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NBA Christmas Day betting trends (Fade Defending Champs)

By Iain MacMillan

Dec 18, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) smiles after he dunked the ball in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 18, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) smiles after he dunked the ball in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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There’s no greater Christmas Day tradition then betting on the NBA Christmas Day slate.

Sure, opening presents is fun, but it doesn’t beat sweating out a wager on a mid-afternoon NBA game.

Want some tips and tricks for betting on the five games scheduled for Christmas Day?

Let me help you out.

Defending NBA Champions struggle on Christmas

The most profitable trend over the past decade and a half has been to fade the defending champion on Christmas Day.

In the past 14 years that the defending champion has played on Christmas, they are only 4-10 against the spread. Last season, the defending champions, the Milwaukee Bucks, managed to defeat the Boston Celtics by a score of 117-113, but that wasn’t good enough to cover the spread. They were listed as 7.5-point favorites, and won by only four points.

This year, the defending champions are the Golden State Warriors. They’re listed as 4.5-point underdogs to the Memphis Grizzlies, largely due to some major injuries, including Steph Curry who will miss the game due to a shoulder injury.

The UNDER trend is officially over

For years, people would take about the UNDER trend that was a must-follow on Christmas Day. The UNDER has gone 44-31-1 dating back to 2005, but sportsbooks seem to have caught on in recent years.

It has gone just 3-7 in the last two years, failing to be profitable in either 2020 or 2021. While you might hear people advising you blindly bet the UNDER in all five games this year, don’t do it. The trend is no longer one you should follow.

NBA Christmas Day Odds

If you want the best odds to bet on for the Christmas Day games, we have that covered for you. Check out the odds for each game below.

76ers vs. Knicks Christmas Day Odds

Lakers vs. Mavericks Christmas Day Odds

Bucks vs. Celtics Christmas Day Odds

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Christmas Day Odds

Suns vs. Nuggets Christmas Day Odds

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.