TOUR Championship picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down the TOUR Championship picks and best bets as we reach the season finale and try to cash our PGA Tour expert picks.

Talk about bittersweet. The end of the 2021-22 golf season is upon us with the 30 players remaining in the race for the FedExCup descending upon East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship this week.

For those unfamiliar, the TOUR Championship changed its format to a staggered start based on the FedExCup standings after the penultimate playoff event. So now the leader in the standings, Scottie Scheffler in this year’s tournament, starts at 10-under. Thereafter, second place (Patrick Cantlay) starts at 8-under, Will Zalatoris would’ve started at 7-under if not for his WD due to a back injury, fourth place at 6-under, fifth at 5-under and then pods of five (places No. 6-10, No. 11-15, etc.) will start at 4-under all the way down to No. 26-30 in the FedExCup race starting at even par.

That makes betting and making TOUR Championship picks a bit more complicated than a normal week as most bookmakers are including the staggered scoring start into the odds that are being given. That’s why Scheffler is at a meager +200 to win because of where he’s starting.

We were close with Xander Schauffele to win and Jon Rahm to Top 5 last week but our only hit was Joaquin Niemann as a solid One and Done play. The card is a bit lighter this week but we dive into our last PGA Tour expert picks of the season with our TOUR Championship best bets to try and finish this year strong.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet unless noted as consensus odds. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for TOUR Championship: Winner, Top 5, One and Done

Top 5 pick for TOUR Championship: Scott Stallings (+1100)

As we come into the TOUR Championship, Stallings is starting the week at 3-under and T10, meaning an opening birdie while the rest of the 3-unders par would immediately get him into the Top 5. But more importantly, the PGA Tour veteran is playing a brand of golf that just lends itself to having success at East Lake.

Not only did Stallings contend last week but he’s the third-best player in this field on approach in the last 20 rounds, gaining an eye-popping 0.98 strokes per round over that span. He has also gained 0.35 strokes or more in every other major category in that same timeframe and has been driving the ball fairly accurately too. After seeing a 3-under and 2-under starter make the Top 5 last year, the value on Stallings in his current form is too great for me to ignore and not back.

One and Done Pick for TOUR Championship: Sepp Straka

This isn’t where I thought I’d end up with this pick but, as I’ve mentioned, my strategy in One and Done left a lot to be desired and the names I could use are limited.

Straka is intriguing, though. Even if he doesn’t have history at East Lake, he’s been playing extremely well over the past two weeks, including losing to Zalatoris in the playoff in Memphis. He’s been striking the ball beautifully and thrived on the Bermuda grass at the FedEx St. Jude, so that plays in his favor as well. With him starting at 4-under, I like the value he presents as a solid starter in this tournament.

Pick to Win TOUR Championship: Xander Schauffele (+700)

I’m sticking to my guns with Xander Schauffele like I was on last week. But the case is even stronger as we head to the TOUR Championship.

His history at East Lake is astounding. He had the lowest score to par (15-under) in 2020 and also hasn’t finished outside the Top 5 in the new format in addition to winning the vent under the old format in 2017. Last week, he gained 2.15 strokes per round ball striking and putted well. Now at a place where he has arguably the best course history of anyone in the field — even better than Rory McIlroy, he starts at 6-under just four strokes off the lead and I think he makes up that ground to win.

TOUR Championship picks and best bets

Xander Schauffele to finish Top 5 (-111)

Doubling down on Schauffele, I love his odds not being that far removed from even to finish inside the Top 5 when he’s already starting in that position. When you then combine his recent form and his history at this event an venue, I don’t know how you don’t like the value he presents at this number.

Viktor Hovland to finish Top 10 (+190 consensus odds)

Hovland has been pretty frustrating to wager on as of late, but I love his pedigree as a ball-striker at a course where he made a run into the Top 5 last year. He’s starting at 2-under and T15 for the week with the staggered scoring but he was double digits under par for the tournament last season in just 72-hole stroke play. I love for him to find his ball-striking form again as he’s been inconsistent and vault just slightly up into the Top 10 to cash this ticket.

Joaquin Niemann over Jordan Spieth (Matchup, +100 consensus odds)

Fading Jordan Spieth early at the BMW was costly last week but I’m still ready to do it again. These two start at 2-under together but I don’t see how you can look at the steadiness and ball striking of Neimann and not think that even odds is superb value in relation to the unreliable Spieth, particularly the way he’s hit it off the tee with no semblance of consistency.

Longshot pick to win TOUR Championship: Sam Burns (+2500)

For the TOUR Championship, longshots are relative given the short odds for the leaders. So it’s wild to me that the player starting outright in fourth and five strokes off the lead, Sam Burns, is at +2500 this week. He’s an elite ball-striker who doesn’t get his due still, despite his wins over the past two seasons, and his game should be suited to thrive at East Lake. This is worth a little sprinkle given the value on the number in relation to the gap he has to make up in the staggered scoring.

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