WATCH: The 10 most incredible completions of NFL Week 3 [UPDATED]

The NFL blesses us with huge catches every week. Here are some improbable catches from Week 3.

The biggest NFL catches of the week deserve to be appreciated. Not only do they take pinpoint accuracy from quarterbacks, but proper positioning from players and athletic ability to twist, leap and grab.

We’ve tracked the most improbable completions from Week 1 and Week 2, but Week 3 was the best yet for incredible catches. Two catches had sub-10% probabilities, which hadn’t happened yet this season. The 6 most improbable completions going into Monday night of the entire season were from Week 3, with seven of the top 10 being from Week 3.

Keep it locked here for an updated list of videos of the best and most improbable completions of the week.

Tua Tagovailoa to River Cracraft for an 11-yard TD (22.7% completion probability)

What a pass for Tua Tagovailoa. He threads the needle in front of Taron Johnson with Kaiir Elam and Jaquan Johnson right behind his intended target, River Cracraft. Both Johnson and Elam were within a yard of Cracraft. He swallows it up no problem and gets the Dolphins six.

This would have been the fifth-most improbable catch through the first two weeks, but this week it just barely makes the top 10. That should get you extremely excited for what’s to come in the rest of this list.

Factors impacting completion probability:

• Closest pass defender(s)

Justin Herbert to Jalen Guyton for 54-yard reception (21.4% completion percentage)

Justin Herbert rolls outside the pocket, and with a defender on his back slings a ball to Jalen Guyton at midfield.

The coverage from Rayshawn Jenkins was fantastic, but Guyton wasn’t dropping this one.

Knowing Justin Herbert is injured, it makes a throw like this even more impressive.

Factors impacting completion probability:

• Time to throw
• Closest pash rusher
• Closest defender

Trevor Lawrence to Marvin Jones for 11-yard TD (21.3% completion probability)

So. Smooth. Trevor Lawrence drops back and puts it right where it needs to be for Marvin Jones.

Factors impacting catch probability:

• Closest defender
• Proximity to back of end zone

Jameis Winston to Tre’Quan Smith for 48-yard reception (20.7% completion probability)

Tre’Quan Smith caught a 48-yard ball but went out with injury after he received it. A play diagram can be viewed here.

Smith ran a vertical route and was only within a yard of Jeremy Chinn upon catching the ball. Winston rolled out of the pocket and launched it.

It came in garbage time and resulted in a Smith injury, so it doesn’t feel great for Saints fans.

Factors impacting catch probability:

• Time to throw
• Air yards
• Closest defender
• Sideline proximity

Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith for 44-yard reception (15.9% completion percentage)

Once a week there’s typically a catch that statistically isn’t the best of the week, but visually looks like it should be. This might be it for Week 3.

Hurts and Smith connected for a huge throw here getting the Eagles within a few yards of the endzone. Smith sees the opportunity and goes up to get his ball. He comes down hard but keeps it secure.

A big-time play for a big-time player. Not the last of him you’ll see on this list.

Factors impacting catch probability:

• Time to throw
• Air yards
• Closest defender(s)

Geno Smith to D.K. Metcalf for 18-yard TD (15.6% completion probability)

With pressure coming in, Geno Smith gets it to a rising D.K. Metcalf for the grab. Metcalf uses his frame to rise above Jaylin Hawkins. A.J. Terrell was in front of Metcalf as well by just a yard and a half.

Factors impacting catch probability:

• Closest pass rusher(s)
• Time to throw
• Air yards
• Closest defender(s)

Jimmy Garoppolo to Kyle Juszczyk for a 24-yard reception (13.6% completion probability)

Yeah, you need to see multiple angles of this one…

The fact that this is a fullback, too, wow. Juszcsyk just barely gets his toes in bounds with a defender draped on him.

Factors impacting catch probability:

• Closest defender
• Proximity to sideline

Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews for a 16-yard TD (12.7% completion probability)

This one doesn’t quite look like the others that typically show up on this list. When we think of tough completions, we often think of prayer throws that are aired out for long yardage in the hopes that the receiver can make a play on it.

This makes the list this week. It may not look like your prototypical incredible completion, but the data says it qualifies.

There’s a lot of noise here. The close proximity of this play forces stats like “closest pass rusher” and “closest pass defender” (as well as number of rushers and defenders) to be really misleading when they’re factored in to calculate the ultimate completion probability.

But taking a close look at it, it isn’t exactly as easy as the play looks at first glance. With multiple pass rushers coming his way, Jackson needs to make a move or accept a major loss of yardage to go to fourth down. He makes a snap choice to shovel the pass off into a crowded area. It ends clean and the Ravens get six, but it easily could have gone another way.

It really captures the frenetic freestyle tone Jackson plays with, and it deserves to be appreciated even if it doesn’t quite fit the rest of this list.

Factors impacting completion probability:

• Closest pash rusher(s)
• Closest defender(s)

Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith for a 45-yard reception (8.1% completion probability)

Could be the catch of the year right here, folks. Hurts placed this perfectly, and Smith made a great grab with the receiver right on top of him.

At the time of the throw, 2.5 yards separated Hurts and the pass rusher Efe Odaba, though he did have decent protection between him. The most impressive part was Smith being able to catch the ball with his back to it and within just inches of the sidelines.

Factors impacting completion probability:

• Time to pass
• Closest pass rusher
• Air yards
• Closest defender
• Proximity to sideline

Mac Jones to DeVante Parker for 25-yard reception (7.4% completion probability)

Wow. We thought the DeVonta Smith reception was good, and this topped it. After no sub-10% completions in the first two weeks of the season, we got two in the 1 pm slate alone.

After picking up a low snap, Jones finds DeVante Parker 25 yards downfield. Two defenders are within a yard of him, but Parker makes the grab look easy as he tumbles down.

Factors impacting completion probability:

• Closest pass defender(s)
• Proximity to sideline

Keep it close here, as we’re updating this page with the best catches of the week as we go along.