Are Georgia and Michigan now locked into the College Football Playoff?

Georgia and Michigan are pretty much guarantees to make it back to the College Football Playoff now.

While nothing is official until it is, we can safely say that Georgia and Michigan will be back in the College Football Playoff for the second straight season.

The Dawgs and Wolverines met in the Orange Bowl last holiday season. Although the result went massively in Georgia’s favor, Michigan took that loss in stride and has not suffered a defeat since. The Dawgs improved to 12-0 on the season by crushing Georgia Tech in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, while the Wolverines also improved to 12-0 by shellacking Ohio State late in The Game.

Barring horrific showings in the SEC and Big Ten championship games, both teams are getting in.

Are Georgia and Michigan virtual locks to make the College Football Playoff now?

In theory, we could lump TCU in with the Dawgs and Wolverines, should the Horned Frogs beat Iowa State this evening and get to the Big 12 Championship Game at 12-0. However, there is a clear pecking order of what 12-0 team could afford a loss in their respective conference title bouts the most: Georgia, then Michigan and then TCU. Here is why it is those three teams in that order.

If the Dawgs were to lose to the LSU Tigers in Atlanta, they would almost certainly get in anyway. This is because two-loss LSU would make the four-team field as the SEC champion. LSU would go from No. 5 to probably No. 3 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Conversely, unless the Dawgs get absolutely blown out by the Bayou Bengals, they would not drop from No. 1 to No. 5.

When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines might be in the same spot as Georgia, but not exactly. This is because, while they are 12-0 too, a neutral-site loss to either Purdue, Illinois or Iowa in Indianapolis would be considerably worse, as the Boilermakers, Fighting Illini or Hawkeyes have no shot at making the playoff whatsoever. However, Michigan would be a huge favorite over all them.

And if we want to include TCU in this discussion, the Horned Frogs could get in with a win at home over Iowa State and a neutral-site loss to either Kansas State or Texas. This is because the Wildcats and the Longhorns are better teams over the three teams still in it to win the Big Ten West title. TCU losing the regular-season rematch in nearby Arlington is not good, but not horrific.

Ultimately, Georgia is about as close to a lock to get in as you could get. A USC loss to Notre Dame guarantees the Dawgs will be getting in. The same thing applies to Michigan, and maybe with TCU. Michigan is not entirely a lock to make the playoff since losing to the Big Ten West champion could be catastrophic, but that is so unlikely to happen. TCU could lose to K-State or Texas in Arlington…

While Georgia and Michigan are virtual locks, the Dawgs are pretty much a certainty at this point.

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