College football 2022 Week 4 upset pick, lock, bad bet, and strangest thing

The 2022 college football season is rolling right along, and while Week 3 wasn’t quite as topsy-turvy as Week 2, there was still a lot of excitement. 

Week 3 of the 2022 college football season was all about one thing. History. With ESPN College Gameday visiting the campus of Appalachian State for the first time in show history, something historic was bound to happen, and brother did it ever happen.

We saw a deflected Hail Mary pass to put the Mountaineers in the win column against Troy. It was a historic ending to a captivating game.

You want more history? For the first time in program history, Auburn hosted a Big Ten team at Jordan-Hare stadium, and perhaps their southern hospitality was a little too hospitable, with the Penn State Nittany Lions demolishing the Tigers in a 41-12 rout.

Marcus Freeman finally got his first win as the head coach of Notre Dame. Kansas moved to 3-0 and is (ready for this) currently in first place in the Big 12. And, for the first time in history, the four big-time college basketball “Blue Bloods” — Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, and North Carolina — are all 3-0 on the gridiron.

History, indeed.

While my picks may not have necessarily been historic, I didn’t do badly.

Upset: I took troy to beat the 12.5-point spread against App State, and despite the heroics by the Mountaineers, they did not cover the spread (although I’m sure they’re more than happy with the win).

My bonus upset pick didn’t quite pan out, however. Even the pathetic Iowa offense managed to beat Nevada by more than 24 points, but barely, with a 27-0 win.

Lock: I took Georgia -24.5 over South Carolina. Some said it was a suckers bet and I was off my nut. Georgia rolled to a 48-7 victory.

2-1 last week and 5-2 on the season so far, and once again the game I recommended staying away from turned out to be as crazy as I figured, with the Seminoles squeaking by in a 35-31 back-and-forth game against Louisville.

Here are my picks for Week 4 with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Week 4 Upset Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Virginia Tech Hokies

Neither the Mountaineers nor the Hokies have been particularly impressive this year, even in their wins. West Virginia has managed to put up a lot of points in both wins and losses – averaging 46 points per game, which is 11th nationally, but defensively they’ve essentially been swinging gates on skates.

Virginia Tech is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 games, however, one thing very few teams do is to come into Lane Stadium at night and come away with a win. Thursday nights at Lane is where Beamer-ball was born, and while the longtime coach may not be on the sidelines anymore, the mystique of the Thursday night game and the roar of Metallica’s “Enter Sandman” will be more than WVU can handle.

Pick: Hokies beat the spread and beat the Mountaineers straight up. I’m calling my shot. 

Many teams begin conference play this week, which means locks are going to be more difficult to predict in many cases. Here’s one I think you can take to the bank.

College Football Week 4 Lock: Duke Blue Devils vs Kansas Jayhawks

Forget Knoxville, Tennessee, and the Gators-Vols matchup…THIS should be where College GameDay is set up for the weekend. While Rece Davis and company are down in SEC land, we have two basketball blue-bloods who are undefeated and playing lights-out football.

Kansas is 3-0 ATS so far this season and it’s the first time they’ve been favored against a Power-5 team since the 2009 season. This is a huge game for both the Jayhawks and their fans, and you can expect Memorial Stadium will be rocking.

The question is, should you take the over/under bet as well as bet the spread in this one? Absolutely. With an O/U of 66.5 points, this one is almost a given, with neither team scoring less than 30 points in any of their games this season.

Pick: Kansas by 10, and a final tally of at least 72 points. 

So what’s the game to stay away from this week? Well, back to the ACC we go for another potential pick-em game.

College Football Week 4 Bad Bet: Clemson Tigers vs Wake Forest Deamon Deacons

No no no no no no no. If there are two teams you want to avoid in terms of betting when they’re playing Clemson, it’s North Carolina State and Wake Forest. A noon game on the road for the Tigers is even less appealing for a bet.

These are two completely different 3-0 teams, and truth be told, I don’t trust either one of them. Both have scored a lot of points against essentially nobody, and Clemson has probably been a little more solid on defense.

But this is not the Clemson of the last ten years or so, and while the Tigers will probably escape Winston-Salem with a victory, it’s not going to be easy, and that win could just as easily be by one point as it could 7 or more.

Nope, avoid this one the way Georgia Tech avoids the end zone this year.

Pick: Clemson avoids the upset in typical early-season Clemson fashion. 

The Strangest Thing We Saw in College Football Week 3

While the App State Hail Mary may have been the most exciting thing we saw this week, it certainly wasn’t the strangest. That honor goes to the Georgia-South Carolina game and a 4th down play by the Gamecocks that was delayed by a between-quarter ceremony honoring South Carolina’s female student-athletes.

Less than a minute after being allowed onto the field for the honor, the women being recognized were suddenly quickly ushered off the field. This was obviously a planned event between quarters, but Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer apparently didn’t consult his program for the day, having a near meltdown on the field as Georgia got a great look at the personnel and formation the Gamecocks were about to run on 4th down.

Ultimately, the play failed and Carolina turned the ball over on downs. What a shame.

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