Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the Valspar Championship as the golf world heads to the Copperhead Course this week.
After a wacky week at TPC Sawgrass, the golf world is moving across the state of Florida to Innisbrook Golf Resort and the Copperhead Course for the Valspar Championship. It’s a great PGA Tour field this week for the tournament as players will try to tackle the Snake Pit and a pretty underrated test on the schedule to replicate what Sam Burns did in winning last year.
Before we get into the Valspar Championship expert picks, though, we are looking back at last week. Our top 5, 10 and 20 picks all got a terrible draw and Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Young all missed the cut. That’s the rub of the green sometimes. However, we had Viktor Hovland as our One and Done and winner pick. While he didn’t win, Hovland did finish T-9 to earn a nice $525,000.
We hit two of our four best bets last week as well with Corey Conners besting Louis Oosthuizen and Max Homa getting inside the top 20 with a great final round. With that all being said, we can do better and, hopefully, won’t have a wild weather week to contend with for the betting markets.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s tackle this field with our PGA Tour expert picks for the Valspar Championship, including our best bets for the week.
PGA Tour expert picks for Valspar Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
One and Done pick for Valspar Championship: Keegan Bradley
Don’t look now, but we’re getting a trending Keegan Bradley right now, which means that he’s a player that could be about to string together multiple weeks where he’s in contention.
He obviously flirted with the lead at THE PLAYERS and finished fifth, but he was also T-11 the previous week at the API. His ball-striking is 100 percent in form and, overall, his short game was at least average last week, which is the recipe for him to compete. I like taking him at the Valspar due to the combination of upside, form and history.
Top 10 pick for Valspar Championship: Viktor Hovland (+135)
Why would I not take Viktor Hovland to finish in the top 10 again? It’s basically all the young Norwegian sensation does at this point. In his last nine starts worldwide, he’s been inside the top 10 in seven of them and inside the top 5 in six of them. His around-the-green game remains a viable concern but his ball-striking might be the best in the world right now and, despite some fatigue concerns, I can’t pass up him going into the top 10 once more here.
Pick to Win Valspar Championship: Keegan Bradley (+4500)
Bradley is my One and Done pick because I like him regardless, but I also think he’s my favorite bet to win the Valspar Championship on the whole. Again, the recent form is 100 percent there as he’s gained strokes in every category over his last 24 rounds except with the putter — but he’s only losing 0.32 strokes per round there, which is honestly good for him.
On top of that, don’t forget that he finished second at the Copperhead Course last year. This is a guy trending in the right way and with win equity as long as the putter isn’t a disaster. I worry slightly about fatigue but love the odds on Bradley this week.
PGA Tour best bets for the Valspar Championship
Tyrrell Hatton (-115) over Shane Lowry – For Tournament
For whatever reason, Tyrrell Hatton isn’t getting the respect he deserves. I will be sprinkling on him to win this week and for some place finishes as well. However, the best bet is for him to beat Shane Lowry at this event. Lowry has been good of late but not necessarily getting into the top 10 outside of the API (which he probably should’ve won). Hatton has been a top-10 machine as of late and I’m not going to pass up these odds for the Englishman to take this matchup at the Valspar.
Keegan Bradley to finish Top 20 (+225)
Because his odds to win are so solid, I like the notion of also sprinkling on another plus odds play for Bradley that is a little more comfortable. Reiterating the previous points, his tee-to-green game is in fantastic shape right now and his putting hasn’t been as negative as it can be when he’s struggling a bit. For him to finish Top 20 at this place feels like a terrific bet.
Doc Redman to finish Top 20 (+550)
This is undoubtedly me taking a look at last week and then at the odds this week and taking a bit of a swing. Doc Redman’s form since the start of the 2021-22 season hasn’t been great, but the young ball-striker has been coming on a bit as of late. His T-26 finish at THE PLAYERS comes after four made cuts in his last five starts and three finishes of T-33 or better. In a slightly weaker field and with him starting to gain his form, I love the value at this spot for him to pop a bit.
Longshot pick to win: Adam Svensson (+125000)
We’ve already seen Adam Svensson pop with two top-10 finishes over the past couple of months and the Canadian continues to display that he’s a terrific ball-striker but is another player who just bleeds strokes on the green and around the putting surface as well. That latter part is worrisome at the Copperhead Course. However, we’ve seen these guys can contend when they find a hot flat-stick on any given week and I love the longshot odds on Svensson to do that this week.