the field on Selection Sunday. Belmont was really hurt last week by getting smoked by Murray State in a game they had to win, likely leaving a solid team without a ton of strong results on its resume in need of the auto-bid out of the OVC.

Virginia Tech picked up a big Quad 1 win at Miami on Saturday but still needs to make a run in the ACC Tournament to get closer to the cut line. Dayton is the final team here this week after a two-point loss at La Salle over the weekend added another Quad 4 defeat to a resume that was already being anchored by three Quad 4 home losses in a row in November, leaving this outfit as a potential auto-bid or bust group.

Conference Breakdown

• Big Ten: 8
• Big East: 7
• Big 12: 6
• SEC: 6
• ACC: 4
• Pac-12: 4
• Mountain West: 4
• WCC: 3
• American: 2
• Missouri Valley: 2

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