WM Phoenix Open 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Our PGA Tour expert picks for the wildest event in golf as we break down our WM Phoenix Open picks, best bets and more for the first elevated event. 

The weird extended weekend at Pebble Beach has concluded with Justin Rose as the champion — not great for our PGA Tour expert picks and read on the tournament — but now we move on to golf’s party in the desert as we deliver WM Phoenix Open picks and best bets.

It’s the first elevated event of the PGA Tour season, meaning that we have a loaded field with eight of the Top 10 golfers in the world teeing it up, including Rory McIlroy making his first start stateside in 2023. Jon Rahm, defending champion Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and many, many more will be ready to take on TPC Scottsdale this week in front of the always-raucous crowd.

But before we get there, we have to take an unfortunate look back at our picks and best bets from last week. We barely cashed Nick Taylor Top 20 (+230) but it was downhill from there with Matthew Fitzpatrick missing the cut, Ben Griffin doing the same, and betting against Rose in a matchup when he won the tournament. It was down 1.2 units on the week and we need a bounce back.

What better place to do that than with our WM Phoenix Open picks for this week. So let’s dive in.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Pebble Beach: 7-17-1, -3.114 units (0-5 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $553,137.22 (Matthew Fitzpatrick at Pebble, $0)

PGA Tour expert picks for WM Phoenix Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for WM Phoenix Open: Justin Thomas (+220)

The only thing that scares me about Justin Thomas is that his approach play in his most recent starts hasn’t been up to his lofty standards. With an emphasis on ball-striking this week, that could be important. At the same time, though, JT hasn’t finished outside of the Top 20 at TPC Scottsdale in each of the last five years and has been Top 10 three times and Top 5 twice in that stretch. At these odds, I love for him to show up to a place he’s comfortable at and get back to his DNA.

Pick to Win WM Phoenix Open (0.5 Units): Xander Schauffele (+1400)

This is the second time this year that I’ve put my stock in Xander Schauffele and I feel even better about it here. He was T13 previously but now he’s coming to the WM Phoenix Open where he’s been nails and is a phenomenal overall fit with his polished all-around game. He’s finished T2 and T3 here in the past two years, so I love for him to continue in that space and come through as the winner in this elevated event.

One and Done Pick for WM Phoenix Open: Xander Schauffele

Everything that we just said about Schauffele applies here. He’s a great fit and, even if he doesn’t cash an outright for us, he’s still been good enough at this event to get us a nice chunk. We’re burning another big name after whiffing of Fitzpatrick last week.

WM Phoenix Open picks and best bets

Tom Kim Top Rest of World Player (+600)

There was a world in which I considered Tom Kim as an outright pick this week. Instead, I’m taking guys like Schauffele, Rahm, Rory, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas and more out of the mix with the Top Rest of World on FanDuel. Kim has the third-best odds behind Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama but I love his fit here. He ranks third over the past 32 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach and has continued to trend up. Plus, with the way he thrives off the crowd, I think he loves it here and comes up with a big finish at great odds.

Chris Kirk to finish Top 20 (+360)

Chris Kirk has quietly been hot with a T3 finish in each of his last two starts. On top of that, he’s doing it with accurate driving that’s a little less than long but high-quality iron play, gaining 0.54 strokes per round on approach over his last 20 rounds. After finishing T14 at this tournament last year, I like for Kirk to follow that up with another Top 20 at terrific odds.

Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 Parlay (+300)

I simply had to find a way to get the two guys who have been head and shoulders above every player in the world over the past few months on this betting card and this feels like a great way to do so. Both are ideal fits for this type of ball-striking course and Rahm has been a Top 10 machine here as the hometown guy. McIlroy, for his part, was T13 in his lone appearance here in 2021. Listed at +100 apiece to finish Top 10, I’m getting aggressive and parlaying them to both finish Top 10 this week.

Longshot pick to win WM Phoenix Open: J.T. Poston (+8500)

J.T. Poston has sneakily been really good at this tournament with three Top 26 finishes in his last four starts. More importantly, he’s playing extremely well lately, gaining more than 0.6 strokes per round over his last 16 on approach and finishing T6 in his last start. He might not win this loaded event, but he’s worth a look for some placement finishes at what is sure to be a good number.

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