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Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction and odds for ASUN Tournament Finals

By Reed Wallach

Liberty Flames guard Darius McGhee (2) reacts during the ASUN men’s basketball game between FGCU and Liberty, Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, at Alico Arena in Fort Myers, Fla.Liberty defeated FGCU 78-75.Liberty at FGCU ASUN men's basketball, Jan. 15, 2022
Liberty Flames guard Darius McGhee (2) reacts during the ASUN men’s basketball game between FGCU and Liberty, Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, at Alico Arena in Fort Myers, Fla.Liberty defeated FGCU 78-75.Liberty at FGCU ASUN men's basketball, Jan. 15, 2022 /
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A ticket to the ‘Big Dance’ will be punched on Sunday afternoon.

ASUN No. 1 seed Liberty has faced little resistance all season long en route to a 15-3 conference record, but did lose their lone matchup to No. 2 seed Kennesaw State last month. The two will meet in the Conference Championship Game with a spot in the NCAA Tournament on the line.

The Flames are a considerable favorite on a neutral floor with Darius McGhee playing at a high level, can they get it done and get to the NCAA Tournament?

Let’s first check out the odds and break down this title game:

Liberty vs. Kennesaw State odds, spread and total

Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction and pick

The Owls rallied from double digits in the second half to stun the Flames despite McGhee hanging 43 points on the home team.

Liberty plays at a methodical pace and bombs from the perimeter with the second highest three-point rate in the conference at 46%. Kennesaw State will allow the three-point shot, 11th in three-point rate allowed, but also generate more turnovers than any team in the ASUN. If the team is able to blitz McGhee and force the ball out of his hands, the Flames are far more pedestrian. The 5’9″ guard is second in the country in usage rate.

It’s worth noting that the first three rounds were played at the higher seed home stadium, and the Owls home upset from last month gives them home court here. It’s notable in this game considering Liberty is 346th in away from home rating, meaning the team suffers one of the most dramatic drop offs in play when they aren’t at home.

Liberty’s offense is the best unit on the floor, but they play at a methodical pace and Kennesaw’s ability to cause turnovers can make this Flames team uncomfortable that has played far worse away from home and struggled to put this team away last month.

I’ll take the underdog in the title game to keep this competitive.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.