Scottish Open expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

NORTH BERWICK, SCOTLAND - JULY 11: Justin Thomas of United States of America tees off on the 5th hole during Day Four of the abrdn Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club on July 11, 2021 in North Berwick, Scotland. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
NORTH BERWICK, SCOTLAND - JULY 11: Justin Thomas of United States of America tees off on the 5th hole during Day Four of the abrdn Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club on July 11, 2021 in North Berwick, Scotland. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /

Breaking down our Scottish Open picks as golf heads to The Renaissance Club this week and we offer our best bets, PGA Tour expert picks and more. 

As part of the strategic alliance with the DP World Tour and to help players prepare for next week’s Open Championship, the PGA Tour this week is heading to The Renaissance Club for the Scottish Open. Even better, all of that plays into this being an absolutely loaded field with virtually all of the best players in the world.

Since this event moved to The Renaissance Club in 2019, what we’ve seen is close, low-scoring tournament that, particularly when the wind doesn’t pick up, doesn’t require accuracy, somewhat favors longer drivers, puts an emphasis on long approaches, and most importantly requires guys who can put up a low score.

We’re coming off of the John Deere Classic where our outright, Denny McCarthy, came close but the rest of our picks and best bets left a bit to be desired. Onward and upward, as always, but we need a good week and this feels like one to take advantage of. With that, let’s get into our Scottish Open picks as we break down our best bets and PGA Tour expert picks for the week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Scottish Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Pick to Win the Scottish Open: Justin Thomas (+1400)

There was a big part of me that wanted to look further down the board for an outright pick this week but I can’t get past Justin Thomas. While his US Open performance was a bit disappointing, he had three Top 5 finishes in four starts prior to that, including his PGA Championship win. He’s a Top 5 player in long Par 4 scoring, is an underrated driver in terms of distance, and has two Top 10 finishes already at The Renaissance Club. I love him this week to keep his tremendous form and take the Scottish Open.

Top 10 pick for Scottish Open: Xander Schauffele (+225)

Speaking of good form and good fits at this event, Schauffele is another player in that mold. He finished 10th in this event last year and has been hot as of late with a win at the Travelers and no finish worse than T18 in the last two months. His combination of strengths with driving and approach from long areas make him a great pick and getting north of +200 for a Top 10 makes him great value in this spot as well.

One and Done Pick for Scottish Open: Matt Fitzpatrick

Having already used Schauffele for a One and Done pick and wanting to hold onto Thomas for a bit longer (perhaps an unwise decision), I do like Matt Fitzpatrick in his first start since winning at Brookline. He lost in a playoff at this event last year and has been playing the best golf of his career basically since that time. His added length off of the tee should pair with his well-rounder overall game and get him into a good finishing position. I also like him for a Top 10 finish at +200.

Scottish Open picks and best bets

Max Homa to finish Top 20 (+225)

The value on this play is truly absurd and goes back to an old talking point that Max Homa is just extremely underrated right now. Over the last 20 rounds, he’s tied for 10th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and excels from the long-iron distances as well. He also has three Top 20 finishes in his last five starts with one of the ones outside that range being T23. Homa is playing like an elite player and I don’t expect that to stop at a venue that should suit him.

Viktor Hovland to finish Top 20 (+200)

Despite not finishing in the Top 20 in his last four starts, I’m banking on a return to form for Viktor Hovland at a place where his losing 0.63 strokes per round around the greens shouldn’t hinder his success. His DNA is that of a ball-striker and, while that has slid a bit over the past month or two, he’s had a break to reset himself and I think we see a good showing from him to cash this bet.

Padraig Harrington to finish Top 20 (+700)

We’re going with a bit of a longshot play here and, though WynnBet doesn’t offer Top 40 plays, if your book does, then I would prefer that. Regardless, Harrington most recently won the US Senior Open on the Champions Tour and has finished T19 and T8 in this event since it’s been at The Renassiance Club. His length won’t fit the profile here but his success and form even at his age suggest that he’s still a great play this week with the value he presents.

Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 (+150)

We’re trying to profit from Thomas no matter what and I love this value on a Top 10 play considering he’s already done that twice at this tournament and venue. With his form and style of play, this is a great track for him to succeed and getting plus-money for a Top 10 feels like too good of value to not mention, even if it is a bit square.

Longshot pick to win Scottish Open: Chris Kirk (+10000)

Editor’s Note: The initial longshot pick was Harold Varner III but he has withdrawn.

With HV3 taking the WD this week, I’m pivoting my longshot pick to Chris Kirk. The modest (though not short) length off of the tee does concern me a bit, but the rest of his game has been so sharp all year long. If he can find some consistency with the putter in a low-scoring place, I think his game is suited for a strong finish at the Scottish Open.

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