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Indianapolis Colts season prediction: Best and worst case scenario for 2022

By Russell S. Baxter

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - AUGUST 20: Matt Ryan #2 of the Indianapolis Colts looks on before the preseason game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - AUGUST 20: Matt Ryan #2 of the Indianapolis Colts looks on before the preseason game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /
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Welcome to FanSided’s 2022 NFL preview! It’s time to look into our crystal football and take a glimpse at the Indianapolis Colts season prediction.`

It’s been almost two decades since the Colts secured the franchise’s fourth NFL title via a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. The team got back to the “Big Game” in 2009 but Peyton Manning and company came up short against the New Orleans Saints. There was the brief Andrew Luck Era which peaked with an AFC title game appearance in 2014.

But that’s also the last time the team won a division title. There have been the occasional playoff appearances but it’s a club that hasn’t been able to string those together. This offseason, general manager Chris Ballard orchestrated a trade for quarterback Matt Ryan. He also made some key defensive additions. And this appears to be the most talented team in the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts 2021 season in review

  • 9-8 record
  • 2nd place in AFC South
  • Failed to qualify for playoffs

Things did not start out well for Frank Reich’s new-look Colts, who would feature a different starting quarterback in Week 1 for the fifth consecutive year. Former Philadelphia Eagles first-round draft choice Carson Wentz was reunited with Reich hoping to turn around his career. But the team lost its first three games to the Seahawks, Rams and rival Titans, respectively.

Eventually, the team would hit its stride and the offense would be carried by second-year running back Johnny Taylor, who led the NFL in carries (332), rushing yards (1,811) and total yards from scrimmage (2.171). He and Chargers’ running back Austin Ekeler tied for the NFL lead with 20 total touchdowns. And the surging Colts would win nine of their next 12 games.

So with a 9-6 record and two games remaining, the team appeared primed to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive year. However, the Colts couldn’t stop the visiting Raiders late in the game and fell, 23-20. And Reich’s team failed to show up at Jacksonville against a team that had won just two games in 16 tries – scoring a season-low 11 points in a 15-point loss.

Indianapolis Colts NFL Draft class 2022

  • Rd 2: Alec Pierce, WR/Cincinnati
  • Rd 3: Jelani Woods, TE/Virginia
  • Rd 3: Bernhard Raimann, OT/Central Michigan
  • Rd 3: Nick Cross, S/Maryland
  • Rd 5: Eric Johnson, DT/Missouri State
  • Rd 6: Andrew Ogletree, TE/Youngstown State
  • Rd 6: Curtis Brooks, DT/Cincinnati
  • Rd 7: Rodney Thomas, S/Yale

For the third time in four years, the franchise had no selection on the opening night of the draft. That was due to the fact that general manager Chris Ballard traded for then-Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz in 2021. And because the young signal-caller played at least 75 percent of the snaps this past season, the conditional choice became a first-round selection.

The Colts sent Wentz and two draft choices this year to Washington for three picks (including a conditional selection in 2023). Ballard bolstered the team’s wide receiving corps with University of Cincinnati standout Alec Pierce. He also made three selections in the third round, including tight end Jelani Woods and tackle Bernhard Raimann, who could wind up a starter early on.

Previewing Colts offense for 2022 season

  • Key offseason additions
    • Matt Ryan, QB
    • Alec Pierre, WR
    • Bernhard Raimann, OT
  • Biggest X-Factor: WR Parris Campbell
  • Squeakiest Wheel: TE Mo Alie-Cox

The team has a new quarterback (again) in 14-year veteran Matt Ryan. He comes off a so-so season in which he hit on 67.0 percent of his passes for 3,968 yards, 20 touchdown passes and a dozen interceptions. But he put the ball on the ground 11 times (losing 4 fumbles) and was sacked 40 times. But the four-time Pro Bowler now finds himself with a better supporting cast.

A year ago, the Falcons ranked 31st in yards per game on the ground. Now Ryan joins a club that not only finished with the second-most rushing yards but features the NFL’s top ground-gainer in 2021 in workhorse Jonathan Taylor. Wide receiver Michael Pittman led the team in catches and rookie Alec Pierre hopes to make an immediate impact. More help is needed here.

A few years ago, Indianapolis’ offensive line was one of the NFL’s top units. Following the 2020 season, left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired. This year, unsung right guard Mark Glowinski signed with the Giants. But star left guard Quenton Nelson remains, as do sound veterans in center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith. But there could be some early growing pains.

Previewing Colts defense for 2022 season

  • Key offseason additions
    • Yannick Ngakoue, DE
    • Stephon Gilmore, CB
    • Rodney McLeod, S
  • Biggest X-Factor: DE Kwitty Paye
  • Squeakiest Wheel: LB Zaire Franklin

There were a few significant changes when it came to this side of the ball. The biggest was the departure of defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, now the head coach of the Chicago Bears. Another had to do with the artist formerly known as linebacker Darius Leonard. The reliable tackling machine and big-player performer now has the nom de guerre of Shaquille Leonard.

The new coordinator is veteran coach Gus Bradley, who has certainly made the rounds. He inherits a group that not only includes Leonard but stars in defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and cornerback Kenny Moore II. The Colts relied on takeaways this past season (33) and only the Dallas Cowboys had more (34). Consistency is something this group lacked a year ago.

Help comes in what should be an improved pass rush thanks to the addition of end Yannick Ngakoue, obtained via trade from the Raiders for cornerback Rock Ya-Sin. The Colts finished with a mediocre 33 sacks a year ago. And 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore bolsters the secondary. Indianapolis allowed 32 scores through the air this past season.

Indianapolis Colts coaching staff overview

  • Head Coach: Frank Reich
  • Off. Coordinator: Marcus Brady
  • Def. Coordinator: Gus Bradley
  • 2023 Head Coach Candidate: Richard Smith

Frank Reich returns for his fifth season as the team’s head coach. And as has been very well-documented, he will have yet another starting quarterback in Week 1 with the addition of Matt Ryan. Marcus Brady returns for his second year as offensive coordinator after replacing Nick Sirianni in 2021. Gus Bradley takes over for Matt Eberflus, now the Chicago Bears’ head coach.

Indianapolis Colts Awards Watch

There’s little doubt that both running back Jonathan Taylor and quarterback Matt Ryan could be in the NFL MVP sweepstakes. The former (who won the award with the Falcons in 2016) led the NFL in rushing in 2021 while the veteran signal-caller continues to put up impressive numbers as he climbs up the all-time passing charts.

RB Jonathan Taylor, MVP

It’s been a quarterback award for the most part. But there has been the occasional exception and it could depend on the kind of numbers second-year running back Jonathan Taylor puts up. He led the NFL in rushing a year ago with 1,811 yards (18 TDs), finished with a league-best 2,171 yards from scrimmage and tied for the NFL touchdown lead with 20 visits to the end zone.

S Nick Cross, Defensive Rookie of the Year

General manager Chris Ballard has found his share of gems outside of the first round of the draft. Safety Nick Cross was the second of two third-round draft choices in April and figure to see plenty of action in new Colts’ defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s system. The Stanford product finished the preseason with seven total tackles (4 solo) and one pass defensed.

WR Alec Pierce, Offensive Rookie of the Year

In 2021, Michael Pittman led the team with 88 catches and also paced the Colts in receiving yards (1,082) and scoring grabs (6). But the Colts did not bring back veteran T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal signed with the Eagles and Parris Campbell’s career has been plagued by injuries. Alec Pierce caught 52 passes for 884 yards and eight scores in his final year with the Bearcats.

Biggest game on Indianapolis Colts schedule

The Colts open with visits to Houston and Jacksonville. The club has not beaten the Jaguars on the road since 2014. But it’s the Week 4 clash with the reigning AFC South champion Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium that is key. A year ago, Frank Reich’s club managed a 3-3 record within the division. A season ago, Tennessee swept the Colts a year ago for the first time since 2017.

Indianapolis Colts season prediction: Best case scenario

Frank Reich’s team gets off to a strong start and takes care of business against its AFC South rivals. The team plays five divisional games in the first seven weeks of 2022, including a pair with both the Jaguars and Titans – the latter winners of the AFC South the past two seasons. Reich’s club wins four of those games and it enables to club to build a little early momentum.

Indianapolis Colts season prediction: Worst case scenario

Indianapolis still features one of the better offensive lines in the league but it’s a different unit that dominated for years. Any drop-off in this area could be a detriment to running back Jonathan Taylor as well as veteran quarterback Matt Ryan. If the Colts finish 3-3 within the division for the second straight year it could put a serious crimp in reaching the postseason.

Indianapolis Colts season prediction for 2022

  • 11-6 record
  • 1st place in AFC South
  • Playoff Prediction: Reach AFC Championship Game

While the rival Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars once again have new head coaches and the Tennessee Titans lost some key players to free agency, trades and injury, the Colts appear to be the most talented team in the division. Matt Ryan brings a lot more experience and consistency than Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor has emerged as a star and the defense bears watching this season. Last year’s club dug itself an early hole and then came up short the final two weeks.

The Colts should win a division title and will be a very dangerous team in the playoffs.

Read more from FanSided’s 2022 NFL Preview here. For more Indianapolis Colts coverage, check out Horseshoe Heroes. 

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