WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down the PGA Tour expert picks for this week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club with best bets and more. 

The PGA Tour can’t just sit on the sidelines and watch March Madness have all of the bracket fun, so we’re getting the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this week from Austin Country Club, one of the most fun events on the schedule because of the unique format.

For those unaware, the 64 highest-ranked players in the world who want to play the event are separated into 16 groups in a bracket. They begin with Round Robin play in four-player groups with the winner then going to the Sweet 16 and elimination rounds. It’s tremendous fun, but also a tremendous opportunity and experience to bet on.

Last week at the Valspar, our picks and best bets were, frankly, horrendous. We’re putting that behind us, though and moving on to this week. Because of the format, we’ll have different types of picks than normal in addition to some unique best bets. But let’s dive into it all here.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet (unless noted). For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Winner, Final Four lock, Group winner lock

Group Winner Lock for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Patrick Cantlay – Group 4

Sticking to just trying to pick a surefire winner, Patrick Cantlay feels as if he got a great draw in his group and would be highly disappointed to not walk into the elimination rounds. He’s simply a superior player to Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell and Seamus Power. Cantlay is also one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s picks to win this week and here’s what he had to say.

"Patrick Cantlay is my favorite bet to win it all. He’s 7-3-1 in match play rounds in his professional career, and 4-1 over his last five including a 4 and 2 defeat of Shane Lowry at the 2021 Ryder Cup. His only loss here last year was to Hideki Matsuyama, which held him back from the group stage.Cantlay is 17th on Tour in total strokes gained this season, and nobody in the field is averaging more birdies per round than him at 5.23."

I love the sprinkle on him to win as well, but getting consensus odds of +165 to just advance out of his group feels like a terrific bet to make.

Final Four pick for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Justin Thomas (+500)

Justin Thomas has the same odds to advance from his group as Cantlay and those would basically be my 1A and 1B locks to win their groups. But I have more faith in Justin Thomas to go deeper in the Match Play bracket than Cantlay and get to the Final Four. Thomas has been in stellar form lately, but just hasn’t gotten the wins. The putting woes have subsided a bit and his ball-striking is at an all-time high. His quadrant in the bracket does offer some challenges but I love for him to emerge and really showcase how good he’s playing in a match play setting.

Pick to Win WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Brooks Koepka (+3300)

Give me Brooks Koepka to win the match play this year. I understand that the variance has always been high with him and that can scare some people away — but it also means you can find value in him on the betting markets. More pressingly, though, his form has been rounding out lately and he’s popped on a number of leaderboards. I think this format, though is record is average, lends itself to him being motivated and performing well and this feels like a moment when he could make a real statement.

Koepka was also my pick to win on the video golf betting show Iain MacMillan and I did where we broke down our group winner picks, Final Fours and winners, which you can check out below.

PGA Tour best bets for the Valspar Championship

Alex Noren to win Group 10

Since the Dell Match Play moved to Austin Country Club, only five players have 11 or more wins: Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson and Alex Noren. Of that five, Noren’s 11-3 record since moving to Austin gives him the best win percentage. On top of that, the Swede has been in tremendous form as of late, going T-6, T-48, T-5, T-26 and T-12 in his last five starts. At around +300 consensus odds in a winnable group with Oosthuizen, Corey Conners and Paul Casey, I love the value for Noren to emerge.

Richard Bland over Bryson DeChambeau – Match 1, Wednesday

Given the overall body of work, it stands to reason why Bryson DeChambeau is a heavy favorite over Richard Bland in their opening match. What doesn’t compute, however, is that DeChambeau is making his first start since suffering a wrist injury that appears quite serious and Bland has continued to play steadily well over the last year. With consensus odds around +155, I love for Bland to come out and pull off an early upset at a course where DeChambeau’s length off the tee may actually be detrimental to him — especially with the injury — and not advantageous.

Matt Fitzpatrick Top 8 Finish (+500)

In the video betting preview, I had Matt Fitzpatrick as one of my top group winner picks, even coming out of the proverbial Group of Death with Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood and match play legend Ian Poulter.

While that is a bit too risky to call a best bet here, I stand firm in that stance because of how well the Englishman is playing right now. More importantly, though, whoever emerges from that group feels likely to go on a run. I’m buying in on the form and the all-around polished game of Fitzpatrick and getting him at +500 to just win one match after Round Robin play feels like great value.

Longshot pick to win: Cameron Young (+10000)

Getting out of the group stage could be a tall task for Cameron Young as he drew Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed (though Reed’s form has been awful for the most part) in Group 1. With that said, we’ve seen the PGA Tour rookie really rise to prominence as of late with great ball-striking and some sneaky-good and popping short game as well. At such long odds, he feels like the right type of dark horse that could make some noise.

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