Dallas Cowboys playoff scenarios for Week 11

The Dallas Cowboys can make big leaps toward the postseason with a Week 11 win.

The Dallas Cowboys have had a pretty good season, but some of the early luster is slipping away on the heels of a loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.

Sure, the Packers needed a win more, but the Cowboys had a chance to virtually end their season on the road and couldn’t get it done. They fell out of the second slot in the NFC East behind the Giants, who have just two losses compared to the Cowboys’ three.

Dallas overcame significant early-season adversity when Dak Prescott went down with an injury in Week 1 and missed a handful of games. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush stood in admirably going 4-1 as a starter.

Now, we’re coming down to the wire in a conference and division that is tightly contested. The Cowboys are in the playoff picture for now, but need to keep winning to secure their spot for certain.

Here’s how the playoff picture looks going into Week 11 and how the playoff scenarios would look with a win or loss this week, as well as a quick glimpse into other games Cowboys fans need to care about.

Dallas Cowboys record, NFC East Standings

1. Eagles: 8-1; 0 GB
2. New York Giants: 7-2; 1 GB
3. Dallas Cowboys: 6-3; 2 GB
4. Washington Commanders: 5-5; 4 GB

NFC Standings, playoff picture

1. Eagles: 8-1
2. Vikings: 8-1
3. Seahawks: 6-4
4. Buccaneers: 5-5
5. Giants: 5-5
6. Cowboys: 6-3
7. 49ers: 5-4
8. Commanders: 5-5
9. Packers: 4-6
10. Falcons: 4-6
11. Cardinals: 4-6
12. Lions: 3-6
13. Rams: 3-6
14. Panthers: 3-7
15. Saints: 3-7
16. Bears: 3-7

If the season were to end at the conclusion of Week 10, the NFC representatives in the postseason would look like this:

1. Eagles
2. Vikings
3. Seahawks
4. Buccaneers
5. Giants
6. Cowboys
7. 49ers

Dallas Cowboys playoff chances with a win vs loss

Going into Week 11, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives the Cowboys a 93 percent chance of making the postseason, a 24 percent chance of winning the NFC East, and an 11 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. They also have a 9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

If the Cowboys win, their odds look like this, per the model:

• Make playoffs: 98% (+5% over chances going into Week 11)
• Win division: 35% (+11%)
• 1st-round bye: 23% (+12%)
• Win Super Bowl: 13% (+4%)

If they lose, it looks like this:

• Make playoffs: 89% (-4% change compared to chances going into Week 11; -9% swing from win)
• Win division: 15% (15%; -20% swing)
• 1st-round bye: 1% (-10%; -22% swing)
• Win Super Bowl: 6% (-3%; -7% swing)

Other games that have huge impacts on Cowboys playoff chances

There are other games to keep an eye on.

An Eagles loss to the Colts feels improbable, but that plus a Cowboys win would increase the chances of Dallas winning the NFC East to 45%, better than the Eagles in that scenario (43%). It would also give the Cowboys a 15% chance of winning the Super Bowl, while the Eagles would have just a 7% chance. Since the Colts are riding high off a win in their first week with new coach Jeff Saturday, they could have surprising momentum on their side.

A Giants loss would also do the Cowboys well, but they play the Lions. That would be a huge upset.

If the Cowboys lose and the Commanders win, it would hurt the Cowboys playoff chances slightly more. While Cowboys fans may want to keep an eye on the Packers in the NFC playoff picture, a win for Green Bay on Thursday night is statistically insignificant toward the Cowboys’ playoff chances.

Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl chances with a win in Week 11

A win in Week 11 takes the Cowboys Super Bowl chances from 9 percent to 13 percent. As mentioned previously, the combination of that and the Eagles losing to the Colts would increase that even further to 15 percent.

Going into Week 11, the best chance to win the Super Bowl according to FiveThirtyEight is the Chiefs at 22 percent. The Bills follow at 12 percent, and the Vikings and Eagles are tied at 11 percent. The Cowboys, going into the week, follow with the fifth-best chances at nine percent.