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Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction and odds for Monday, January 16 (Edey, Boilermakers overwhelm Sparty)

By Reed Wallach

Dec 17, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates with center Zach Edey (15) after defeating the Davidson Wildcats at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 17, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates with center Zach Edey (15) after defeating the Davidson Wildcats at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Purdue continues to build one of the best résumés in the entire country, 16-1 on the year with the overwhelming favorite to win National Player of the Year in big man Zach Edey, and now hits the road to face Michigan State.

Sparty was on the losing end of Friday’s game against Illinois, and also may have lost Malik Hall once again after he left the game with an ankle injury. Michigan State will need all hands on deck to beat Purdue, the best offense in the country.

Let’s check out the odds and find the best bet:

Purdue vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total

Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction and pick

Both offenses should be able to operate with little resistance as each are bottom 40 in terms of generating turnovers this season, but I believe that Michigan State’s offense will fail to keep up with Purdue, who has the best offense in the country, per KenPom.

The issue for Michigan State is that they have been crushing team’s from beyond the arc, shooting 37% from deep, but they struggle inside, where more of their shots come from, shooting 48%. They don’t get to the free throw line very much, 326th in terms of free throw rate, and are right around the nationally average in offensive rebounding rate.

Sparty has been bailed out by three-point shooting this season, but that won’t fly against Purdue’s stout perimeter defense and the interior presence of Edey. Overall, Michigan State’s Shot Quality profile is one of an 8-9 team rather than a 12-5 one. Purdue is holding foes to the 24th lowest effective field goal percentage in the country.

Michigan State’s inability to cause turnovers, or cover Edey with the possibility that Hall is out is going to cost them in this one. We saw the team struggle to keep up in the second half against Illinois without the three-point shot (they missed all seven of their shots from beyond the arc) and I see a similar result here.

I’ll lay it with the road favorite.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.